At the beginning, we still defined the house price, which refers to the real-time average house price of the city at that time, including the weighted average house price of the city and its counties, including the total average price of new houses and second-hand houses. Second, the next five years, that is, from 20 1 1 to 20 15, will be our forecast period. After 20 15, it may be mentioned by the way, but it is not our focus. Finally, during these five years, there will be several macro-control or economic fluctuations at home and abroad. For example, during this period, the minimum short-term impact on housing prices will be several interest rate hikes or interest rate cuts, which have little impact on the overall changes in housing prices. For example, whether the domestic property tax is implemented or not, or the economic situation in the United States and Europe fluctuates in a few years. It will not have much impact on the general direction of housing prices in China in five years. Therefore, our forecast here is based on the objective law of housing prices to predict their changes, rather than sticking to the housing prices of a certain city in a certain week or month.
After the housing price forecast of key cities in China is completed, the layout of housing prices in the country in the short term can be outlined. On this basis, let's go back to the head to analyze the reasons for the formation of housing prices in five years, because from now on, the main factors that determine housing prices in five years have been determined.
1, Shenyang
China, the capital of Liaoning, is a heavy industry base. After 20 years of reform and opening up, the economy began to catch up and made great progress. The average house price in June+10 in 2008 was 4 100 yuan, which rose rapidly to 5,500 yuan in mid-2008. Then the global financial crisis came, and the upward trend came to an abrupt end. At the beginning of 2009, it quickly dropped to 4,500 yuan, and at the end of 2009, it slowly rose from 500 yuan to an average price of 5,000 yuan. From 10 of 20 10 to the end of 20 10, it increased to 6500 yuan, and it increased by 30% in 20 10.
Predicting Shenyang's housing prices in the next five years needs to be based on historical data, national local development strategy and Shenyang's local fiscal revenue. On the basis of this analysis, we predict that the house price in Shenyang will exceed 8,000 yuan by the end of 438+065,438+0 in 2065 and 10000 yuan in 2065,438+02, and then increase by about 2,000 yuan every year, reaching1by the end of 2065,438+05.
2. Dalian.
It is an indisputable fact that the Pearl of Northeast China, a rising economic star in Ran Ran, has surpassed Shenyang, the provincial capital. The general situation of house prices is also 8000 yuan in early 2008, 9000 yuan in early 2009, 20 10, 20 10000, 20 1 1.
It is predicted that by the end of 20 1 13000, 20 12, 15, and 20 14, it will definitely exceed 20,000, and it will be close to 25,000 by the end of 20 15, which is "second to none" among all cities in Northeast China. By then, commercial real estate will rise, with many office buildings, high-grade communities and civilian communities, and the price of offshore real estate will reach 6.5438+million.
North China.
3. First of all, Beijing.
Political and cultural center, according to China's historical and humanistic habits, no matter who "our unit" is in power, it will never give up its position as the economic center of the capital, and all kinds of measures and resources are inclined to the capital intentionally or unintentionally. The local "our company" and developers earn mainly rich people all over the country, and the price increase will not be soft. Classifying Shanghai as an economic and financial center is just talk, and the combination of yin and yang is necessary.
Since the appearance of 1995 commercial housing, the housing price in Beijing has been the highest in China. In the eight years until 2003, the average house price was about 5,500 yuan, second only to Shenzhen. Since 2004, traditional economic powers such as Shanghai, Guangzhou and Hangzhou have been catching up and surpassing Beijing one after another. Then in July, 2007, Beijing surpassed Guangzhou and Hangzhou again, overtaking Shenzhen's house price, second only to Shanghai, reaching 1.3 million yuan/square. During the financial crisis in 2008, I wandered around 12000 for half a year. In 2009, it rose by 4000 yuan. In the first half of 2065, it was 438+00, and the average price in the previous year almost doubled, reaching a maximum of 24,500 yuan. From June 2065,438+00 to the end of 2065,438+00, it has been hovering between 22000 and 23000. It can be seen that the regulation effect on first-tier cities like Beijing is still good.
