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Analysis 1992 and 2003-07 China real estate overheating phenomenon and similarities and differences.
In order to curb the soaring housing prices, especially in some big cities, the state has taken a number of regulatory measures to crack down on real estate speculation. Since the implementation of these policies, how about the real estate in China?

Under a series of control measures and restrictive regulations, Shanghai's housing prices have dropped by 15-30% from the high prices at the end of 2004. The sales volume of commodity buildings also dropped significantly. However, the house price in the urban area is still around 10 thousand per square meter.

Beijing's housing price is the capital because of the expansion of the construction of affordable housing. Compared with last year's housing price inflation in Shanghai, it is still relatively stable. Beijing's housing price is characterized by long-term stability and high, and the average housing price is also around 8,000 yuan per square meter.

House prices in other large and medium-sized cities in China have risen to varying degrees from last year to now. The range of increase should be between 10 and 20%. Some areas are more, such as Shenyang. (Limited by geographical location, transportation, economy, commerce, education and other conditions)

The prices of cities in the Yangtze River Delta region of China are generally between 5,000 and 7,000.

Of course, the measures to limit the rise in housing prices have achieved certain results, especially in Shanghai. But we should also see the particularity of housing prices in Shanghai. Its high housing prices in China also reflect the slowness and inability of the local government and relevant departments in regulation and control. Therefore, it is also necessary and necessary to squeeze the housing price bubble in Shanghai. Even now, its price may not completely return to the so-called "rational return"! Degree!

Shanghai, like other cities in the Yangtze River Delta, has a considerable number of foreign buyers. Because the profit of mortgage loan is considerable, the extra income of loan, etc. A large amount of uncontrolled lending by banks, fuelled by real estate speculators, speculation and deception by real estate developers, and local governments profiting from it. All these make its house price sky-high in China.

As far as China is concerned, generally speaking, house prices will continue to rise rather than fall. Because the land price is rising, the threshold of real estate entering the market is rising, and the cost is also rising, whether it is the construction cost or the so-called "public relations" cost. The country's excessive dependence on real estate in economic and economic growth can't make its price drop at all, because it involves many interests.

Now the house price in our country has deviated far from its value, and the added value in the price is surprisingly high. Many intangible social factors account for most of the cost. As far as the law of commodity operation is concerned, house prices have been rising sharply for more than ten years and have never fallen, which in itself violates the law of value operation of commodity economy. If house prices operate in a normal market environment, how can they only go up and not down?

Naturally, the real estate industry is one of the economic pillars of this country. Many industries are related to it and many departments have benefited from it.

There are many reasons why house prices are not allowed to fall. As a result, the ratio of house price to income in China far exceeds the international level by 6 times, while that in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen reaches 10 times. This high housing price is in sharp contrast with China's national income. For their own interests, the government and banks lack a complete and scientific system in real estate development and building construction, borrow excessively and never recover, which also makes the trick of real estate developers to drive up housing prices come true.

For real estate, Chinese people are using decades of savings to fulfill their long-cherished wish. Therefore, the demand for housing will always rise, and supply will not equal demand. Due to the low rate of economic return and operating return in China (for various reasons), a considerable part of fixed assets investment is invested in real estate. Social idle funds are also transferred to real estate in large quantities because of the need to preserve value. Many industries are sharing this fast fat, and they are also making a big fuss about related products in this industry, which in turn raises prices and constantly pushes up the cost of real estate. The rise of cost and house price forms an interactive force, which promotes each other and creates a vicious circle, which makes the increase of house price exceed the normal state.

At present, the idle rate of new real estate in China is between 20% and 60%. There are many residential facilities that do not meet the requirements and fail to fulfill the contract, but they are all listed in a hurry. The requirements of business functional departments are not strict, banks can't recover loans, and the state lacks effective supervision measures for idle real estate, which also makes real estate developers willing to make great efforts, the more the better, and they are not afraid of not selling, but the more they sell later, the greater the profits. The continuous escalation of housing prices has also caused psychological panic to the people, fearing that housing prices will rise more and more in the future, forming a situation of rushing to buy for fear of waiting.

At present, the domestic suppression of housing prices in individual areas is also temporary and limited. In fact, this has played a role by restraining the total social demand and restricting real estate speculation. But people's demand for housing is objective. With the accumulation of time, this demand will not weaken but will rise. Therefore, it is impossible to solve the problem from the root without solving the problem of insufficient supply. In urban real estate construction, it is necessary to strictly stipulate the scientific proportion of commercial housing, affordable housing and housing for the needy, ensure the housing supply of ordinary residents, and limit developers' blind pursuit of high profits. Otherwise, we can't take care of the legitimate needs of civilians to buy basic housing to make a living.

In the past, any regulations and restrictions made by the state on real estate developers, especially policies that may reduce their profits, have been successfully and effectively passed on to consumers. Today, with the popularization of large-sized residential buildings, almost all of them are above 100 square meters, and the actual use value has dropped significantly. This kind of house not only reduces the cost but also increases the benefit, which is a two-way benefit. Construction quality and construction procedures have been declining and shrinking, and more and more "rough houses" have been sold.

In the domestic real estate industry, economists should make a special and in-depth study on the cost, price, value, annual income-to-house ratio and profit of real estate in China, and analyze and expose the "comparative house price" quoted by real estate developers in driving up house prices. Is it normal for China's housing prices to catch up with Europe and America? How does the income of China residents, especially ordinary residents, compare with others? So obviously, absurd arguments are actually used by them as reasons for unlimited price increases? The national price department doesn't know who it works for. If the real estate industry is not standardized and operates irrationally, the social and economic order in China will be seriously destroyed, and the harmonious and stable society will leave us.