Stimulated by the news that Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Company bought TSMC at the bottom, on June 5438+065438+1October 65438+20cm, the A-share Wind Semiconductor Select Index rose more than 7%, and individual stocks set off a daily limit, including Chen Ju, Chuangyao Technology, Zhuo Shengwei (300782), New Peng Wei and Sheng Bang (30066655).
American semiconductor index enters technology bull market.
Why did the semiconductor plate suddenly erupt? Zhang Wentian, the fund manager of Baoying Fund, said that the main reason was: 1. The market expects that the third quarter of this year will be the worst stage of the fundamentals and performance of related companies, and the follow-up industrial chain is expected to gradually usher in repair from the perspective of inventory inflection point; 2. Recently, hot spots in the A-share sector rotate, and semiconductor institutions hold relatively few positions, with obvious signs of institutional funds covering positions; 3. The news that Buffett increased his holdings of TSMC, a leading foundry company, has a catalytic effect.
Since the beginning of this year, due to the weak downstream consumption, the overall prosperity of the semiconductor industry is not good, and the semiconductor sector continues to fall into adjustment. As of the close of 15, the semiconductor selection index still fell by 23. 15% during the year, and nearly 40 concept stocks still fell by more than 20%. Will, Ding Hui Science and Technology (603 160), Xinhai Science and Technology and many other concept stocks halved.
Not only A shares, but also the global semiconductor industry has fallen into a cold winter, and its share price has fallen sharply. For example, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen by nearly 50% since the beginning of this year, and the share prices of semiconductor giants such as NVIDIA, TSMC and AMD have all halved during the year.
However, the share price of semiconductor companies ushered in a turnaround a month ago. The share price of American semiconductor companies rebounded first. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 23.35% in the past month and entered the technology bull market. Major constituent stocks have bottomed out and rebounded. Nearly half of the constituent stocks rose by more than 20% in the past month, among which Ram Research, ASML, Applied Materials and NVIDIA rose by 52.4%, 47.76%, 44.62% and 37.07% respectively.
The share of semiconductor funds has increased against the market.
Affected by the surge in the semiconductor sector, the OTC fund of heavy semiconductor and the index fund of tracking chip industry in the market collectively rose on June 5438+0 15. For example, chip ETF fund, chip 50ETF and chip leading ETF rose by 7. 19%, 7. 1% and 6.53% respectively.
Among the OTC funds, the net value of active funds such as Taixin Small and Medium-sized Select, Nuoan Growth (320007), China Merchants Advantage Enterprise and Galaxy Innovation Growth of Chongcang Semiconductor all increased by more than 5% every day.
However, for the whole year, the overall performance of semiconductor theme funds is not good, and most funds lose more than 20% during the year.
The data shows that the attitude of fund investors towards semiconductor theme funds is declining and they are buying more.
Wind data shows that as of June 2022, 5438+065438+1October 15, the share of six semiconductor-themed ETFs has increased in the past month, with a total increase of165438+83 million copies, including Guotai CES semiconductor chip ETF, Guolian' an CSI all-index semiconductor ETF, and.
Among passive funds, the latest scale of Guotai CES semiconductor chip ETF, Guolian 'an CSI Quan Zhi semiconductor ETF and Huaxia CSI semiconductor chip ETF all exceeded10 billion yuan, which were12.53 million yuan,122.28 million yuan and177.98 million yuan respectively.
In September this year, the first batch of ETFs mainly investing in science and technology innovation board chips were officially approved. On September 30th, Huaan SSE science and technology innovation board Chip ETF and Harvest SSE science and technology innovation board Chip ETF were successfully issued and listed, which continued to bring incremental funds to the semiconductor sector.
Judging from the share of OTC semiconductor active fund, by the end of the third quarter, Cai Songsong's share of Nuoan's growth increased by 2.3 billion shares, Kong Xuebing's share of Jin Xin's prudent strategy and Jin Xin's industry optimization increased by 270 million shares and 840 million shares respectively, and the shares of Taixin's small and medium-sized selection, investment advantage enterprises and Galaxy's innovative growth all increased.
These areas are expected to usher in a valuation repair market.
The enthusiasm of fund investors to add semiconductor theme funds is high, which is inseparable from the long-term investment opportunities contained in the semiconductor industry.
Kong, the fund manager of Jin Xin Fund, recently said in an interview with China, a brokerage firm, that China has the largest semiconductor application market in the world, and the total annual semiconductor import even exceeds crude oil. China's leap from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing power needs the support of a strong semiconductor industry, which contains long-term investment opportunities in terms of efficiency improvement and safety control.
However, after years of development, the industry status of domestic semiconductor companies is changing all the time, and the stock price performance of related companies will continue to differentiate. Kong pointed out that the domestic semiconductor industry is superimposed with inevitable cyclical fluctuations and growth opportunities created by domestic substitution. The division of labor in the industry is becoming more and more detailed, and the industrial chain has basically achieved full coverage. From the overall lack of core last year to the structural shortage this year, the accumulated inventory in some areas is too large and there is a staged surplus. There are obvious differences in the prosperity of each sub-industry, which is manifested in the differentiation of stock prices. For example, the prosperity of some consumer chips has declined, and the stock price has fallen sharply. With the forward-looking business layout and continuous R&D accumulation, the small leaders in a few sub-sectors have seized the opportunity of domestic substitution, and their business performance and market share have been significantly improved. In this year's overall downturn in the industry market environment, the stock prices of related companies have obvious relative returns.
From a fundamental point of view, Zhang Wentian, the proposed fund manager of Baoying Fund, believes that the semiconductor boom entered the destocking stage in the fourth quarter of this year, and the inventory pressure of chip design companies gradually eased. Now the semiconductor boom target has entered the polishing process from the downward stage, and it is expected that there will be an inflection point in performance and profitability in the second quarter of next year.
In terms of stock price, short-term trading and expected factors are often earlier than the profit turning point, just like the bottoming process of the last semiconductor cycle (2019q1-2019q3), and the market also comes before the profit turning point. However, the decline of semiconductor design this year is generally above 50%. Standing at the current time point, it is necessary to maintain the preliminary judgment that the semiconductor stock price is in the relative bottom area.
What areas of the semiconductor industry are favored by institutions? In the medium term, Zhang Wentian, the proposed fund manager of Baoying Fund, believes that the track or target with certain alpha logic, as well as the target with a large decline in the previous stock price and certain alpha logic of the company's products, are expected to usher in the valuation repair market.
Open source securities said that the capital expenditure of fabs is high, and the autonomy of domestic semiconductor materials and equipment is accelerating. Chinese mainland's wafer manufacturing capacity ratio is still low, while the domestic semiconductor market demand is relatively high in the world, and there is still much room for improvement compared with the demand.
Kong Xuebing is more optimistic about the long-term investment opportunities brought by the acceleration of localization substitution and the increase of market share of excellent companies. Domestic substitution links need to rely on continuous R&D accumulation and industrial chain coordination, from point to line and then to surface, to achieve the key core technology breakthrough from 0 to 1. The semiconductor field where domestic substitution is expected to accelerate mainly focuses on the previous link of wafer manufacturing. Consumer chips and power semiconductors, which are greatly affected by macroeconomics, are currently in the destocking stage, and the most difficult moment of marginal impact has passed, and there is a certain room for valuation repair in the future. However, in the long run, these categories may be affected by high permeability and intensified competition, and the valuation level may gradually move closer to consumer electronics, which is not suitable for using semiconductor valuation framework.