20 1 1, the average price in Beijing fluctuates around 23,000. In 20 12, there were almost no houses under 40,000 in the fourth ring road, and 30,000 houses in the fifth ring road disappeared. The average price in Beijing after the Spring Festival in 2065 is 25,000 yuan, 438+065,438+0. Since then, the average price has changed from 1 10,000 yuan to 20 15, breaking 50,000 yuan. There are 654.38+10,000 high-priced buildings everywhere in the Sixth Ring Road. The highest price of apartments is about 250,000 yuan/square meter, and the prices of all counties bordering Beijing have exceeded 20,000 yuan. The capital, the capital of goodness, can learn from the history since the Tang Dynasty. The capital is expensive, not to mention the house.
4. Tianjin.
Tianjinwei echoes the southeast Shanghai beach from a distance. After the reform and opening up, the economy was backward, and after 2000, it tried to catch up. However, the task entrusted to Tianjin by history is to be a vassal of Beijing, no matter whether Beijing is the capital or not, no matter how many unique policies Tianjin strives for. Generally speaking, Tianjin's housing price will not deviate from its position as a second-tier city, which is already higher than that of a third-tier city, but it will remain around the sixth floor of Beijing's price, so I won't go into details here.
5. Shijiazhuang.
Shijiazhuang is the economic center of Hebei, and the house price is also the weather vane of the whole province. Due to the special economic geography of Hebei, the housing price in Hebei will be high in the north and low in the south.
The average price of Shijiazhuang in 2009 was 4,700 yuan, and it broke 5,000 yuan in May 2065, 438+00. At the end of the year, it exceeded 6,000 yuan, with an annual increase of 28%. After that, it was 1000 every year, and it was not until 210/5 that it broke through 10000, which was considered as a relatively low price among provincial capitals. Shijiazhuang is the capital city, and its name will not change for a hundred years. Of course, the housing price in Hebei province has nothing to do with the name, but mainly with the proximity to the metropolis. The highest price in the province will appear in the county bordering Beijing, followed by Langfang Tangshan Qinhuangdao generation. The price of 20 1 1 is around 6000 to 7000, and 20 13 is over 10,000, which is earlier than the provincial capital. Baoding, Cangzhou, Hengshui in the south, near Shijiazhuang, Baoding has the highest house price, which will reach more than 5000,438+02 in 2065. The rest, together with Xingtai and Handan in the south, can find properties below 5,000 before 2065,438+05. In the last two years, the unit price of top-level properties was around 1.2 million, mainly for local rich people and home buyers, so there is basically no bubble in local housing prices.
6. Taiyuan.
Taiyuan is located in the center of the coal boss's hometown. Loess and coal mining lead to the short life of houses built in the province, and rich people invest their money to buy luxury houses in other places, so house prices will not rise too fast, which is basically equal to the actual annual price increase 10%, with the peak value of 6600 yuan in 2065, 438+0 1 and the expected 9500 yuan in 20 15 years.
7. Jinan.
Shandong is the capital of Shandong and the base of heavy industry such as steel. Shandong's strategy for the whole province is different from that of other provinces. Shandong is a province with a very clear concept of hierarchy, which is related to the conservative thought of Confucius' hometown. Therefore, Shandong province's control over sister cities will far exceed that of other provinces, with a strong planned economy atmosphere, and the wind of reform and opening up belongs to the most backward echelon along the coast. The whole development concept is to protect the provincial capital, open the coast and abandon the southwest.
Housing prices in Jinan are not low. 6,000 yuan in August 2009, 8,000 yuan in June 20 10, and 8,000 yuan in August 201year 10. After the Spring Festival, it will reach 8500 yuan, breaking through 1 10,000 at the end of 20 12, and is expected to 15.
Other coastal cities belong to the second echelon. 20 1 1 ends, and the price is between 5500 and 7000. Since then, the growth rate has been lower than Jinan and Yantai is slightly higher than Weihai, but Weihai will rise in the future. Due to the neglect of big cities in southwest Shandong, the number of migrant workers will increase again in the next five years. Zaozhuang and Heze are typical economically backward areas. The annual average price will hover around 3,500 from 2065,438+02 to 2065,438+03, and will not exceed 5,000 before 2065,438+05.
