Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the LPR has been adjusted several times, and the LPR over five years has been lowered by 15 BP compared with the end of last year, which has also led to the downward adjustment of mortgage interest rates in different degrees throughout the country. According to the monitoring data, the national first home loan interest rate dropped by 28BP compared with the end of last year, and the second home loan interest rate dropped by 27BP compared with the end of last year, both far exceeding the five-year LPR decline.
Specifically, among the 4 1 cities, the average interest rate of the first home loan in 22 cities decreased month-on-month, while that in Kunming, Zhongshan, Wenzhou and Suzhou decreased by more than 10BP. In addition, three cities have adjusted back, and 16 cities are the same as the previous period.
During the monitoring period, the average interest rate of the first home loan in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen remained unchanged, and the interest rate of the second home loan only changed in Guangzhou, which was 4BP lower than the previous level. But as far as banks are concerned, many banks in Guangzhou have adjusted their mortgage interest rates, and several banks in Beijing have also adjusted their second home loan interest rates.
The number of cities that cut mortgage interest rates has decreased compared with previous months. The interest rates of the first home loan in Kunming and Suzhou were lowered again by more than 10 BP, which was more than 60 BP lower than that at the end of last year. The interest rate of the first home loan in Tianjin was lowered by 8BP last month, and then adjusted back by 8 BP this month.
During the monitoring period, among the ten cities with the lowest interest rate on the first home loan in China, except Dalian, all other cities fell below 5%, and Harbin became the second lowest interest rate on the first home loan in China. Among the top ten cities, five cities have lowered their mortgage interest rates in this period, and Wuxi, Hefei and Nanning are still the top three cities with the highest mortgage interest rates in China.
From the price point of view, on July 15, the central bank launched a medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation of 400 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 2.95%, which was the same as the previous period. According to the past practice, the change of MLF interest rate in the current month has a strong guiding role in LPR quotation, so LPR will remain stable and not fluctuate in a high probability; From the policy point of view, the central bank lowered the interest rates of refinancing and rediscounting at the beginning of this month, signaling that it will guide the financing cost of the real economy to decline through more flexible monetary policy. The big idea is to broaden the interest rate in the credit market to support the weak financing in the real economy, and at the same time implement a prudent monetary policy on the basis of reasonable profit-making, so as to prevent the funds from being divorced from reality and bringing about major financial risks. Therefore, considering the above factors comprehensively, it is expected that the LPR will maintain its previous value on July 20, and it is less likely to go down.
Since the second half of the year, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Dongguan, Shenzhen and other overheated real estate areas have begun to tighten the property market regulation policy, especially Shenzhen's "7 15 New Deal" can be called the strictest property market regulation policy in Shenzhen. On July 15, Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau and other eight departments jointly issued the Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of Shenzhen Real Estate Market, covering eight aspects, including purchase restriction, credit policy, tax policy, luxury house identification, hot real estate sales, online sign management, second-hand housing transaction information publicity, and handling of property market violations. "Don't speculate in real estate" and "Prohibition of illegal inflow of consumer loan funds into the property market" have been frequently mentioned by the regulatory authorities recently. In addition, since the beginning of this year, the national mortgage interest rate has dropped by more than 20 basis points, far exceeding the decline of LPR. Local market interest rate pricing self-regulatory agencies are likely to be more cautious in reducing mortgage interest rates to avoid stimulating market sentiment. In the future, mortgage interest rates may fluctuate slightly on a stable basis.