Oil prices are determined by supply and demand, and weak demand is one of the reasons behind the sharp drop in oil prices. According to the oil market reports released in June of 20 14 and 20 14, the international energy agency lowered the growth forecast of global crude oil demand in 20 14 to 700,000 barrels per day, up 0.8% year-on-year, the lowest level since the global financial crisis.

The slow growth of demand in China is the main reason for the weak growth of oil demand. China is the main driving force of global demand growth. In 2008-20 13, China accounted for 33% of the total demand growth and 53% of the net demand growth in the same period. In the past five years, China's GDP growth rate has gradually slowed down from 10.5% in 2065,438+00 to 7.7% in 2065,438+03, and in the third quarter of 2065,438+04, the GDP growth rate reached a new low of nearly six years.

In addition to China, the economic growth rates of other BRIC countries (Indian, Brazilian and Russian) and Saudi Arabia also have an important impact on the growth rate of crude oil demand. The economies of these countries are also not optimistic: India has been trying to get out of the shadow of the financial crisis in the past three years, with a growth rate hovering between 4.5% and 5%; On June 5438+065438+1 October1,the Brazilian central bank lowered the economic growth rate this year to 0.2%, the lowest in five years; Moody's downgraded Russia's sovereign credit rating to "Baa2", which is only one level away from "junk". It is estimated that the economic growth rate of Russia in 20 14 is only 0.5%.

Corresponding to the weak demand is the increasing oil supply year by year. In the United States, the increase in shale oil production has reduced the country's dependence on imports. According to the data of us energy information administration, from August of 20 1 1 year to June of 20 13, the total crude oil output of seven shale oil basins in the United States doubled to 4 million barrels per day. By 2065438+July 2004, the total crude oil output further increased to 4.7 million barrels per day, accounting for 55% of the US crude oil output. According to the data of the International Energy Agency, the United States will surpass Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest producer of liquid oil, which is the first time since 199 1.

Oil prices are closely related to the global macro-economy. Affected by weak demand and rising supply, oil prices will not rise sharply in the short term unless the economic growth rate rises sharply. However, due to the mining cost and the fiscal profit and loss lines of various countries, there is no downside for oil prices, but they will remain at around $80/barrel for a long time.