8. Qingdao.
Qingdao is the image city of Shandong. Qingdao learned from Dalian in the 1990s, and Dalian learned from Qingdao in the new century. Qingdao is the most powerful city in Shandong Province, and its export-oriented economy to South Korea and Japan is always stronger than Dalian, and house prices are no exception. The house price in Qingdao reached 8,000 yuan in 2007, still 9,000 yuan in the financial crisis in 2008, and exceeded 10,000 yuan at the end of 2009, 65,438 yuan in the summer of 2065, 65,438+0,2065,438+0 and 65,438 yuan at the beginning of 2065,438+0, and it is expected to continue to soar in the next two years. Due to the large number of state-owned enterprises in Qingdao, the planned economy thinking is strong, and the strategy of attaching importance to planning, fame and fortune and light industrial workers and ignoring wages will not change. Second-tier Qingdao has always maintained the income of third-tier cities, so Qingdao has become the city with the highest ratio of house price to income in Chinese mainland.
9. Zhengzhou.
Henan provincial capital. The overall economic strength of Henan is weaker than that of Hebei, but Zhengzhou is stronger than Shijiazhuang. On April 20 10, the house price in Zhengzhou was more than 6,000 yuan, and it is no problem to rise to 7,000 yuan at the end of the year. Top-level real estate rose to 20,000 yuan, and the average price broke through 1 10,000 yuan at some time from 20 14 to 20 15, thus joining the ranks of cities with 10,000 yuan. Prices in other cities in the province are not high. Taking Luoyang as a reference, the housing price is equivalent to the second city, with 20 1 1-20 13 hovering around 5,000, and 20 15 not exceeding 8,000. In other cities, the average price of new buildings in 20 1 1 is 3000, and those below 5000 will be common in the next few years, which belongs to the central price depression. With the exception of Luoyang and Zhengzhou, house prices have not inflated. Of course, it also depends on the income generation process of "our company" in various parts of Henan Province. Henan province is vigorously attracting investment along the coast, and the game of speculation will be staged soon. We will wait and see.
10, Shanghai.
Megacities in East China, weathervanes of first-tier cities, and nominal financial and trade centers of the country. At the beginning of 2004, the house price surpassed Beijing, and at the end of 2004, the average price surpassed Shenzhen, ranking first in the country at that time. After two adjustments, it reached the previous peak of 1.8 million yuan in June 2007, and the lowest value of 1.48 million yuan during the financial crisis, which lasted only two weeks, and broke through 1.8 million yuan again in mid-August 2009. At the end of 2009, the average price 19200, 20 10 peaked at 24200 yuan. After that, I wandered around 23,000 yuan for three months, and the average price in the first week of 201/kloc-0 was 22,800 yuan.
Based on the following two useless premises: 1) The "purchase restriction order" of Shanghai 20 10 is aimed at all Chinese mainland residents who can only buy another property in Shanghai after 2010; 2) Shanghai property tax will be introduced at the beginning of 20 1 1, only for new houses, and the tax rate will not exceed 1%. We can judge that once the central bank does not raise interest rates again in the first quarter of 20 1 1, Shanghai real estate prices will explode, exceeding 20 1. So whether the interest rate is raised or not, it will definitely exceed 30,000 in 2065,438+02, and the peak value will exceed 40,000 and approach 50,000 before the end of 2065,438+05, which is slightly lower than the capital Beijing and still the second highest house price in China. Although second-and third-tier cities have been wildly hyped by a lot of money in five years, house prices are still full of expectations for Beijing and Shanghai. During this period, Shanghai Diwang and the new top-level real estate will appear near the China Pavilion, while the sky-high real estate with a floor price of over 6,543,800+and a pre-sale price of over 200,000 will soon appear on the land where foreign pavilions are demolished in the World Expo Park. In the outer suburbs, especially Sheshan, the only highland in Shanghai, the unit price of villas is 20 15 above 300,000 /m2. 70% of the country is mountainous, but there are no mountains in Shanghai. As long as it is a mound, it is a mountain. People in mountainous areas all over the country, whose lifetime income does not exceed 300,000, don't know how they feel when they see a house of 30. 1 10,000 square meters on the "mountain" in Shanghai.
1 1, Chongqing.
In the municipality directly under the central government, the housing price has been lower than that of the brother city Chengdu, a municipality directly under the central government with a population of 35 million, and cracking down on illegal publications has aroused heated discussion. The average price in 2008 was 3,500 yuan, the average price in 2009 was 4,700 yuan, the average price in 2065,438+00 was 6,200 yuan, and the real-time price at the beginning of 2065,438+065,438+0 was 6,700 yuan/square.
