A school that uses statistical methods to analyze historical facts and conduct historical research. It rose in the United States in the mid-1960s. With the wide application of electronic computers, an internationally popular school of historiography has been formed.
Metrological historians usually classify data into statistical series by various methods according to the research object. For example, the number and annual income of social strata in a certain region in a certain period, and the seats occupied by various parties in parliament. Then these series are described, compared and analyzed, and expressed by proportion, percentage, chart or curve, so as to grasp the changes of historical facts in a fixed and quantitative way.
Statistical concepts commonly used by econometric historians mainly include concentration trend, deviation trend and skewness. These concepts can represent the shape and characteristics of a statistical sequence. By calculating the arithmetic mean and median of the series, the concentration trend of the series can be obtained; Through the calculation of standard deviation, the deviation trend of sequence can be deduced; The simplest method of skew distribution is to compare the median and average of series. If the average is greater than the median, it is positively skewed; On the other hand, it is negatively inclined. For example, when econometric historians study the economic income of all classes in a certain area, they can first calculate the per capita income of all classes in the area (that is, the average) and the income of the middle class between extreme wealth and extreme poverty (that is, the median), and get the concentration trend of economic income of all classes in the area; Then, by calculating the standard deviation, the difference between personal income and per capita income is deduced, that is, the trend of deviation from the middle; Finally, compare the median and the average, and draw the conclusion whether the economic income in this area is skewed or not.
In addition, econometric historians also introduced the concept of "variable" in statistics when studying two related series. For example, when studying the relationship between the number of high school graduates and the number of skilled workers in a certain period, the percentage of high school graduates is the independent variable and the percentage of skilled workers is the dependent variable. The latter changed because of the change of the former. Historians can further reveal the internal relationship between historical facts by analyzing one or several pairs of variables.
The emergence of econometric historiography is a progress of science history and a new trend of current historical research. Some historians in the United States, France, the Soviet Union and other countries have written some masterpieces of econometrics. However, it is difficult for econometrics to get rid of the subjective opinions of historians in sampling, classification and analysis, which affects the credibility of its conclusions and even leads to various fallacies. The key to the development and future of econometrics lies in what viewpoint historians view human history and what position they choose to use.