Judging from the operation of nonferrous metals industry in China, the operating income of nonferrous metals mining and dressing industry increased by -4.6% and -3. 1% respectively in 20 19 and the first three quarters of 2020, and the total profit increased by -28.8% and 5.9% respectively. The operating income of nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 7.2% and 65,438+0.5% respectively, and the total profit increased by 65,438+0.2% and 2.65,438+0% respectively.
Although the non-ferrous metals industry was under great pressure in the first quarter due to the epidemic, with the rapid resumption of work and production, various indicators rebounded rapidly. In the first three quarters of 2020, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value of nonferrous mining and dressing industry in China was -0.4%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value of nonferrous smelting and processing industry was 1.9%. It is expected that the recovery will accelerate in the fourth quarter and 20,265,438+0.
The growth rate of operating income of non-ferrous metal listed companies in 2020Q3 is 12.2%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than that in 2020Q2. The growth rate of operating profit in 2020Q3 is-1.6%, which is 22. 1 percentage point lower than that in 2020Q2.
The growth rate of operating income of precious metal listed companies in 2020Q3 is 12.7%, which is 2.3 percentage points lower than that in 2020Q2. The growth rate of operating profit in 2020Q3 is 5 1.7%, which is 13.6 percentage points higher than that in 2020Q2.
The growth rate of operating income of industrial metal listed companies in 2020Q3 was 8.6%, 2.4 percentage points higher than that in 2020Q2. The growth rate of operating profit in 2020Q3 is -2 1.9%, which is 19 percentage points lower than that in 2020Q2.
The growth rate of operating income of rare metal listed companies in 2020Q3 was 26.8%, which was 3.4 percentage points lower than that in 2020Q2. The growth rate of operating profit in 2020Q3 was -0.3%, which was 36.8 percentage points lower than that in 2020Q2.
1.2. The price of precious metals is mixed, and the price of industrial metals is V-shaped.
For precious metals, the international gold price rose by 23.5% before 2020 10 month. Due to the global epidemic and the weakening of the dollar, the price of gold once exceeded $2,000 per ounce. Since August 2020, the US dollar index has shown a bottom consolidation trend, and precious metal prices have shown a certain correction, which is in a high consolidation state.
In terms of industrial metals, the price of industrial metals showed a V-shaped reversal trend throughout the year. With the acceleration of resumption of work and production, the prices of most industrial metals have been higher than last year. From the average price, the average price of copper, aluminum and nickel before 10 month has been higher than last year, while the performance of lead, zinc and tin is relatively weak.
In terms of small metals, the weak downstream demand led to the fall of molybdenum price from a high level and a big adjustment; The price of tungsten is still at the bottom. The price range of cobalt fluctuated throughout the year, and the prices of lithium and sponge titanium dropped significantly.
In terms of rare earths, the price of light rare earths has dropped significantly compared with the end of last year, and the price of medium and heavy rare earths has increased significantly compared with last year. The supply of light rare earth recovered quickly, and the price was relatively weak in the case of weak demand; The price of medium and heavy rare earths is subject to supply, and the price is firm.
1.3. performance of non-ferrous plate in the first half of the year: basically in step with the market.
Before 2020 10 month, the non-ferrous sector rose by 4.54%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 5.72%, and the non-ferrous sector was basically in sync with the broader market index; 29 industries, the fluctuation range is 17, and the industry comparison performance is in the middle; Among the non-ferrous sub-industries, only precious metals and lithium plates have a large increase, and lead and zinc have the worst performance.
2. 1. Successful vaccines and controlled epidemics promote recovery.
The suppression of the epidemic on the economy is about to pass. Although the second wave of European and American epidemics occurred in the current period, some countries took measures to ban it again, but the medical capacity and coping level were significantly improved, and the impact on the economy gradually weakened. Especially after successful vaccine development and mass vaccination, the economic impact of the epidemic will gradually dissipate.
The domestic economy has entered the recovery stage ahead of schedule, and investment, consumption and exports have all improved significantly. 202 1 is the first year of the tenth five-year plan, and all plans will be formally implemented. It is expected that the state will continue to increase investment in new and old infrastructure. After the dust settles in the American election, a large-scale economic stimulus plan will also be launched, and the scale is expected to reach 2 trillion US dollars. Britain's exit from the EU will also be completed in the first quarter of 20021,and the uncertainty will be reduced.
