1. Pendulum principle
That is, the price of any asset can't go up indefinitely, nor can it go down indefinitely. Like a pendulum, it will eventually return to balance. The greater the deviation, the greater the reverse adjustment, and vice versa. Investors often use this principle rigidly, hoping to seize the inflection point in the obvious unilateral market and constantly operate against the market, thus causing huge losses. The price itself will not tell investors when to reverse the trend. Only by grasping the fundamentals and combining the trend analysis in technical analysis can we correctly apply this theory to grasp the medium and long-term running trend.
2. Water bed principle
If you press it from one side, the other side will protrude because of the squeeze of water. If the waterbed is compared to the whole financial market, then the water in the waterbed is the capital flow, and the capital flow between financial markets shows the relationship of ups and downs. Asset prices are driven by funds, and the increase or decrease of funds in the financial market in the short term can be ignored relative to the total stock. By analyzing and grasping the capital flow between different sub-markets, we can judge the operating ideas of institutions and grasp the long-term trend of the market. The reference indicators for analysis usually include stock index, yield curve and CRB index (Commodity Research Bureau).
3. Securities investment theory
Kyle Weitz published an article entitled "Portfolio Selection" in Finance magazine 1952 in March, which advocated taking the variance of return as the measure of risk, and put forward a model with the variance of return of portfolio as the objective function, which laid the foundation of modern investment theory. Important conclusions:
(1) Diversified investment can effectively invest risks;
(2) The lower the correlation of assets, the smaller the risk of portfolio.
Second, the main points that need to be mastered in investment
1. Grasp the market focus
The trend direction of the market center line is generally determined by a market focus, and the market is constantly looking for the focus of change as the material for speculation. Of course, the transformation of the market center of gravity is also done unconsciously, and there can be no obvious dividing line. Inference can only be made through market public opinion and some relevant information, and the possibility of inference error is not ruled out.
2. Discipline is the most important thing.
Before deciding to enter the market, we must first recognize whether our risks and expected returns are equal, so as to determine the target entry price and stop loss price. Especially novices often forget the original plan after entering the market, or even if they remember it, they can't strictly abide by it, especially when the price is about to reach its stop-loss price, compromise with themselves, temporarily change the established stop-loss price or even cancel it altogether, resulting in huge losses. In the ever-changing financial market, if you don't obey the discipline and strictly stop the loss, there is no way to survive, because you are far from being indifferent to the price.
The market is always right.
The biggest mistake of investors is often that they refuse to admit defeat in front of the market and bow their heads to stick to their own views. But remember, the market price already contains all the information of the market. The market will never be wrong, it's its own fault. Don't be self-righteous, don't be vain, decide your own action plan according to the information given to you by the market, and admit your mistakes when you make a mistake. This is the way for the market to last forever.
4. Don't trust the law
There is absolutely no so-called law in the trend of any financial instrument, and there is no formula that can absolutely guarantee profit, otherwise everyone will become a multi-millionaire. The psychology that market trends exist regularly assumes that history will repeat itself. Many experts often study the causes of ups and downs in the past, and then expect that as long as these reasons reappear, the general trend will also rise and fall. However, before you accept any such statement, you might as well ask yourself why thousands of smart people have spent decades on research, but they have not become rich. Perhaps this will make their brains clearer and they will not easily believe in the so-called laws.
Follow the trend
As a global market, capital market or gold market can't determine the market price even by speculative funds with huge capital, let alone individual investors. Therefore, the wisest thing to do is to follow the market trend, which is tantamount to overcorrecting.
Three, the quality of investment in various assets or risk analysis
The ability of asset management is mainly measured by whether the proportion of various assets is reasonable and the turnover speed. Asset quality is an important sign and final result of asset management risk.
Zhang Xinmin believes that asset quality refers to the liquidity of assets or the quality of further utilization by enterprises. The size of asset management risk is ultimately manifested as the difference between the book value of assets and the realized value or potential value.
On the other hand, Li Zhiyuan believes that the risk of asset management can be manifested in the texture, structure, performance, durability and the old and new degree of assets.
The risks of corporate asset management are mainly manifested in: whether the realized value is high and stable; Whether the asset structure is reasonable and whether it is scientifically matched with short-term and long-term funding sources; The size of the ratio of non-performing assets; Whether the asset turnover speed is fast; Whether the acquisition, use and sale of assets are legal; Whether the use and consumption of assets are beneficial to people's physical and mental health.
1. Risk analysis of monetary funds
Unreasonable holding of monetary funds; The internal control system in the process of monetary fund income and expenditure is flawed and the actual implementation is not thorough, resulting in waste and uneconomical; Do not strictly abide by the provisions of the state on the management of monetary funds; The quality of monetary funds is not high (different currencies have different forms of expression) and there is a risk of asset depreciation.