It is estimated that by the end of 20 1 1, it will be around 7800, less than 8000. With the introduction of high-end real estate tax, the average price will linger for some time and rise slowly. 20 102, the average price will be 9 100. At this time, the sales of non-high-end ordinary houses other than the retention tax will be extremely hot, which will lead to the high price of ordinary commercial houses.
12, Chengdu.
The land of abundance, with beautiful scenery, outstanding people and vast hinterland, is the economic leader of Sichuan Basin. In 2007, the average price of real estate once broke 8000, fell to 5800 at the peak of the financial crisis at the end of 2008, and recovered to 8000,438+0 at the beginning of 2065. After that, the two macro-control prices stopped rising too fast, and the real-time average price in early 2065 was about 8500 yuan, 438+0.
The peak of 20 1 1 will be around 9000, 20 13 will exceed 10,000, 20 14 will be surpassed by the price in Chongqing, and the average price of 20 15 will be 13- 14.
Xi 'an 13.
The starting point of house prices is not high, and the development is extremely rapid. In 2007, the average price was 3,500 yuan, and in 2008, the average price was 4,200 yuan. At the end of 2009, it exceeded 4,800 yuan, with a net increase of 20 1.500 yuan, reaching 6,300 yuan, with an annual increase of 32%, ranking first among western cities. But the economy is neither thick nor thin, and the economic foundation is insufficient.
It is predicted that the average price at the end of 20 1 1 will approach 7,000, and then the speed will slow down to nearly 10,000, and 20 15 is lower than 13, which is lower than that of Chengdu and Chongqing.
14, Wuhan.
Wuhan, known as the center of China, is the most suitable capital, but it has not been reached for decades. Three towns in Wuhan can only be described in big characters. Located in the geographical center, the local customs in the southeast and northwest account for a little bit, with simple folk customs, straightforward speech, half of light and heavy industries in the economy, disorderly urban planning pattern, high-rise buildings and hills adjacent to urban villages. A huge Wuhan is also the most "hodgepodge" city, urban village and urban village in China. This special situation naturally makes Wu Hanyou special, and the layout between towns is characterized by large places, easy land sale and sufficient land. Therefore, there are not many land kings in Wuhan, and the floor price is not high. However, our company earns a lot from land sales every year, accounting for more than 70% of local fiscal revenue in recent years.
The house price in Wuhan has been tepid. It broke through 5,000 in the second half of 2007, broke through 5,000 again in early 2009, and began to rise vigorously at 5,500 at the end of 2009, and paid 7,000 per square meter at the end of 2065,438+00. The unit price ranks second only to Chengdu in the central and western cities.
It is predicted that house prices in Wuhan will rise step by step. Because the land supply is relatively sufficient, the rhythm is relatively stable. At the beginning of 20 12, it reached the milestone of 8500, and 20 13 broke through 10000, and fluctuated around 12000 in the following years. The 10,000-yuan step in Wuhan will be a milestone for the whole country, which means that more than half of the national 100 key monitoring cities have entered the 10,000-yuan house price, including all coastal cities, top 100 counties and key cities in the central and western regions, which means that the 10,000-yuan house price in China really came at that time.
15, Changsha.
Changsha is an exceptional provincial capital city. Among all the provincial capital cities, Changsha will always maintain a low property price. From the price of around 3,500 in 2007 to 4,500 at the end of 2009, it was consolidated around 5,000 for one year, and it didn't take off until the first two weeks of 2065,438+065,438+0, and the average price exceeded 5,600. Considering comprehensively that the local "our company" in Changsha mainly focuses on the tertiary industry, including industry, agriculture and real estate, under the vigorous cultivation of the local "our company", the land supply and building supply are sufficient, the property market is balanced, the development is healthy, and home ownership is realized. Therefore, in the property market feast until 20 15, Changsha is the only provincial capital city with a capital of less than 10,000 yuan, which is a model for benefiting the people. Other cities in Hunan Province refer to Changsha, where housing prices are rational and the real economy will be extremely active, so the economic strength of Hunan Province will advance by leaps and bounds in the next few years.
Nanjing 16.
The capital of Jiangsu Province ranks third in economic strength and fourth in per capita income among 13 cities in the province. Located at the junction of Jiangsu and Anhui, it is the distribution center of talents and materials in the Yangtze River Delta.
