First, the price of feed raw materials has risen and fallen sharply.
The first three months were fine, and the prices of soybean meal, cotton meal and rapeseed meal rose sharply in April. By the end of June, the average prices of the three companies had skyrocketed to 3,600 yuan/ton, 2,970 yuan/ton and 2,850 yuan/ton, with the increase rates of 56.80%, 36.24% and 4 1.4 1% respectively. Soybean meal is the leader, and other kinds of meal basically follow. The main reason for the surge in soybean meal in the first half of the year is two words: hype. From the rain in Argentina in early April, the strike in Brazil and the traffic jam, it has been copied to the weather problem in the new season in June, and the domestic central bank has raised funds speculation. Although demand and consumption have not improved, the price of soybean meal has soared 1 100 yuan/ton. Bottom line: insufficient demand, hype!
Needless to say, cotton meal and rapeseed meal, the price naturally rises with soybean meal …
Corn prices once fell to an all-time low in the first half of the year, and then bottomed out. There is not much explanation for the decline. 250 million tons of temporary storage inventory, coupled with temporary storage policy reform and demand, will not decline. The price increase that began in May will be attributed to the "sequela" of temporary storage. The storage of 1.25 million tons of northeast corn in this quarter led to the bottom of grass-roots grain sources, and the only remaining high-quality corn in this quarter, Huanghuai area in North China, took the lead in leading the national corn price out of the road of continuous increase. As of June 30th, the national average price of second-class corn with water content 14% was about 1954 yuan/ton, which was 3.03% lower than the beginning of the year and1.45% higher than the lowest point at the end of May.
The price increase of animal protein raw materials such as fish meal and whey powder in the first half of the year is even more amazing. The price of imported fish meal rose from 1 1800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to14,200 yuan/ton in the middle and late June, and the increase of whey powder, which is also an animal protein raw material, was as high as nearly 1500 yuan/ton.
Second, the "price war" of feed ushered in the "price increase tide" of feed.
In the first half of this year, the feed industry started two "price wars". Initially, Haida, Tongwei, Yuehai and other aquatic feed giants took the lead in implementing price reduction promotion activities. Subsequently, in March, pig feed enterprises started the first round of "price war", and the price of pig feed of various varieties was lowered by 50- 100 yuan/ton. At that time, the price of feed raw materials fell to a historical low. At the same time, the pig market is depressed, the stock is low, and the feed sales are seriously hindered. It has become the best choice for enterprises to increase sales through promotion.
Not long after, the aquaculture industry tasted the sweetness brought by the promotion, and the feed price went up ... Since May, as the price of feed raw materials bottomed out, aquatic products led the whole feed market, and pig feed enterprises raised prices twice in two months, in mid-May and early June respectively. Calculated, the concentrated feed for pigs increased by 300-400 yuan/ton, the feed for teaching trough and suckling pigs increased by 200-400 yuan/ton, and the batch increased by 100-200 yuan/ton. ...
It stands to reason that raising feed prices by enterprises is not a "price war" in the strict sense. However, Bian Xiao asked Du Niang in particular, and in its definition, there was "the situation that some industries won the bid at a high price". In fact, in the feed industry, "buying up and not buying down" is a common thing. For the demand side, low price is a good thing, but feed raw materials have risen so much. Who dares to use the low-priced materials sold by some enterprises?
Third, the temporary storage of corn, which has been implemented for 8 years, has been cancelled!
To say the most explosive agricultural news in the first half of the year is to cancel the temporary storage of corn.
Since the purchase price of temporary storage of corn was lowered to 1 yuan/kg for the first time last year, the market has speculated that the temporary storage system will be cancelled next year. On March 28th, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Central Agricultural Office, the Ministry of Finance and other departments held a news briefing. The meeting pointed out that in 20 16, the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia adjusted the temporary purchasing, storage and donation policies of corn to a new mechanism of "buying by the market" plus "subsidy", which means that the temporary purchasing and storage policy of corn, which has been implemented for eight years, is about to withdraw from the historical stage. In addition, the Information Office of the Ministry of Agriculture held a press conference on April 7, and the reform of the temporary storage policy was further determined. As soon as the news came out, all parties in the market were bearish on the market outlook, which became the main driver of the corn price bottoming out in mid-April.
Although temporary storage has been abolished, the policy details after the reform are still vague. What is the reserve price of market-oriented acquisition? When will the price be subsidized when it falls? How much subsidy ... what these farmers are most concerned about is still unknown.
Fourth, the official slogan: feed enterprises will be reduced by 3000!
At the beginning of the year, Director Ma pointed out that in 2065, the number of feed enterprises dropped to 6000, 438+05, and in 2065, the number dropped to 7000, 438+0000! The number of feed enterprises is 20 12 and 20 10858,1013 respectively. This means that in the past five years, 40% of feed enterprises have disappeared. ...
Then someone said: the number of feed enterprises will be stable at 2000-3000 in the future. This is emphasized by Qi Guanghai, director of the Feed Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, in an interview. This means that more than half of the 6,000 feed enterprises in 2065,438+05 will face elimination. Among these "disappeared" enterprises, there are no "certificates", some have closed down at a loss, some have changed careers, and of course some have been taken over by large enterprises. Especially in the past two years, the appetite of feed listed companies is growing, and cross-border mergers and acquisitions, cross-industry mergers and acquisitions, and cross-border mergers and acquisitions are becoming more and more common. Of course, qualified enterprises have also transformed and upgraded to do feed processing, such as China Feed Temei.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) integration transformation: feed enterprises have gone to raise pigs!
As the saying goes, soldiers who don't want to be generals are not good soldiers! When used in our feed enterprises, it becomes "a feed enterprise that doesn't want to raise pigs is not a good enterprise". Why? Let's look at the following table first: