The basic concept of 1
Announcement time
Usually, the non-farm employment data in the United States will be released on Friday night in the first week of each month, but there are special circumstances. For example, (September 20 13 non-farm employment data), the United States suffered the first government shutdown since 17. Therefore, many economic data, including non-agricultural employment data in September, were not released on time, and were delayed until the evening of June 22nd, 10.
employed population
The number of non-agricultural employees can reflect the development and growth of manufacturing and service industries. The reduction in quantity means that enterprises reduce production and the economy enters a depression. With the rapid development of social economy, consumption will naturally increase, and jobs in the consumer and service industries will also increase. When the number of non-agricultural employees increases significantly, it shows that the economic situation is healthy, which should be conducive to the exchange rate in theory and may indicate an increase in interest rates, and the potential high interest rate will prompt the foreign exchange market to promote the appreciation of the country's currency more, and vice versa. Therefore, this data is an important indicator to observe the degree and situation of socio-economic and financial development. The number of non-agricultural employees is one of the employment reports, which mainly counts job changes outside agricultural production.
Employment report
Employment reports, including employment-related information, are obtained through two independent surveys, namely, enterprise surveys and household surveys. Among them, the enterprise survey provides the employment situation, average hourly work and total hourly index of non-agricultural sectors; Household surveys provide information about the labor force, household employment and unemployment rate. Among all the economic indicators that the foreign exchange market can respond to, the employment report is usually regarded as "the jewel in the crown". It is the most sensitive monthly economic indicator in the market, and investors can usually see a lot of market sensitive information from it, among which the foreign exchange market pays special attention to the seasonal changes of monthly non-agricultural employment. The non-farm employment data in the United States is one of the most important economic data in the foreign exchange market every month. The publication of this data may be a turning point in determining the direction of the foreign exchange market, or it may bring about violent fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, leading to the market's ambiguity about the direction of foreign exchange (for details, please pay attention to the official WeChat account "Global Voice of Foreign Exchange").
Non-agricultural data
On weekdays, we will hear non-agricultural data from many foreign exchange news and comments, and they are quite important fundamental data. Every time this data is released, it will cause violent shocks in the stock market, futures market, foreign exchange market, etc., or a turning point in a wave of trends, or a breakthrough point in consolidating the market. What is non-agricultural data? Today, let's talk about it briefly. Literally, it is actually a non-agricultural population, or more popularly, it is not working in farmland, but engaged in business and work in cities. In fact, what we usually refer to as non-agricultural data generally refers to the non-agricultural employment rate, non-agricultural employment number and unemployment rate in the United States, which are released once a month by the US Department of Labor. It is usually released at 8: 30 or 9: 30 pm Beijing time on the first Friday of each month, reflecting the trend of the US economy. The data shows that the economy is improving, and the data difference shows that the economy is getting worse.
Non-agricultural viewpoint
The most concerned US economic data in the foreign exchange market is the employment data released by the US Department of Labor on the first Friday of each month.
There are several reasons why this data can have such a great impact on the stock market and foreign exchange market.
First, this data was released in time. This data is the first important economic data released every month. This data is released by the Labor Department within one week after the investigation, so the market can keep abreast of the latest employment situation in the United States.
Second, this data points out the employment situation in the United States in detail, and the published information is very useful for predicting the economic situation of the whole country. Therefore, when the market gets these data, it can make a rough forecast of GDP.
Third, this data is related to the income of the average American family. Obviously, when the national employment situation improves and income increases, it will drive all consumption links, and about 70% of the growth of the American economy can be said to be mainly internal consumption, so knowing the employment data can predict the overall consumption situation in the United States.
Another reason why the market pays so much attention to this employment data is that the forecasts made by analysts and economists in the market are often embarrassing, and the actual figures are often quite different from the market expectations, so the whole market will pay attention to the actual figures to adjust its own forecasts of the economic situation.
