In the fourth quarter, under the influence of a series of factors, such as increased inflation expectations, multiple subjects snapping up, and strong farmers' reluctance to sell, the prices of various grain and oil in the market rose sharply. Then, under the intensive control of national policies, the bullish atmosphere of the market weakened. By the end of 1 1, the prices of various grain and oil varieties in the grain wholesale market tend to be stable, with slightly different trends. The details are as follows: Soybean: The price trend of soybean in this ten-day market is stable. At present, the wholesale price of soybeans in the market is 4640-4940 yuan/ton, which is the same as the middle. Edible oil: Under the influence of the country's continuous increase in dumping and the decline of oil futures, the willingness of oil plants to bid weakened, and the price of edible oil with a firm trend in the previous period fell slightly. At present, the wholesale price of bulk vegetable oil is 10000- 10200 yuan/ton, and the wholesale price of bulk salad oil is 10000- 10200 yuan/ton. In-depth reports on the fundamentals of the edible oil market will support the further strengthening of the edible oil market. First, the reduction of global soybean planting area in the new year supports the price of soybean oil. Although the demand for oil has not exceeded the supply, the price of oil is still at a low level relative to cotton, corn, sugar and other agricultural products. Judging from the price relationship, the current price ratio of continuous soybean and corn contracts in the United States is about 2.3, which is lower than the average level of 2.7 in recent years; The price ratio of US soybean and cotton futures contracts is about 10. 1, compared with 14.4 in the same period last year. Soybean is already at a complete disadvantage in the price relationship with corn and cotton, and will be at a disadvantage in the competition for planting area in the coming year. This has been reflected in the selection of cotton and soybean planting in Brazil in the new year. Brazilian farmers have changed some land where soybeans were planted to cotton. Brazil's national commodity supply company predicts that the cotton planting area in Brazil will increase by as much as 37% in 20 10 compared with last year, and the output will exceed the record of1600,000 tons set in 2006/2007. Because the price increase of cotton and corn is much higher than that of soybean, the global soybean planting area will be affected by the expansion of corn and cotton. 20 10/20 1 1 soybean planting area can not meet the strong demand in the next year, which will inevitably lead to an increase in soybean oil prices. 2.2010/201kloc-0/China rapeseed planting area decreased to support the price of rapeseed oil. According to the monitoring of the National Grain and Oil Information Center, farmers' enthusiasm for planting rapeseed is generally low this year, and the total planting area of rapeseed may decline. This is mainly because the income of rape is lower than other crops. According to the statistics of relevant departments, the average income of rape planting in the Yangtze River basin in 20 10 was 100.6 yuan/mu, which was 35.2 yuan/mu higher than that in 2009. The average income of wheat in the Yangtze River valley 158. 1 yuan/mu is 57.5 yuan/mu higher than that of rape. Farmers are more enthusiastic about growing wheat than rape. In addition, it is difficult to popularize rape mechanization in a large area, and the rising labor cost in the past two years has also adversely affected rape planting. The reduction of rapeseed planting area will support the price of rapeseed oil. Third, the slowdown in palm oil production in Southeast Asia supports palm oil prices. Palm oil is the main substitute for soybean oil. In the past 10 years, palm oil production in Southeast Asian countries showed a rapid growth trend, which played an important role in alleviating the global oil supply pressure. However, the growth of palm oil production in Southeast Asian countries slowed down this year, which was mainly affected by the "El Ni? o" phenomenon in 2009. According to the prediction of relevant professionals, the "El Nino" phenomenon in 2009 may last until 20 1 1, and the palm oil production in Malaysia will not improve greatly next year. Limited land resources and future climate variability will lead to unsustainable high-speed oil production growth in Southeast Asia, which will support palm oil prices. Fourth, the rigid growth of demand and the change of supply and demand pattern in the oil market. The USDA report predicts that the global total supply of vegetable oil of 2010/201kloc-0 is156.75 million tons, an increase of 3.3% over the previous year, while that of 20 10 1. According to the report of National Cereals and Oils Information Center on June 5438+065438+ 10, the total supply of vegetable oil in China in 2011year was 30.06 million tons, up 5.9% over the previous year, while the total demand for vegetable oil was 27.5 million tons, up 7.7% over the previous year. To sum up, many factors are not conducive to the production of the three major vegetable oils in the new year, and the rigid demand for vegetable oils will not change. Therefore, a new round of edible oil price increase is about to begin. & lt/p & gt；