2.2. Monetary and fiscal easing accelerated the pace of recovery.
In response to the impact of the epidemic on the economy, all countries have adopted active monetary and fiscal policies, and the easing may continue on 202 1, which will accelerate the pace of global economic recovery. Under the double stimulus of finance and currency, the economy showed obvious signs of recovery in the second half of 2020. The GDP growth rate of the United States in the third quarter was as high as 33. 1%, China's GDP quickly turned positive in the second quarter, reaching 4.9% in the third quarter, and JPMorgan Chase's global comprehensive PMI has been above 50% for four consecutive months, so the global economy has passed the dark moment.
2.3. Low inventory may trigger a new wave of price increase of non-ferrous metals.
Under the background of economic recovery, the reduction of mining capital expenditure and low inventory level have laid the foundation for triggering a new cycle. The 20 17-20 19 of A-share listed non-ferrous metal companies continued to decline, and the decrease in capital expenditure meant that the new production capacity would slow down in the next 2-3 years. At the same time, industrial metal stocks are at a historical low level, especially copper and aluminum stocks are at the lowest level in recent years.
3. 1. copper: the shortage of refined copper is good for resource-based enterprises.
Copper prices have returned to the high water level in the last two years, and the last high point appeared at 20 18 after several years of supply reform.
The epidemic in South America slowed down the production of refined copper ore. In September 2020, Chile's copper production decreased by 0.8% year-on-year to 479,900 tons, and in June, it increased by 0.4% year-on-year to 4.26 million tons. Among them, the copper output of Codelco in September increased by 9.6% year-on-year to159,200 tons, and the output of10-September increased by 2.9% year-on-year; Escondida's output decreased by 6% to 9.4 1000 tons in September, and increased by 2.4% in June 5438+0-September. Collahuasi's copper output in September increased by 9.4% year-on-year to 53,400 tons, and the output in June increased by 23.2% year-on-year from 5,438+/kloc-0 to 0-9.
The import of scrap copper decreased, further compressing domestic supply. From June to September, 2020, China imported 667,000 tons of copper scrap (in kind), a significant decrease of 46. 1% year-on-year. In the second quarter, China's imports of copper scrap from Southeast Asia were greatly affected by the epidemic situation, and the recovery and export of copper scrap in areas with serious epidemic situation in Europe and America were also greatly affected. In addition, domestic copper scrap processing or trading enterprises are relatively cautious in importing, so the domestic copper scrap market is still tense.
Downstream demand continued to improve. The power sector is the largest user of copper. In 20 19, the state grid investment was very low, down 9.6% year-on-year. Compared with 20 19 in 2020, the investment growth rate in the first nine months of 2020 is-1.8%, and it is expected to achieve positive growth throughout the year. Investment and sales in the real estate sector are better than in 20 19 years, and it is expected that both will achieve positive growth. The weakening of downstream demand is mainly in the field of air conditioning. 202 1, electricity, real estate and air conditioning are expected to continue to improve.
3. 1. 1. Luoyang Molybdenum Industry: It owns TFM copper-cobalt mine, forming a strategic pattern of multi-mine and trade.
The company has four mineral sectors, namely, Congo (Gold) copper and cobalt, domestic molybdenum and tungsten, Australian copper and gold, and Brazilian niobium and phosphorus, and the third largest metal trader in the world, forming a multi-mine+trade strategic pattern, with strong performance and anti-risk ability, and the synergistic effect between trade business and mining sector has gradually become prominent. The future output of copper and cobalt ore in TFM project in Congo (DRC) may double, with copper output of 400,000 tons/year and cobalt output of 30,000 tons/year. In addition, the company participated in the wet nickel-cobalt mine project in Indonesia, and the output of nickel metal reached 654.38+0.5 million tons/year after completion. Domestic molybdenum and tungsten, Australian copper and gold, and Brazilian niobium and phosphorus businesses will remain stable, and metal trading business will play a synergistic role in other mining businesses.
3. 1.2. Zijin Mining: It has high-quality copper resources at home and abroad.