The internal control risk in the company's monetary fund revenue and expenditure is mainly reflected in the moral hazard and adverse selection caused by the out-of-control management right of monetary funds. The Company shall, as far as possible, complete the daily fund revenue and expenditure links by different authorized personnel or departments; Execute the examination and approval authority in strict accordance with the stop-loss point specified by the company; It is strictly forbidden to intervene in the speculation of derivative financial instruments without restraint; The annual salary of executives should be linked to the economic benefits of the company, and the gap with ordinary employees should be less than 5 times; In order to improve the enthusiasm of employees and ensure the safety, integrity and operational efficiency of the company's monetary funds.
2. Risk analysis of accounts receivable
First, the accounts receivable have a short age and a small amount; The proportion of accounts receivable with long aging is lower than that of the same industry;
Second, the debtor has a reasonable composition, high reputation, stable operation, timely communication, sufficient and timely information about the debtor, and little or no contact with the debtor;
Third, the enterprise's credit policy is high-quality, the credit standard is tight, the credit conditions vary with the debtor's integrity, the collection policy pays attention to the principle of cost-effectiveness, and the collection amount is linked to the collector's salary and bonus;
Fourth, the amount and proportion of bad debts are lower than those of the same industry and within the controllable range; The transfer of mortgage guarantee of accounts receivable is flexible, legal and compliant;
Fifth, the receivable items allow the debtor to set mortgage or guarantee creditor's rights or buy the other party's products on equal credit;
Sixth, the loss rate of bad debts, opportunity cost and management cost are lower than those of the same industry;
Seventh, the sales cash payment rate is high, the payment guarantee rate is high, and the daily cash demand of enterprises is low in dependence on the payment of accounts receivable;
Eighth, the promotion function and inventory reduction function have obvious effects.
Example 20- 1 changhong's accounts receivable were cheated: changhong belongs to the highly competitive electronic appliance industry, and in order to expand overseas markets in a hurry, 200 1 adopted the strategy of entering the American market. All overseas agents were handed over to APEX, which has a certain influence overseas. Changhong's president traded with APEX in the form of goods first and payment later. Since July 20001year, a company's color TV sets have been continuously sent to the United States. Although the factoring procedure has been adopted, by the end of 2004, Changhong's debt under the name of APEX Company was as high as 470 million US dollars, equivalent to nearly 4 billion yuan. Changhong has been overwhelmed by the huge burden and has to make a huge provision for bad debts for this high debt. I would like to ask: ① What is the reason for Changhong's huge accounts receivable being cheated? ② How to prevent similar incidents?
3. Inventory risk point analysis
Inventory structure risk mainly refers to the risks brought to enterprises by the unreasonable proportion of raw materials, products in process and finished products. The risk of inventory depreciation refers to the risk that the inventory value is lower than the expected value, the cold back is sluggish, the inventory is unsalable and the inventory price drops due to the damage or deterioration of the inventory. The reason for the depreciation of inventory may be that the physical quality of inventory is inherently insufficient (natural quality); Inventory aging is not optimistic (shelf life, content stability, technical relevance); The market supply exceeds demand, and the turnover speed is too fast and too slow. The risk of unreasonable inventory holding refers to the loss caused to the enterprise by too high or too low inventory holding. Excessive inventory holding will increase the storage cost, opportunity cost and management cost of inventory. If the inventory is too low, it will increase the purchase cost, shortage loss and reputation loss of the inventory.
4. Long-term investment risk point analysis
Whether the comprehensive feasibility evaluation before investment is scientific; Whether the bidding procedure is legal and compliant; Whether there is a scientific post-project evaluation during or after the investment; Whether the realized value of long-term investment is greater than the investment cost and grows steadily; Whether the net income from investment is positive and growing steadily; Whether the investment income of the investment exceeds the income level of the national debt; Whether the financial status, operating results and cash flow of the invested entity are stable, and whether the market price is higher than the book value and stable; Whether there is a short-term phenomenon of long-term investment (it can increase the liquidity ratio but not increase the solvency), and the long-term investment risk control mainly refers to whether the company's investment risk is properly measured and controlled and whether it is symmetrical with the income; Whether the enterprise has the ability to analyze the uncertainty of investment and whether it has the risk early warning and prevention mechanism before and during investment; Whether there is a risk accountability assessment mechanism after investment.
5. Risk analysis of fixed assets
The internal control risks of fixed assets are mainly the risks brought by blind purchase and construction, capital expenditure crowding out production costs, unrecorded inventory surplus of fixed assets, untreated idle fixed assets, unrecorded residual value of fixed assets, inflated (depreciated) depreciation and inflated maintenance costs. The upgrading ability of fixed assets is poor, the physical performance is unstable, and there is no value-added potential; Low turnover rate leads to low ability to create income and profits; Idle or bad fixed assets account for a large proportion, and the disposal opportunity is not appropriate, resulting in asset losses; The ability to update fixed assets is weak, there is no decision on economic life, and technology is always in a backward state; The mortgage substitution rate of fixed assets is low, and the loan ratio is not accepted by financial institutions; It is not appropriate to lease and purchase fixed assets; The management procedures of fixed assets purchase, requisition, depreciation, overhaul, scrap cleaning and transfer are not standardized, the capital chain is often broken, and the guarantee rate is not high.
