First, the production of aniline in China is increasing year by year, which can basically meet the domestic demand (analyze the real purpose of mainstream funds to find the best profit opportunities! )
At present, there are more than 20 manufacturers with an annual production capacity of more than 200,000 tons. The main manufacturers are Dye Factory of Jihua Company, Qingyang Chemical Company of Liaoning Province, Suzhou 9395 Factory, Nanjing Chemical Plant, Lanhua Company, Nanhua Company, Chongqing Changfeng Chemical Plant, Qingdao Jiaonan Chemical Fertilizer Plant, Yantai Synthetic Leather Factory of Henan Kaipu Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. The yield of 1999 is 142700 t, which is 2 1.4% higher than that of 1998. It is estimated that this year's output will be around1.4000 t, and the social demand will be around1.4000 t, so the production and demand are basically balanced.
After the reform and opening up, China's economy has continued to grow at a high speed, and the demand for aniline in various related industries has been increasing. The market is in short supply and the economic benefit is good. Therefore, a number of aniline production devices have been added in various places, and the production capacity has been greatly increased. Most newly-built units adopt nitrobenzene hydrogenation production mode, and each production of 1t aniline consumes more than 600 m3 of hydrogen. Due to the lack of hydrogen, many manufacturers can't produce at full capacity. In addition, some equipment is old and aging, which affects the production capacity. Even so, in recent years, the output of aniline is increasing year by year, and the growth rate is relatively large.
Due to the sharp increase in the sales price of aniline and the improvement of the production enthusiasm of enterprises, it is expected that the output will increase this year. From/kloc-0 to March this year, it has produced 29,600 tons, up by 1 2% year-on-year. China has a relatively large aniline production capacity. If the demand increases greatly, it can be solved by increasing production reliably.
Second, the demand for aniline will not increase significantly in the second half of the year.
In recent years, the consumption structure of aniline in China has undergone great changes, mainly in the dye industry. The consumption of aniline is above 40% in many cases and below 20% in rare cases, so the production of dyes directly affects the aniline market. The composition of aniline consumption is roughly as follows: dyes and organic pigments account for about 17% ~ 40% of the total aniline consumption, rubber additives, pesticides, drugs and polyurethane account for 50% ~ 60%, and others account for 10% ~ 20%.
Dye industry is a big consumer of aniline, which is mainly used in more than 70 varieties such AS acid dyes, basic dyes, cationic dyes, direct dyes, disperse dyes, reactive dyes, chromophores as and so on. In recent years, the dye market has been oversupply, with limited exports and a lot of imports. In addition, in order to protect the environment, the state ordered the closure of small dye factories and small printing and dyeing factories. The output of dyes has not increased significantly. Rubber additives are another big user of aniline, which are mainly used in the production of 10 varieties, such as accelerator group, antioxidant A, antioxidant D, etc. In recent years, the sales of rubber products such as tires, three belts and one tube and rubber shoes are not smooth, and the economic benefits are declining. Some enterprises are at a loss, the sales of rubber additives are flat, and the output growth is not much. Other products that consume aniline, such as hydroquinone, diphenylamine, cyclohexylamine, dimethylaniline, 1, 3,5-pyrazolone, pesticides, organic pigments, etc. Most of them are oversupply. Due to the above situation, the sales of aniline in dyes are not strong at present.
As the country has adopted the policy of expanding domestic demand and proactive fiscal policy, the domestic market has gradually improved. In the first half of this year, the growth rate of industrial production was accelerated, the production and sales rate was further improved, economic benefits were improved, and product prices rose. In May, the output of dyes increased by 18.9%, and the output of rubber additives increased by 22. 1%, which is equivalent to increasing the dosage of aniline. In addition, aniline is the raw material of MDI and TDI for polyurethane plastics. In recent years, China's polyurethane industry has developed rapidly and its application scope is expanding day by day. However, the output of MDI and TDI is insufficient and needs to be solved by importing. In order to meet the domestic demand, a number of MDI and TDI production devices have been built recently, which will increase the consumption of aniline, but many of these devices are equipped with aniline production devices, and the output of aniline will also increase. At present, the China market has not fundamentally improved, and the downstream products of aniline are not well sold. Although the demand has increased in the second half of the year, the estimated amount will not be too large.
Third, the change of crude oil price in the international market will cause the fluctuation of aniline price.
The price increase of aniline since last year is not entirely due to the sharp increase in demand, but has a lot to do with the rise in oil prices in the international market. In the second half of last year, the price of crude oil in the international market rose sharply, and the price of pure benzene, the main raw material of aniline, also rose, driving the price of aniline to climb. In the first half of this year, oil prices fluctuated frequently in the international market, reaching a record high of $39.5 per barrel. Due to Saudi Arabia's decision to increase crude oil production, oil prices have started to fall again recently, but will remain above $25/barrel. China's crude oil price has been basically in line with the international market, and will change with the changes in the international market. Therefore, the price of aniline will be relatively stable in the later period, and the fluctuation range will not be too large.
Fourth, the import of aniline decreased, and the impact on the domestic market weakened.
For a long time, China's aniline production is insufficient and needs to be imported to make up for it. In some years, a small amount of aniline is exported. Generally speaking, imports exceed exports. In recent years, with the continuous increase of aniline production in China, the import volume shows a downward trend. See table 1 for aniline imports in recent years. There were also some exports during this period, ranging from 65,438+10,000 tons to several hundred tons. Therefore, it has little impact on the domestic market, and it is expected that imports will decrease this year.
To sum up, the aniline market will be stable in the second half of the year, and the price will not fluctuate greatly.
Table 1 China aniline imports in recent years, ten thousand tons.
Annual import volume
1992 2.35
1993 1.32
1994 1. 19
1995 1. 16
1996 0.65
1997 0.55
1998 0.48
1999 0.65