Let me briefly talk about the euro. It was launched in 1999 65438+ 10, when the exchange rate was 1 Euro 1. 174 USD.
Anything new will be questioned, and the euro is no exception. Amid doubts, the exchange rate continued to fall. On October 26th, 2000/kloc-0, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar fell 1:0.823, which was a bit large.
With the stability of the situation, the exchange rate of the euro began to rise.
On June 2002, 65438+1 October1,the euro officially circulated, and the exchange rate has been rising. By February 2003, 1 Euro could be exchanged for 1.2286 USD, with an appreciation rate of 40%.
Except for a year's trial operation, the exchange rate between the euro and the dollar has been relatively strong.
In fact, as we all know, occupying the euro is a challenge to the dollar. It turns out that the success of the challenge is 20 years more expensive than the dollar.
But this time, the confidence of the euro may be frustrated, and 1: 1 will be called a watershed.
This may aggravate the recession of the EU economy. According to statistics, according to the economic scale of the European Union, the depreciation of the euro will reduce the economic scale by more than 2 trillion US dollars compared with the previous year.
In addition to the decline in economic scale, the flattening of exchange rate and the depreciation of the euro, the cost of importing goods from other countries by countries using the euro will increase, and the price level may rise. However, the EU countries themselves have serious inflation problems, which simply kills the EU.
Followed by the anti-inflation policy, monetary tightening policy is about to come up. But once the money is tightened, consumption and investment will have an impact, which is still unfavorable to the economy.
We all know that the original intention of the euro is to compete with the dollar and replace it, but I'm afraid we'll lose the opportunity this time.
Among the international currencies, the euro is second only to the US dollar, occupying an important position in the international payment market share, and it is the currency most likely to break the monopoly position of the US dollar. But this time, the euro and the dollar have returned to parity, and it is more difficult for the euro to replace the dollar.
I think the intermittent conflict between Russia and Ukraine may directly affect the exchange rate of the euro. Europe's energy supply is facing interruption, the intention of economic recession is obvious, the overall economic situation is not optimistic, and the depreciation of the local currency has followed. In addition, the Fed's interest rate hike has increased the yield of US bonds and increased the attractiveness of the US dollar.
In fact, the determination and courage of the European Union are commendable. Although it has the same roots as the United States, it has different paths and has a heart. As the saying goes, sworn enemies. The development of the European Union is conducive to the diversification of the world, but the United States does not think this is a good thing.
This time, however, there is a regret. The euro is plagued by internal organizational defects and may be difficult to turn over in the future.
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