As early as 1999, Nanjing became the first place in China to put forward the concept of "operating a city", that is, to operate a city as an enterprise. Running a business pursues the rapid development of turnover and excess or higher profits, and the main way for local "our company" to participate in sales is to sell land. Therefore, Nanjing is the originator of China's selling land at a high price. As early as 200 1, Nanjing's housing prices ranked fourth in the country, second only to Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai. And in 2002, relying on the rapid and extensive economic development mode of real estate, Nanjing's economic aggregate also surpassed Jiangsu Xiaohu Changzhou to become the third in the province. To sum up the history of housing prices in Nanjing, it broke through 8500 in 2007 and lasted for nearly three years until the beginning of 2065, when it was 438+00. Nanjing's housing prices have been consolidating at a high level of 9000, which has been surpassed by other provincial capitals and sub-provincial cities that learn to operate cities. In the whole year of 2065,438+00, Nanjing's house price once again gave strength, jumping from 9000 to 14000. Other cities in the province have followed suit, with Xuzhou, Yangzhou, Nantong, Taizhou and other cities with relatively weak industrial base but "development" as the core being the most prosperous. 20 10 housing prices in these cities have risen sharply, and the construction of residential areas in various cities has blossomed in an all-round way. In order to make the economy grow explosively, we can only use real estate to fill the relative shortage of industry and service industry. 20 10, Yangzhou has the highest increase, with an increase of more than 65438+. Nantong's unit price is high, not only close to 10,000 yuan, but also the floor price of land cases taken in 2065,438+00 is everywhere, and it will take 20,000 yuan to make money two years later. Although house prices are generally on the rise, we predict that Nantong and Xuzhou will be cities where house prices are likely to drop slightly from 20 1 1 to 20 13, and will remain unchanged for at least 2-3 years.
Returning to Nanjing, the provincial capital, and focusing on Nanjing's economic base and people's livelihood in the next few years, it is really difficult to support such a high housing price. Nanjing's housing price-income ratio is also second only to Qingdao in the country. We predict that the house price in Nanjing will not exceed 1 10000 by the end of 20 12 to 20 14, and will eventually exceed 20,000 at 20 15, and then the ranking will fall back to the whole country/kloc.
17, Suzhou.
Jiangsu province has the strongest economy, with a population of 8.2 million and the fifth largest economic aggregate in China. In the foreseeable future 10, its economic aggregate and wealth will surpass Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Beijing, ranking second in the country. Private capital, state-owned assets and foreign capital are divided into three parts. In the future, the core representative of "Made in China" and the paradise of migrant workers in China, the non-registered population will exceed1100000 in 2065438.
Suzhou's housing prices have not been high, and there are not many speculative funds entering the industry, especially the proportion of industrial funds is high. The old city is restricted from building high-rise buildings, and the high proportion of housing accumulation fund in the park will gradually end in 20 1 1, and the development of the new district will be improved day by day. Taicang, Changshu, Changshu, Wujiang, Zhangjiagang and Taicang under its jurisdiction are among the top 100 counties in China, integrating urban and rural areas. To sum up the history of Suzhou's housing price, it was close to 8,000 yuan in 2007 and exceeded 8,500 yuan in June 2009, 10, 12 months, and has been hovering between 9,500-10000 yuan, 201.
In fact, the housing price in Suzhou has always been lower than its economic level, which is related to the whereabouts of local funds and the excessive strength of county-level cities under the jurisdiction of two major parks and five major cities. We predict that the house prices in all five counties under the jurisdiction of 20 12 will exceed 10,000 yuan, and the overall house prices in Suzhou will exceed12 12000, approaching15,000 yuan, and 20 13 will exceed the average price of Nanjing, the provincial capital. This forecast not only considers the strong economic development of Suzhou in the future, but also considers the distance between high-speed rail and other transportation facilities and first-tier cities, and also considers the demand of 6.5438 million migrant workers to settle in Suzhou.
18, Wuxi.
Suzhou and Wuxi used to be the collective name of the three tigers in southern Jiangsu, and their wealth and economic aggregate have always accounted for more than half of all 13 cities in the province, showing their economic advantages. Wuxi, commonly known as "little shanghai", surpassed Suzhou in per capita income in 2007, ranking second in the province.