The company has three high-quality copper resources: Camoa copper mine in Congo (DRC), Timaker copper-gold mine in Serbia and Julong copper mine in China. The Camoa copper mine, Timaker copper-gold mine and Julong copper mine projects will be expanded, and the company's copper production will reach 800,000 tons in the next two years. At the same time, the company launched 65438+ billion shares for stock incentives. For the three assessment periods, Zijin Mining has set four types of assessment indicators. First, the compound growth rate of net profit is not less than 25%, and not less than the average level of the same industry or the 75th percentile of benchmark enterprises. Second, the compound growth rate of ROE is not less than 10% and not less than the average value of the same industry or the 75th percentile value of the benchmark enterprise; Third, the asset-liability ratio is not higher than 65%; The fourth is that the performance appraisal of the incentive object is above B (inclusive).
3. 1.3. western mining: Yulong copper mine is about to expand its production, with an additional copper output of 65,438+10,000 tons.
The second largest producer of lead concentrate, the second largest producer of zinc concentrate and the fifth largest producer of copper concentrate in China are all located in China. Among them, the Xitieshan lead-zinc mine in Qinghai is one of the lead-zinc mines with the largest annual beneficiation capacity in China, and the Yulong copper mine in Tibet is a rare copper mine with a capacity of more than 6 million tons in China, and its copper reserves rank second in China. The 654.38+10,000-ton reconstruction and expansion project of Yulong Copper Mine has started, with an annual processing capacity of19.89 million tons and an annual output of130,000 tons of copper and 8000 tons of molybdenum. Compared with 20 19, the copper output increased by 654.38+10,000 tons.
3.2. Aluminum: The profit of electrolytic aluminum is relatively rich.
The spot price of electrolytic aluminum is close to 16000 yuan/ton, and the price has returned to the highest water level in the last three years.
The cost of electrolytic aluminum may remain low. Domestic alumina production capacity is generally surplus, and the price performance is sluggish. In 2020, the global alumina production capacity will continue to expand, including about 8.5 million tons at home and about 3 million tons overseas. The low domestic alumina price does not constitute a squeeze on the profit of electrolytic aluminum. At present, the spot price of electrolytic aluminum exceeds10.5 million yuan/ton, and the overall profitability of the industry is good. For enterprises with lower costs, the profits are relatively rich.
Production capacity exists in the ceiling, while inventory is low. According to Aladdin's statistics, the total ceiling of compliance capacity of electrolytic aluminum industry in China is about 45 million tons. By the end of August this year, the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 42156,000 tons. It is estimated that in 2026, the new production capacity will be 3163,000 tons and 5438+0, and there will be basically no new production capacity in the future. In the second half of 2020, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum will be rapidly decontaminated. At present, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a historical low level, which provides conditions for firm prices.
Demand continues to increase, and automobile lightweight has become a new growth point. At the end of 10, the growth rate of domestic fixed assets investment turned positive, the growth rate of real estate investment reached 6.3%, and the real estate sales area returned to the same level last year. The decline in car sales has narrowed sharply. Since May 2020, the year-on-year growth rate of passenger car sales has remained above 10%. With the improvement of energy saving and emission reduction requirements, the rapid development of new energy vehicles and the acceleration of automobile lightweight, the amount of aluminum used in automobiles will further increase and become a new growth point of aluminum consumption. At the same time, the accelerated construction of new infrastructure in China has also increased the demand for aluminum.
3.2. 1. Shenhuo shares: Yunnan Shenhuo electrolytic aluminum production doubled.
Shenhuo shares form a dual main business of electrolytic aluminum and coal. The performance index of electrolytic aluminum is 6.5438+0.7 million tons, ranking sixth in China. Among them, 800,000 tons of Shenhuo in Xinjiang and 450,000 tons of Shenhuo in Yunnan have been put into production, and Shenhuo in Yunnan will continue to expand its production by 450,000 tons. This company is one of the major producers of bituminous coal in China. The total coal reserves controlled by the company are 65.438+0.86 billion tons, and the recoverable reserves are 896 million tons. At present, the annual output reaches 6 million tons. The company plans to raise funds to increase the output of 2 million tons of coal. After several years of large-scale asset impairment, the company's asset quality has been greatly improved.
