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Comprehensive analysis of housing price trend in Australia
20 15 Australian real estate market will face a severe test, and experts from all walks of life have given their own views. One extreme view is that Steve Keen, an academic economist who once worked in western Sydney and now transferred to Kingston University in London, insists that there is a bubble in the market.

At the other extreme, Malcolm Edey, assistant governor of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), said in June last year that the rise in house prices was only a one-off rise, which was caused by financial liberalization and the transition to a period of low inflation, which basically ended 65,438+00 years ago, followed by a period when house prices in Australia were more stable than income.

In any case, a widely accepted view is that housing prices in Australia are relatively high, especially in Sydney and Melbourne.

Let's analyze it in detail:

First of all, from the perspective of macro-policy.

First, a mature real estate management system.

Australia's real estate market has more than 180 years of operating experience, and has perfected a mature real estate management model and legal protection system throughout the process. At the same time, Australia's land is private, real estate has permanent property rights, and the down payment for buying a house is only 10%. There is no property tax or inheritance tax in the process of buying a house, and there is also strict legal guarantee for renting a house.

Second, relax the immigration policy.

With the relaxation of immigration conditions in Australia, the immigration tide continues to come. According to the latest data of 5 million investment immigrant visas, as of 20 165438+20041October 30, the Australian Immigration Bureau had received 1908 investment immigrant applications, of which 1357 were formal visa applications and 9/kloc-0.

Third, loose monetary policy.

At present, in addition to the low-interest loan environment in Australia, the exchange rate of the Australian dollar against the RMB is also at a low level, which greatly reduces the cost of immigration and home ownership in Australia.

Fourth, the expansion of infrastructure construction has laid the foundation for the accelerated growth of the local economy. For example, Melbourne's "Plan Melbourne"-by 2050, Melbourne metropolis will build six new employment clusters, create a large number of shopping malls and office buildings, and bring considerable employment prospects to the local area; Another example is the 20 billion infrastructure plan "Rebuilding NSW" recently announced by the NSW government, which will provide residents of West Sydney with direct contact with the employment centers in northern and northwestern Sydney. The great improvement of infrastructure will promote the rapid development of local economy and employment, attract more people and further enhance the rigid demand for housing.

Comprehensive macro policies and other factors, the property market will be directly or indirectly positive, thus promoting market expectations and accelerating the rise in housing prices. From the perspective of demand, sales and urban performance, it is basically consistent with the macroeconomic trend.

Second, from the perspective of demand variables.

Australia has a vast territory and ranks sixth in the world, but 70% of the land is in arid or semi-arid zone, and most of the central part is uninhabitable. The population is mainly concentrated in coastal areas, such as Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and other capital cities. On the other hand, as a big immigrant country, Australia's population has grown rapidly, which has formed a strong support for Australian real estate sales and leasing. According to the latest data of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the number of people sworn in as Australian citizens increased by 46.6% from 20 12 to 20 13, setting a new high in six years. According to the forecast of the National Housing Supply Committee of Australia, by 20031year, Australia will have a baby boom with population growth, and the demand for housing will be 663,000 sets higher than the supply. Under the situation of population expansion and low housing construction rate in Australia, housing demand exceeds supply, and house prices will continue to rise.

Third, from the perspective of actual sales.

According to the data of RP Data, in fiscal year 20 13-20 14, the sales of Australian villas jumped by 10% to 348,670, while the sales of apartments also increased by 8.6% to 135330. The sales data of villas is the highest since the world economic crisis in 2007-08, and the sales of apartments are also the highest in four years. In recent years, the number of customers and purchases of Australian real estate through ANZ Consulting have also increased significantly. Housing sales have increased greatly, and the pace of de-transformation has obviously accelerated. Objectively speaking, house prices will continue to be high.

Fourthly, judging from the Australian capital city housing price index,

According to the statistics of RP Data, from June 20 13 to June 20 14, the median house price in eight capital cities in Australia increased by 8.9%, among which the median house price in Sydney increased by 13. 1%, which is still the strongest performance of the Australian property market. Considering that the interest rates of major banks in Australia are at a historical low level, the capital flow into the real estate market is more abundant, which makes the price increase continue to expand.

The analysis report of Home Loan Experts, a mortgage company, found that in the next decade, the median house price of all state capitals in Australia will exceed A $6,543.8+0,000, and by 2024, the median house price in Sydney is expected to reach A $6,543.8+0,824. Melbourne is the second most expensive, and the median price of real estate will reach 6.5438+0.36 million yuan.

From the analysis of the above four aspects, we can find that the rise in housing prices in Australia is a positive result. Don't have a speculative heartbeat when investing in Australian real estate, it should be a medium-and long-term investment, and the effect is better. Compared with other countries, the income of Australian real estate market is more stable. As far as the current Australian housing prices are concerned, there is still room for growth in the future. If you want to invest in Australian real estate, you can make a reasonable judgment according to your own conditions.

(The above answers were published on 20 15-09- 17. Please refer to the current actual purchase policy. )

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