House prices are generally moderate, with an average price of a little over 6,000 in 2009 and 7,500,438+00 at the end of 2065. The total economic output has been higher than that of Nanjing, Hangzhou and Ningbo, ranking third in the Yangtze River Delta. House prices rank 6-7 in the whole province, and the wind of real estate speculation is far less than that of other cities in Jiangsu, Jiangsu, northern Jiangsu and other provinces. When it comes to low housing prices, Wuxi, a developed city along the northern and southern coasts of China, and Changzhou next to it have become downright low, which is mainly related to the early development of local people's livelihood housing. The article about Changzhou has already been mentioned, so I won't repeat it here. In the next five years, the average price of Wuxi will gradually develop under the impetus of Jiangyin, a subordinate county, and the construction of the new district. 20 1 1, 8200 online, above 2012,9000, until 20 15000 yuan, lower than Nanjing.
Hangzhou 19.
As the capital of Zhejiang Province and the economic core of northern Zhejiang Province, China's private economy, the house price has been high, reaching as high as 14000 yuan in 2007, falling to 1 1500 during the financial crisis and ending at17000,2010 in 2009.
Hangzhou enjoys various preferential policies and economic benefits unique to the whole province. More than half of Hangzhou's private capital is restructured from local collective enterprises, which is closely related to the historical origin of Shanghai, and has the ability to promote it to the whole country independently, and occupies the unique tourism resources of West Lake. However, Wen Tai capital in this province is generally not associated with it. It directly invests in Shanghai or overseas, and generally does not invest in Hangzhou unless some home buyers are employed. However, Hangzhou itself is rich in private funds, and real estate investment has been high. As early as 1998, the slogan "Live in Hangzhou" was put forward to attract private rich people to settle by the West Lake. Therefore, the house price once surpassed Shanghai, and it was the only one in the Yangtze River Delta. 20 1 1 At the beginning of the year, it still surpassed neighboring cities such as Nanjing, Ningbo and Suzhou at a high price of 2 1000 yuan.
It is predicted that the house price in Hangzhou will definitely exceed 22,000 in 2065,438+0, close to 25,000 in 2065,438+02, 30,000 in 2065,438+03 and 40,000 in 2065,438+05, which is close to Shanghai.
20, Ningbo.
Ningbo's economy is self-contained, and the port economy that manufactures small household appliances and chemical machinery has developed rapidly. The strength and ambition of its private capital can be seen from the self-raised funds to build a cross-sea bridge directly to Shanghai. Ningbo is the third faction of Zhejiang economy. Different from Wen Tai and northern Zhejiang, Ningbo's economy is mainly transformed by local export enterprises and Shaoxing investors, and it is also famous for its blood relationship with Shanghai.
The housing price in Ningbo started from the transformation of Youngor a few years ago, and the real estate entered an accelerated development period. High-end real estate, commercial and residential buildings, suburban communities, township industrial parks, villas and holiday scenic spots are scattered, with strong industrial support. The house price of 7000 yuan in 2008 gave Ningbo a rapid advantage as a latecomer. It broke through the 10,000 yuan mark in June 2009, 65,438+5,000,438+00,000 in May 2065, and still ended with 65,438+5,000 in early 2065, 438+0165,438.
Based on the location development and overall real estate layout planning of Ningbo, we predict that Ningbo will break through the average price of 1.006 in 2065, 438+0.005 in 2002, and reach about 25,000 in 2065, keeping pace with Suzhou in the Yangtze River Delta, second only to Shanghai and Hangzhou, and higher than Nanjing.
2 1, Wenzhou.
In the hometown of real estate speculators, the average price remained at10.5 million in 2007-2008 and exceeded10.9 million in 2009. At the end of 2009, Wenzhou private capital partially withdrew from home investment. In just three months in the first quarter of 2065,438+0.00, the house price in Wenzhou rose from 1.9 million to 25 million, an increase of 366.
Since ancient times, funds will not forget their roots like people. In the case that the house in their hometown is noisy to nearly 30 thousand, Wenzhou private capital should be able to take a break. We expect that the price of 20 1 1 Wenzhou will exceed 30,000, and there is no doubt that a large amount of funds will still go out or stay outside for investment. By 20 15, Wenzhou's housing prices naturally appreciated, and part of the investment was less than 40 thousand on average, which was equivalent to Shanghai's housing prices at that time. However, the local people in Wenzhou have a hard life, and most of them are not "bosses". The floor prices of all local county-level cities are above 20,000, which is a bit scary.