This employment data mainly consists of two independent surveys, one from household survey and the other from enterprise survey. Household survey, as its name implies, refers to the investigation of national employment by telephone and mail. Enterprise survey is the company's report on employees' employment and wages. From the above two channels, investigators can compile employment data.
The data of family tone comes from 60 thousand families in the United States, and the general response rate of the survey is 95%. All surveys will be conducted at the end of this month. In fact, the survey results are of great reference value to many industries, such as advertising. Because this survey report includes the general employment situation and prospects of the people, as well as the employment situation of different age groups, and even the employment situation of different genders and races can be found in the report. According to the data obtained from household survey, the unemployment rate is compiled.
The other is enterprise survey, which is considered as more valuable data by the market. The survey data comes from 400,000 companies and government departments, including 500 different industries, covering more than 40 million employed people, accounting for nearly half of all non-agricultural employed people. The data obtained from the survey include the number of new non-agricultural employees, salary trends in different industries, employment situation, weekly working hours, wages, overtime wages and so on. Therefore, this enterprise survey report can tell us every important link of the employment situation in detail, which is of great reference value for understanding the development of the whole economy.
Two different camps
As the report on non-farm payrolls in the United States in June 2009 is about to be released on Thursday, economists with non-farm data are divided into two completely different groups according to their predictions of specific data: optimists predict that the number of non-farm payrolls will only decrease by 300,000 in June, while pessimists believe that the number of payrolls will decrease by more than 400,000. According to the authoritative media survey, the median expectation of economists is that the number of non-farm employees in the United States will decrease by 350,000 in June, and the unemployment rate will hit 9.6%, which is very close to the average expectation of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) through the calculation model-decrease by 344,000. Some labor market indicators released before June 2009 are very disappointing (please pay attention to WeChat official account "Global Foreign Exchange Voice" for details).
optimist
However, there are still some employment indicators showing the dawn of hope. Employment consulting company challenger, gray &; According to a report released by Christmas on Wednesday, the number of planned layoffs announced by American companies in June dropped by 33% from the previous month to 74,393, the fifth consecutive month of decline, and the lowest level since the announcement of 53,579 layoffs in March 2008. According to data released by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday, the manufacturing employment index rose to 40.7 in June and 34.3 in May, indicating that the pace of shrinking job market is slowing down.
Optimists point out that the improvement of the overall economic situation will play a positive role. Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics said that the job market, which entered the cold winter after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, began to thaw. He predicted that the number of non-farm employees would decrease by 250,000 in June. He also pointed out: Although the job market is still weak, we believe that the employment data released on Thursday will be better than expected. Although economists have different views on the prospects of the non-farm payrolls report in June, they all agree that the pace of layoffs has slowed down compared with the first quarter; 20 12 in the first three months, the number of non-agricultural employees in the United States decreased by 69 1 10,000 on average every month, which was the worst performance of the job market since the third quarter of 1945.
Be careful.
Be cautious before releasing non-agricultural data. Take the reaction of the foreign exchange market when the non-agricultural data was released in June 2065438+00 as an example.
meaning
No economic indicator can stir the stock market and bond market like the employment situation report. Why is this? First of all, the employment situation report is very timely, just one week after the observation month. Secondly, this report is rich and specific in the job market and household income, which is very useful for forecasting the economy. Third, let's face it-we are talking about the welfare of American workers. Wages and salaries for employment are the main sources of family income. The more workers earn and buy, the greater the role of promoting economic progress. If fewer people work, it will lead to a decline in expenditure and enterprises will suffer. Because household expenditure accounts for two-thirds of the total economy, you should understand why the investment community is so concerned about the employment situation report. There is another reason why employment situation reports can control financial markets in this way: employment figures are often unexpected. If there is little other information this month, it will be difficult for experts to predict the number of unemployed people. Of course, the highlight of the Employment Situation Report is the unemployment growth rate, that is, the percentage of the unemployed social labor force. What do we mean by social labor force? All employed and unemployed people defined as 16 or above (excluding the population of the army, prisons, mental hospitals and sanatoriums). Economists measure the monthly changes in the job market from two different sources. One is based on family survey, that is, the government makes telephone and letter visits to families. The other is to compile a (payroll) survey and directly ask the enterprise about the recent personnel changes. Combining these two items, we can draw a general picture about the labor market-in a broader sense, about the economic situation.
