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Has the market bottomed out? Where is the bottom?
Ding Xin Huijin traces the ups and downs of the Shanghai Composite Index since 2000, and finds that it has experienced four sharp dips, with the average index falling by 57% and the average valuation falling by 68%. Through these four declines, it may be possible to deduce the six bottom characteristics of A shares. First of all, the median valuation of A shares is at a historical low. According to statistics, in the past four historical crashes, the median PE was located at the bottom of history; As of February 16, the median PE of A shares is 29 times, which is basically close to the valuation level of the past four rounds of historical plunge (27 times) and has the characteristics of "low valuation". Second, large-scale net losses occurred in individual stocks. Essence Securities once found that when the market is running well and the mood is optimistic, the net breaking rate is often lower than1%for a long time; In the bottom area of the market, the net breaking rate will rise sharply, especially around the bottom of the market, and the net breaking rate of all A shares will reach the stage top simultaneously. As of March 9, the number of "broken net" stocks in the current market is 3 18, and the P/B ratio is close to 7%, which is close to the levels of 20 13 and 20 19. Third, the turnover rate is low and the turnover is reduced. Turnover rate measures the activity of transactions between buyers and sellers. High turnover rate generally appears at the top of the market stage, while low turnover rate is the opposite. At present, the turnover rate of Wonder A is 1.6 1%, which is close to the historical bottom level. Fourth, the number of new investors has dropped significantly. Investors often run into the market when the market is busy and dare not intervene when the market is depressed. We come to the conclusion that the year-on-year growth rate of new investors or new accounts opened on the eve of the bottom of the previous A-shares is almost at the "freezing point" level. In February 18, China Clearing announced the changes in data of investors in June/kloc-0. The data shows that in June, 5438+ 10, the number of new investors was 1324300, down 36.77% year-on-year, the biggest drop in the past six years. Compared with last year's "madness" of 5438+ 10, it is now particularly "cold and cheerless". Fifth, the scale of new fund issuance is low. The scale of fund issuance may also be a reverse indicator. According to Wind's statistics, 63 funds were established in February this year (calculated according to the date of fund establishment), with a total fundraising scale of 33.767 billion yuan and an average issuance scale of 536 million yuan. This report card has hit a new low in the past three years, both in terms of total fundraising scale and average scale. If you add up the fund issuance shares in 1-2 months, it will hit a new low of nearly 7 years, even less than 1/8 in the same period last year. Sixth, a number of listed companies intensively disclose repurchase plans. The repurchase of listed companies has a positive effect on the maintenance of the secondary market, and the repurchase scale and repurchase ratio have a significant positive effect. Recently, the repurchase in the A-share market has shown signs of recovery, and high-quality listed companies are actively escorting with real money, which is also to boost investor confidence. Ding Xin Huijin believes that investment decisions are often influenced by emotions? When the market is at a relatively high point, the risk we feel is very small, and more is the excitement of rising; When the market falls, we think the risk is high, ignore the market or come to the "golden range" of investment. Pay attention to more investment methods and download Ding Xin Huijin APP.