18 Looking back at the real economy, the deleveraging marked by the new asset management regulations and its supporting rules has greatly reduced non-standard financing, while the on-balance-sheet credit expansion cannot bear the huge volume of non-standards. The deterioration of exports caused by external factors and the high leverage caused by residents buying houses restrict domestic demand, which makes the business environment of enterprises deteriorate and the economic growth rate slow down steadily. 19 external demand is not optimistic, and domestic demand will be the main driving force for economic transformation and development. The key to boosting domestic demand is to benefit residents and enterprises by reducing taxes and fees, and further release the reform dividend!
Demand: Downstream real estate and passenger cars weakened, home appliances and textile services improved, and entertainment weakened. The steel and cement in the middle reaches improved and the chemical industry weakened. The upstream coal is weak and colored. Delivery is weak.
Price: 1 1.70 The year-on-year increase of house prices in the whole city rebounded. Last week, domestic capital prices were mixed, and international oil prices fell.
Inventory: Downstream real estate is de-capitalized, and passenger cars are replenished. Mid-stream iron and steel ore, cement chemical supplement. Upstream coal and colored differentiation.
Downstream industries:
Real estate: since 65438+February, the growth rate of real estate sales in 4 1 cities has slowed down, and land transactions in 100 cities have slowed down. In the first five days of 12, the growth rate of urban land production and sales turned from negative to-1.5%. In the first 25 days of 12, the growth rate of urban land production and sales was 0.4%, which was lower than that in the first five days of 1 10, and was almost zero. Among them, the sales of commercial housing in first-and second-tier cities rebounded in the early stage of the third and fourth lines. Last week, the ratio of commercial housing deposits to sales in the top ten cities dropped to 37.8 weeks. Land market transactions are still slowing down. Last week, the land transaction area of Baicheng declined, and the year-on-year growth rate turned from positive to negative.
Passenger cars: In the first three weeks of June 65438+February, the number of passenger cars was still at the bottom, and the operating rate continued to fall. In June 5438+065438+ 10, the automobile production and sales were still weak, and the growth rate of the main income of the automobile manufacturing industry was -3.7%, which was narrower than that in June 5438+ 10, but mainly due to the low base, the cumulative growth rate dropped to 4.7%, which still maintained a downward trend. In the first three weeks of 65438+February, the growth rate of wholesale and retail of passenger cars was -30% and -35% respectively, which was significantly lower than that of 165438+ 10, and it was still bottoming out. Last week, the operating rate of steel tires also continued to fall back to 66.8%, which is now at a low level in the same period of the previous year. The pattern of weak supply and demand has not changed significantly.
Household appliances: In June165438+1October, the three major white electricity exports rose more and fell less, and the sales growth rate of air conditioner manufacturers rebounded. During the period of 165438+ 10, the export growth rate of the three major white goods rose more or less, among which the export growth rate of air conditioners rose sharply to 46.6%, while that of refrigerators rose slightly to 14%. Only the export growth rate of washing machines turned from positive to negative to-1.3% due to the high base in the same period last year. The sales growth rate of air-conditioning manufacturers in June165438+10.3% was also significantly higher because of the low base in the same period last year, among which the export performance was particularly bright, or it was related to the "grabbing orders" effect of exports. 165438+ 10 In the month of October, the storage-sales ratio of air-conditioning manufacturers dropped slightly to 1.03, but it was still at a high level in the same period of the previous year.
Steel: Last week, steel prices rebounded, the operating rate continued to fall, and social stocks went down. Last week, steel prices rebounded, and the prices of threads and hot plates all rose, but they were still at a low level. Different steel price increases lead to gross profit differentiation per ton of steel, thread rebound, and hot plate prices drop slightly. From June 5438 to early February, the crude steel output of key steel enterprises increased by 7.5%, which was slightly lower than that in June165438+1October. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate also continued to decline to 65. 1%, which further narrowed the gap with the same period 17, and the supply tended to shrink. 65438+In the first half of February, the inventory growth rate of key steel enterprises dropped sharply to 2%, while the social inventory destocking rate slowed down, which directly pointed to the dealer's inventory accumulation behavior.