4 Exchange rate impact
Non-agricultural data can greatly affect the dollar value of the money market. A vibrant employment report can push up interest rates and make the dollar more attractive to foreign investors. They can earn interest income by holding US Treasury bonds. On the other hand, a bad employment report will weaken the demand for dollars, because it will bring trouble to the US stock market and put downward pressure on interest rates. Both of them will make the dollar less attractive to foreigners.
Five precious metals
Anyone who has worked in the precious metals market knows that the impact of non-agriculture on the price trend of precious metals, especially spot silver, is enormous, and the price often fluctuates greatly before and after the data is released. In order to make investors better profit from non-agriculture, we will deeply analyze the impact of non-agricultural data on precious metals.
First of all, we need to understand what non-agricultural means. As the name implies, non-agriculture refers to the value of non-agricultural employment population, and as the world's largest economic power, we usually refer to the non-agricultural value of the United States. As a non-agricultural employment population, non-agricultural employment includes the employment population of manufacturing and service industries, which also reflects the current economic development level of the country, because manufacturing and service industries are the secondary industry and the tertiary industry respectively, and their employment population directly reflects the consumption level of the country. If its value becomes smaller, it means that the productivity of enterprises in this country has decreased, the economy has entered a depression, the consumption level of the people has decreased, and the market has fallen into a highly sensitive period. On the contrary, the increase in value shows that the social economy is good, the productivity of enterprises is high, the consumption power of the people is enhanced, and the market is highly active. But what effect does it have on precious metals?
American non-agricultural data and its unemployment rate data are released together, and the two data complement each other, which can often achieve twice the result with half the effort. The above three aspects show that American non-agricultural data are closely related to the country's consumer market and economic development. Therefore, the increase in non-agricultural data shows that the US economy is improving, which is good for the US dollar and bad for gold and silver; On the other hand, if its value is reduced, it shows that the US economy is in a downturn, which is naturally bad for the US dollar and good for gold and silver.
However, we can often see that non-agricultural data has three values: the previous value, the predicted value and the actual published value. The previous value is the actual value published last month and is a basis for this data. On this basis, the forecast value is the market's forecast of the economic development of the United States according to the economic data of the past month, and it is also a numerical forecast of the subsequent non-agricultural data. The forecast value represents the market expectation. Therefore, in order to judge the market reaction through the actual published value, it is necessary to compare the difference between the actual published value and the predicted value to further judge the price trend of gold and silver. Simply put, when the actual published value is greater than the predicted value, gold and silver are bad; When the actual published value is less than the predicted value, gold and silver are bullish.
Take this month's non-agricultural data (20 13.5.3) as an example. Before the data was released, the market began to warm up expectations. After the data was released, the actual data was much larger than the predicted value, and the price of gold and silver began to accelerate, but it returned to normal after that day. Therefore, we should also understand this kind of economic data (for details, please pay attention to WeChat official account "Global Foreign Exchange Voice".
6 gold price impact
affect
How will fundamental factors affect the next trend? The trend of the dollar is very important in the fundamentals, and the economic data of the United States is the main factor affecting the trend of the dollar. The most important data in American economic data is non-farm employment data. So how do ordinary investors deal with the impact and influence of non-agricultural data on financial markets? Next, I will give some tips on the influence of gold price on non-agricultural data according to my actual experience on non-agricultural data.
