At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.24% to 3,286.6 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.29% to12,842.3 points, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index rose 2.2 1% to 25 16.87 points. The transaction between the two cities was nearly 950 billion yuan, and the net inflow of northbound funds exceeded 654.38+0.5 billion yuan. Brokerage trust, insurance, aerospace, diversified finance and coal mining were among the top gainers.
If the bull market is expected to come, why buy a brokerage?
Because brokers are the strongest varieties in the bull market, they are among the cows for three reasons:
(1) During the bull market, the trading volume will increase exponentially, including the active trading of old accounts and the entry of new accounts, which can bring exponential growth in commission income to brokers. However, in this process, the cost of brokers will not increase exponentially, but will only increase slightly, which will bring higher net profit growth to brokers.
(2) In the bull market, the self-operated stock assets of brokers will also get good returns and continue to improve the profits of brokers.
(3) The substantial growth of securities firms' performance in the bull market is highly certain, which will be fully expected by the market in the early stage of the bull market. Therefore, the valuation of brokers in the early bull market will be greatly improved, which will never drive the stock price to rise sharply, and then the subsequent performance will be cashed, and the stock price will rise sharply in the short term.
There were two famous large-scale bull markets in history. Let's talk about it separately, and understand the law of bull market through resumption of trading.
First, the bull market in 2007.
From June 2005 10 to June 2007 10, the index rose from 998 points to 6 124, with an increase of 5 13%. Let's review it first.
The first stage: small-cap stocks go first. At the beginning of the bull market, small-cap stocks rose first, represented by Tianwei Baobian, suning universal and other real estate and information services sectors, with an increase of 16.3%. The index rose from 998 to 1 16 1, the small and medium-sized board rose by 50%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose by 20%. About six months of history.
The second stage: 30 merchants rioted in color, among which CITIC Securities and Chihong became the leading stocks, and the zinc and germanium index also rose from 1 163 by 5 1. 1% to 1757, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rising by about 87% and the small and medium-sized board by 50%.
The third stage: the 28 th Division, with finance and real estate as the protagonists.
The fourth stage: general rising market, the index rose by about 48.5% from 2080 points to 304 1.
The fifth stage: the market is crazy, the index rises at 45 degrees, and it almost rises directly after washing, and all aspects skyrocket, and the P/E ratio is invalid. Individual stocks rose by an average of 60%, blue-chip stocks in the market were relatively weak, and real estate, public utilities, textiles and clothing led the gains. Theme stocks occupy the mainstream. The number of new accounts opened in the two cities has soared, and retail investors have become the main force in the market. The market ended with a cock crow at 530 midnight.
The index ranges from 2734 to 4335. The increase is 58.6%. History lasted for more than three months. Stage 6: Elephant solo dance. After 530, the super 28 market was staged. Weighted elephants dance solo, and fund-led index stocks start a blue-chip bubble. A-share price-earnings ratio exceeds 60 times, and non-ferrous metals, finance and steel have become the leading sectors with a decline of as much as 40%. Only about 100 stocks rose more than 100, and the last crazy market was staged, with an increase of about 80% from 3404 to 6 124. In the past five months, A-shares have experienced a 20 13 surge in small and medium-sized stocks headed by the Growth Enterprise Market, as well as a unique increase in weight in the previous period, especially in 30 companies, banks and insurance companies.
Second, the bull market 20 15
1, the market is pessimistic about economic expectations at the beginning, and the overall allocation strategy tends to hold a group to keep warm. In the first three months, there was a general increase, with military industry, machinery and automobiles at the top, banks at the bottom, and all industries rising, with no obvious difference.
2. After two months of 14 and 10, the bull market was formally established and entered the accelerated stage. Three months later, the industry was divided. During this period, non-bank finance and banks have always maintained the leading growth and achieved excess returns, while other industries, such as electronics and medical biology, have all underperformed the index and also experienced negative returns. Weak stocks make up, strong stocks make up, that is, the first round rises well and the second round rises badly.
3.65438+After February 2005, it entered the middle period of bull market, and the industry differentiation disappeared and returned to the general growth pattern. During this period, the media, architectural decoration and computers led the gains, achieving excess returns. The overall increase of other industries is relatively average, but banks and non-bank finance are at the bottom. During this period, the performance of the industry was similar to that of the previous wave, and they all abandoned high and went down. Through these changes, the enlightenment to us is that every time it rebounds, the leading plate is different. At that time, it rose a lot, and the next round rose less.
4.65438+After May 2005, the final sprint was ushered in, and the overall performance of the industry was similar to the general trend. During the period of national defense, military industry, computers, communications, etc. High-elastic varieties led the gains, others followed the rebound, and banks and non-bank finance were at the bottom. In terms of industry rotation, it is similar to previous rounds.
In summary, it can be seen that the brokerage sector has contributed to the bull market. Generally, the second wave begins to break out and ignite the whole market. In this round of market, A shares first stepped out of a structural rising channel. After the index broke through 3000 points, the brokerage sector started, and the increase expanded rapidly, leading the two cities. According to the previous two bull markets, this is the second stage of the bull market, and the third stage is the general market. The industry differentiation will gradually disappear and the general market will begin. Taking history as a mirror, we can see the universal law of bull market. At present, the market turnover has greatly increased. After the structural bull market ended, the brokerage sector broke out in an all-round way, and the signs of market bull market became more and more obvious.
Yuekai Securities believes that in terms of configuration, we can focus on the following four main lines:
(1) technology stocks are booming, focusing on consumer electronics, 5G and other related investment fields;
(2) Benefiting from the expectation of reform and the recovery of market sentiment, we are optimistic about the rising space of brokerage stocks;
(3) blue-chip consumption of medicine, biology, food and beverage, household appliances, etc.;
(4) Reform of state-owned enterprises and improvement of future orders for infrastructure, paying attention to blue-chip stocks with prefix.