3.2.2. Tianshan Aluminum Industry: The advantage of low cost is obvious.
Tianshan Aluminum Company's electrolytic aluminum compliance capacity is 6.5438+0.4 million tons, ranking tenth in the country, and its current operating capacity is 6.5438+0.2 million tons. At the same time, 2.5 million tons of alumina project in Guangxi will be laid out to realize alumina self-sufficiency. At present, it has put into production 800,000 tons, and plans to expand production by raising funds. The company has planned a 60,000-ton high-purity aluminum project, and has put 20,000 tons into production. The company's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is all located in Shihezi City, Xinjiang, equipped with its own power plant, which can meet 90% of its own power demand, with low power consumption cost, low comprehensive cost of electrolytic aluminum and strong market competitiveness.
3.3. New energy metals: policies and fundamentals drive recovery.
This policy will continue to promote a new round of development of new energy. The domestic New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (202 1-2035) clearly stated that "enterprises should be encouraged to improve the supporting capacity of key resources such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and platinum", and the strategic positioning of new energy metals was further strengthened. The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the National Energy Administration officially issued the Notice on Developing the Demonstration and Application of Fuel Cell Vehicles, and rewarded the qualified urban agglomerations for the industrialization and demonstration of key core technologies of fuel cell vehicles, forming a new development model of fuel cell vehicles with reasonable layout, different emphases and coordinated promotion. Political policy will further promote the healthy development of hydrogen energy automobile industry.
The recovery of the new energy automobile industry has accelerated. In the first quarter, affected by the epidemic, the sales of new energy vehicles in China dropped sharply. However, with the epidemic under control, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles rebounded rapidly, and the installed capacity of power batteries resumed high growth. At the same time, thanks to the increase of subsidy policy, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe have sprung up. According to AECA data, in September, the sales of new energy vehicles in nine countries including Germany, Britain and France continued to rise, with a total registration of about1330,000 vehicles, up 654.38+095% year-on-year. In the first nine months of this year, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe was about 777,000, a year-on-year increase of 65,438+005%. The European Automobile Manufacturers Union predicts that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe is expected to exceed 65,438+0,654,380+million this year, which has become the main support for the global sales growth of new energy vehicles.
3.4. Cobalt: The decrease of supply promotes the stabilization of cobalt price.
Cobalt price is at a low level. After the valuation of 20 18-20 19 has fallen sharply, the current price is at a low level.
The supply has fallen sharply. In 2020, Glencore, the largest supplier of cobalt ore, closed the Mutanda mine, reducing its cobalt production by 2.5 tons. In the first three quarters of 2020, its cobalt output was only 210.6 million tons, down 37% year-on-year. Luoyang Molybdenum, the second largest cobalt supplier, produced1.05t in the first three quarters, down 16.7% year-on-year. Although some mining companies have increased their output, they cannot offset the decline in the output of supply giants. Because the price of cobalt is still at the bottom, the main suppliers have little incentive to expand production, and the supply in 20021year is expected to remain at a low level.
The demand for consumer electronics products has rebounded, and the demand for new energy batteries has grown rapidly. Affected by the epidemic, the demand for consumer electronics will be weak in 2020. According to IDC statistics, global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2020 were 353.6 million units, down 1.3% year-on-year, and the decline was significantly narrower than that in the first half of the year. It is predicted that in 20021year, with the increase of the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones, smartphone shipments will resume positive growth. Affected by the epidemic, PC shipments performed well in 2020 and are expected to continue in 20021year. New energy vehicle batteries are still an important incremental source of cobalt consumption. According to GGII's statistics, in the first three quarters of 2020, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles was about 1.75. 1.9%, a year-on-year increase of1.9%. The installed capacity of power battery is about 77.78GWh, down 1.7% year-on-year, and the decline rate is also significantly narrower than that in the first half of the year. It is predicted that the consumption of new energy vehicles will maintain a high speed in 20021year.
3.4. 1. Huayou Cobalt Industry: cobalt and nickel layout, with continuous release of production capacity.
The company has formed three business segments: resources, nonferrous metals and new energy, and created a new energy lithium battery industry ecology from the development and smelting of cobalt and nickel resources, to the deep processing of lithium battery cathode materials, and then to the recycling of resources. In the first half of 2020, the company achieved a cobalt output of 2.8 tons (+16.2%), a ternary precursor10.3 tons (2.6%) and a copper product of 7. 1 ton (83.7%), and the production capacity was further released. The company plans to raise 6 billion yuan to build a high-nickel matte project with an annual output of 45,000 tons of metallic nickel and a ternary precursor material project with an annual output of 50,000 tons of high-nickel power batteries. The company will expand the nickel metal business, and the ternary precursor production capacity will be improved.