22. Fuzhou.
Fujian is famous for Fuzhou and blessed for Fuzhou. House prices in Fuzhou, the provincial capital, are very high in the province, slightly lower than Xiamen and much higher than Quanzhou.
It occupies the title of a developed coastal province, and its economic strength is weaker than its southern neighbors, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong, but its housing prices are not far behind. In 2008, the average house price in Fuzhou was 7,500 yuan, and it ended at 9,000 yuan in 2009. After two adjustments, it still rose by 1.500 yuan, and the average price approached 1.000 yuan.
It is estimated that the house price in Fuzhou will gradually increase, approaching 1 1800, 20 1003 at the end of 20 1000, and then continue, and finally 20 15 hovers at 20,000 stalls, still lower than Xiamen.
23. Xiamen
The benchmark of Fujian's economy, housing prices are also obligatory.
Xiamen has a unique geographical advantage. In 2009, the house price stood at the mark of 65438+ 1 10,000 1 for the first time, and then it fluctuated greatly during the two most severe real estate regulation in 20 10. The local second-home standard strictly implements the instructions of "our company", the loan procedures are extremely complicated, the purchase restriction order is strictly enforced, and the surrounding investors are discouraged, resulting in a strange phenomenon that you can find a house when the house price is high, but the house price is not high and the total price is high. At the end of 20 10, we just need to make another effort to push the house price to the historical high of 13000.
It is predicted that the house price in Xiamen will approach114000 at a certain time point, and the price of new top-level real estate will reach 50,000, and the average price will exceed 15000 in 20 13 years to 20 12 years.
24, Shenzhen.
The cradle of reform and opening up, the new era, the symbol of China's knowledge economy. As early as before 2003, it has been the first vanguard of housing prices and per capita income in China. There is a wave of migration and employment in Shenzhen every five years, and the house price reached its first peak in June 2007 1.003. During the financial crisis, the house price dropped to 9,000 yuan, and soared again in the spring of 2009, reaching 1.005 at the end of March of the following year, surpassing the previous high point. 20 10 reached the peak value of 19300 on April 30th, then fell back to the lowest value of 17000 in mid-May of 20 10, and then crawled all the way, rising 1000 every two months until 20/kloc.
It is predicted that the house price in Shenzhen will fluctuate between 20,000 and 22,000 in 2065,438+0, and the barrier outside the customs may be completely broken in 2065,438+02, and a large number of houses outside the customs will enter the market, but the average price will still rise, approaching 25,000, and will exceed 30,000 at some time from 2065,438+03 to 2065,402.
25, Guangzhou.
South China, an important industrial town and the third largest first-tier city in China, has a huge layout momentum, and its economic aggregate is likely to surpass Beijing and almost equal Shanghai.
Guangzhou's housing price is not high, and it has been lower than Shenzhen. After the peak reached 8500 in 2007, it didn't break through the previous peak until 2009 10. March of 20 1 1500, and the second peak is July of 20 10, and the unit price is 10.
According to Guangzhou's forecast, we can reach 65,438+02,65,438+08,2065,438+03-2065,438+04 in 2065, and the era of 20,000 yuan is coming, 2065,438+04. During this period, due to the emergence of the concept of Guangzhou Greater Guangzhou, the scale of the urban area has expanded rapidly, and new development communities in the suburbs have sprung up like mushrooms after rain, and a large number of new sites have entered the market, resulting in a slow rise in house prices, which is more reasonable in all big cities.
26, Sanya.
The concept of international tourist island made the house price in Sanya soar at the end of 2009 and the beginning of 20 10. This is also the birthplace of China's last real estate bubble. Compared with other places, the housing prices in Sanya are different. It is not supported by its own funds at all, nor is it based on local "our company" hype. Almost overnight, it was realized by the influx of speculative funds from other provinces and cities. The backward economic situation and hinterland make high housing prices completely unreliable. The country is not for hype, but it is suspected that Hainan will attract a lot of liquidity and lock in funds on the island.
The real estate price in Sanya has reached 20,000 in less than 5,100 months, fluctuating greatly between 1.005 and 20 10. Once the country does not set up a restraint mechanism and the situation does not evacuate a large amount of funds, Sanya will become an experimental stone for the second time.
Therefore, it is difficult to judge the trend of housing prices in Sanya in the next five years. We predict that its house price will continue to fluctuate greatly between1.7,000 and 30,000.