Cement: Last week, the national average price of cement rose slightly, and the storage capacity ratio was close to the same period last year. Last week, the average national cement price rose slightly, with the chain growth rate rising to 0.07%, and the de-capacity rate continued to rise to 48.9%, close to the same period last year. 65438+In late February, most areas in the north entered the off-season, and the demand was obviously weakened. Due to the support of peak shifting production, the price is relatively stable; After the weather in southern China improved, the downstream demand rebounded obviously, the delivery of enterprises basically returned to normal, and the cement price remained high and stable. In terms of regions, North China and South China remained stable, while East China was stable and fell, while Southwest China was stable and small.
Chemical industry: last week, the price of PTA industrial chain generally fell, and the inventory of polyester POY rose. Last week, the prices of PTA industrial chain products generally fell, among which the prices of polyester POY, polyester chips and PTA all fell again. The price of PTA industrial chain products reappeared and fell due to the falling oil price and weak downstream demand. Last week, the inventory of polyester POY rose to 13 days, which was at a high level in the same period last year. Last week, the load rate of PTA industrial chain rose more and fell less, only the polyester factory fell slightly. Overall, the production of the industry is stable and the demand is weak.
Machinery: 1 1 month, the growth rate of industry income increased more and decreased less, and the industry prosperity improved. During the period of 165438+ 10, the income growth rate of machinery sub-industry increased more and less, with general equipment, railway ships and electrical machinery rising to 9.4%, 6.8% and 7% respectively, while the income growth rate of special equipment industry rose sharply to 16.8%, and only instruments and meters fell to 0.7%. On the one hand, the rebound of industry revenue growth rate stems from the low base in the same period last year, on the other hand, it also reflects the improvement of industry prosperity, or is related to the improvement of construction under the short-board policy.
Electricity: 65438+26 days before February, the growth rate of coal used for power generation narrowed, and industrial production was stable in the short term. In the first six days before the end of 65438+February, the average daily coal consumption growth rate of the six major power generation groups turned from positive to negative to -3.2%, and the chain growth rate turned from negative to negative to -0.9%, setting a new low in the same period of the previous year. However, in the first 26 days of 65438+February, the average daily growth rate of coal used for power generation rebounded to -3.3%, which was significantly narrower than that in165438+1October, pointing to the short-term stabilization of industrial production. However, the operating rate of major industries such as automobiles and steel has begun to decline continuously, which means that the pressure on the subsequent production side still exists.
Upstream industries and delivery:
Coal: Last week, coal prices fell flat, power plant stocks dried up, and steel mills replenished their stocks. Last week, coal prices fell flat, and the price of coal in Qinhuangdao Port continued to fall. In the first 26 days of 65438+February, the year-on-year growth rate of coal consumption for power generation of the six major groups was narrower than that of 165438+ 10. Last week, the number of coal storage days in power plants continued to drop to 22 days. Last week, the operating rate of blast furnace dropped again, and the coking coal inventory days of steel mills continued to rise to 15.2 days, which has been at a high level in the same period of the previous years.
Non-ferrous metals: last week, LME copper prices fell, aluminum prices rose, copper stocks fell, and aluminum stocks rose. Last week, the price of basic metals rose more and fell less. The Indian court lifted the ban on closing the copper smelter of mining company Vedanta, and copper prices fell on average last week. China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association held a symposium on some key electrolytic aluminum enterprises. It is estimated that the scale of electrolytic aluminum production in China will exceed 800,000 tons/year in the future, and the aluminum price rebounded slightly last week.
Commodities: Last week, the price of crude oil fell, the CRB index fell, and the dollar index fell. Last week, the price of crude oil fell again, and Russia's oil production in June reached a record high of 5438+February. The market lacks confidence in the time and intensity of OPEC's production reduction. Last week, the CRB average index fell. Last week, the US dollar index fell, and the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate hike and lowered its economic growth forecast. At present, the interest rate level is close to the bottom area of neutral interest rate estimated by policy makers.
Transportation: Last week, both BDI and CCFI indexes fell, and the highway logistics freight index fell. Last week, distribution and transportation performed poorly, and both BDI and CCFI indexes fell. The average rent of the Cape of Good Hope ships decreased by 16%, Panama ships decreased by 2.7%, and super handy ships increased by 0. 1%. Last week, the freight index of highway logistics dropped.