First of all, we must be clear about the relationship between gold and the US dollar, because gold is priced in US dollars, because the initiator of Jamaica Agreement kicked gold out of the monetary history stage is the United States, and because the US gold reserve is more than 8,000 tons, ranking first among all countries and organizations. Therefore, the trend of the dollar has always been the weather vane of gold, and the historical and traditional relationship between the two is negatively correlated. The strength of the US dollar and the weakness of gold made gold rise from more than 500 US dollars to a historical high of 1.032 US dollars. However, we also see that since the outbreak of the financial crisis, there is sometimes a positive correlation between gold and the dollar, and the positive and negative trends make ordinary investors lose their dependence on the judgment of the gold price trend.
Secondly, the impact of American non-agricultural data on the dollar is transmitted to the gold market, and the magnitude of the two will definitely be inconsistent. Therefore, the results of non-agricultural data in the United States will first affect the trend of the US dollar and have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market. In the trend of gold, I think that passive wave technology analysis and learning are almost carried out at the same time. This means that it is too late to enter the market when the non-agricultural data is released. At the same time, there is also a time delay in deciding the direction of buying and selling gold and entering the market according to the quality of the data. So I suggest you go before the data is released. After the data is published, it is often full of shock and temptation. In addition, the sudden fluctuation after the data was released caused traders to increase the trading spread, which made traders pay a great cost. It is extremely difficult to complete this transaction.
Thirdly, the influence of data on gold price is related to the influence of basic trend, that is, whether news affects price or price confirms news. More importantly, do not discuss it here. The impact of non-agricultural data on gold prices is definitely there. When the data of non-agricultural uncertainty changes, the first thing to do is to judge the trend of gold itself. Combining the fundamental factors and technical trends that affect the gold price, I think it is very important to focus on the technical influence before the release of non-agricultural data, that is, what is the position of the technical surface of the gold price. Any news will be confirmed in the technical trend. The function of technical analysis is to reveal and warn the future trend in advance, and only confirm or prove the trend after the non-agricultural news is released.
Fourth, before the data is released, conduct a long-term analysis of gold prices, such as a comprehensive analysis of monthly, weekly and daily lines to determine the position of the current trend in a long period? For example, the non-agricultural data gold price to be released on the evening of June 4 is around $65,438 +0.200. This position is near the historical high of $65,438+$0.248, and also near the position where the historical high of gold is adjusted. This determines whether the general trend is bullish or not, and more adjustments are needed when the adjustment does not break through the historical high of $65,438+$0.248. Secondly, we have established the key support levels of 1 198 and 1 187, and 1 166 in the long-term trend. With these positions as the basis, we generally don't always consider doing more on the preparation of existing adjustment ideas for market fluctuations after the release of non-agricultural data, because yesterday's daily K-line was a huge negative line callback, and the main tone should be adjustment, and shorting rallies is the main choice. With this direction, we should pay enough attention to the shock after non-agricultural data.
Fifth, of course, there are data that have a great influence on the trend of gold prices. For investors, everyone's situation is different. Different investors and investors in different positions should have different choices, including psychological quality, mainly whether the psychological quality of trading is stable. Non-agricultural data will not determine the general trend of gold. Therefore, investors with small funds, prudent investment, large positions and lock positions can all choose to wait and see; Ultra-short-term investors can adopt the mode of two-handed operation, hold the key support and resistance, see the breakthrough direction after non-agriculture, and operate in which direction to break that direction. There is a difficulty here, that is, the temptation of the market is greater than that of the air. I think it needs backhand thinking and preparation to break this market difficulty. Once the stop loss is in the wrong direction, backhand is the way to seize the interests of large fluctuations. Of course, it is also possible to continue to make mistakes and then stop loss. Investment is to get a certain income under appropriate risks, but each loss is less than the income (please pay attention to WeChat official account "Global Foreign Exchange Voice" for details).
Relevant policies
Unemployment exists in every country, and the existence of the unemployed will increase social instability, so every country will have unemployment protection suitable for its own national conditions.