3.4.2. Lengrui Cobalt Industry: Cut into ternary precursors from cobalt products and extend the industrial chain.
The company's main products include electrolytic copper, electrolytic cobalt and crude hydrogen to produce cobalt oxide and cobalt powder. The company has continuously optimized its industrial structure, extended its application to new energy fields, and expanded its products to cobalt intermediates and ternary battery materials. The company's production line of electrodeposited copper with an annual output of 20,000 tons, located in kolwezi, Democratic Republic of Congo, was officially put into production at the end of April 2020, and it has been put into production. In 2020, the company raised 65.438+0.9 billion yuan through a fixed increase, taking Ganzhou Han Rui as the starting point for the company to enter the new energy field, and plans to build 65.438+0 million tons/year metallic cobalt new materials and 26,000 tons/year ternary precursor projects.
3.5. Platinum: The recovery of the automobile industry and the commercialization of hydrogen energy push up demand.
Affected by the epidemic, the price of platinum fell sharply in the first quarter of 2020 and has now returned to the pre-epidemic level.
Platinum is mainly used in the field of automotive catalysts, and the field of hydrogen energy batteries is an important growth point in the future. The recovery of the automobile industry is obvious. At the same time, China, the European Union, India and other places are providing emission standards, and the demand for platinum is increasing. Due to the high price of palladium, in early 2020, Implats of Ying Ying and Sibanye-Stillwater of BASF jointly developed a ternary platinum group metal catalyst, which will greatly increase the platinum content in the catalyst. China has issued a policy to encourage the development of hydrogen energy, and the commercialization of hydrogen energy is accelerating. As an indispensable catalyst in fuel cell stack, the demand for platinum is expected to continue to increase.
The supply is concentrated in South Africa, and it is expected that there will be a shortage of 202 1. South Africa's platinum supply accounts for 75% of the world, and the concentrated production areas are vulnerable to risks such as strikes and natural disasters. According to the report of the World Platinum Industry Association, although the supply of mines and recycling rebounded strongly month-on-month, the sharp rebound in automobile demand and the sustained strong investment demand of precious metals, including platinum, increased the demand for platinum in the third quarter of 2020, far exceeding the supply, resulting in a shortage of 22 tons this quarter. At present, it is estimated that the supply gap will be slightly more than 37 tons in 2020, and it is predicted for the first time that there will be a gap of 7 tons in 20021year.
3.5. 1. Guiyan Platinum Industry: the leading supplier of platinum group metals in China.
Kunming Precious Metals Research Institute initiated the research of platinum group metals in China, and it is the main force of knowledge innovation and technological innovation in this field in China, and is known as the "cradle of platinum group metals". The company has a complete precious metal industrial chain system, namely three core business sectors: precious metal new material manufacturing, precious metal resource recycling and precious metal supply service. It can provide customers with closed-loop solutions from precious metal raw material supply to new material manufacturing and resource recovery in the precious metal industry chain, and has obvious comprehensive advantages in market competition. With the recovery of the automobile industry and the acceleration of the domestic catalyst substitution process, the company's sales revenue and operating performance have achieved steady growth. In the first three quarters of 2020, the revenue increased by 13.66% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-profit increased by 95.26% year-on-year.
By the end of 2020 10, the PE of non-ferrous plates will be 38. 1 times, that of precious metals will be 39. 1 times, that of basic metals will be 29.8 times and that of rare metals will be 52.3 times. The valuation of non-ferrous plate is slightly higher than the historical median of 35.4 times. Affected by coronavirus, the global economy stagnated in the first quarter of 2020, and the price of non-ferrous metals, especially industrial metals, was hit, and the price fell to freezing point. However, with the prevention and control measures in place, the process of resumption of work and production has accelerated, and the price of industrial metals has quickly rebounded to a high level in recent years, driven by active fiscal and loose monetary policies. The dark moment of nonferrous metals has passed. In the situation that mining capital expenditure has slowed down for several years in a row, the release rate of production capacity may be slower than the pace of economic recovery, and the price of non-ferrous metals will be at.
(1) The stimulus policies of various countries failed to meet expectations or withdrew prematurely.
(2) The global epidemic has repeatedly led to weak demand for metals.
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