6. Risk analysis of land use right
Whether the company has idle land reserve; Whether there is a secret reserve land value accounting and full disclosure; Whether there are disputes and lawsuits about the use, transfer and lease of land use rights; Whether the land use benefit is high enough; Whether the land transfer and lease prices are reasonable, compliant and legal; Whether the land reserve is too little or too much; State-owned enterprises originally allocated land for free, and whether the income distribution of re-transfer is legal or not.
7. Risk analysis of intangible assets
First, the ability of enterprises to research and develop intangible assets is weak and unsustainable;
Second, intangible assets have weak ability to create excess returns and short time;
Third, intangible assets do not have the value-added potential of external transfer or investment;
Fourth, intangible assets are not well combined with other assets;
Fifth, the intellectual capital of enterprises is weak and has no potential, and the ability to control intangible assets is weakening year by year.
If an enterprise obviously owns intangible assets envied by others, including foreigners, but doesn't know how to invest it as a value, how to re-export registered trademarks abroad, and how to protect, cultivate and use them flexibly, then the enterprise is also looking for food with a golden doll. Faced with high-priced foreign acquisitions, it will be tempted to lose control and ownership sooner or later. Cloisonne, four classical novels, Goubuli, etc. It was first registered by Japan, and brands such as Wuliangye, Hongxing Erguotou, Jiugui Liquor and Trilateral were first registered by South Korea).
Example 20-2 Assume that the annual net profit of Hainan Guilu Liquor Industry is 250 million yuan, the income tax rate is 33%, and the minimum yield of 1996 is 20%. The value of tangible assets is 6.5438 yuan+6.3475 million yuan. Assuming that the enterprise can survive for 60 years, the exchange rate is 654.38+0: 8.5. What is the intangible assets value of this winery?
8. Risk analysis of derivative financial instrument investment
The actual operation must be carried out by trained professional institutions or talents who invest in derivative financial products; It must be carried out on the basis of careful prediction, rigorous argumentation, full consultation and approval by the shareholders' meeting; It is necessary to break the whole into parts step by step, set a stop loss point, and not blindly rush to the point where it is uncontrollable and irreversible; Senior financial managers of enterprises must establish the concept of capital safety first and income second; Once there is a huge investment risk in derivative financial instruments, it can be remedied in time and the responsibility of relevant personnel for decision-making mistakes can be investigated.
In the second half of 2003, CAO Singapore started to participate in oil futures options trading. At that time, the oil price fluctuated and rose, and Cao won the first battle, making a profit of $5.8 million in 2003. In the first quarter of 2004, when the oil price rose above $30, Cao began to short, and the more he lost, the more he increased his position. Finally, he shorted 52 million barrels of oil, and was forced to close his position above the oil price of 50 yuan, with a total loss of about 550 million US dollars.
9. Venture Capital Fund
Venture capital fund, also known as venture capital, is the equity capital invested by professional financiers in emerging, rapidly developing enterprises with great competitive potential.
The characteristics of venture capital fund are: ① it belongs to high-risk investment; 30% success, 30% level, 40% failure; (2) It belongs to high-yield investment: 1995 ~ 1997, with American returns of 48%, 40% and 36%, and its contribution rate to the national economy is 65% ~ 85%; ③ Portfolio investment; ④ Long-term investment: 3-7 years; (5) It belongs to equity capital, which makes up for the lack of functions that the government can't invest and banks can't lend to support high-tech enterprises; ⑥ It belongs to professional investment; ⑦ Integrate financing and investment, raise capital and provide management services; It is run by venture capital companies-mostly private partnerships; Pet-name ruby venture capitalists need to be bold and cautious, think twice before you act; Attending venture capitalists are both investors and operators; The ultimate goal of venture capital is not to hold shares, but to withdraw.
Enlightenment from the development of venture capital funds in the United States: ① The tax rate should be low when the law is guaranteed. The government should create conditions, not directly intervene. Investment targets are mainly high-tech projects, but not limited to this. ④ Talent training and selection is the key to the success of venture capital.
A well-known world venture capital company: chip manufacturer Intel Corporation-venture capitalist Roque; American data equipment company is $70,000, and after 14, the stock market value is $355 million-venture capital company and; Apple Computer, Microsoft, Lotus, Compaq, Sun Microsystems, Cisco; American genetic engineering company:1.6% of the sales of biopharmaceuticals in the United States-venture capitalist swanson; Facebook was founded by Zuckerberg in his sophomore year. In 2005, it received120,000 US dollars in venture capital, and its market value reached17.6 billion US dollars in 20 10. Well-known domestic companies, such as Little Sheep, Sohu, Baidu and Netease, all started their businesses through venture capital and went public.
Venture capital faces eight legal risks: the information asymmetry of venture capital subjects; Lack of market prospects for technological development; The legitimacy of intellectual property rights of venture enterprises; The venture capital agreement cannot be reached; Improper protection of trade secrets; False due diligence and errors in legal opinions; Friction in the performance of venture capital agreement; Venture capital circulation is not good, IPO is not good, equity transfer is not good, and liquidation is not good.