Hello, I'm Mr. Liang. Please forgive me if I have offended.

One,

For the vast majority of office workers, if they can become middle class, they will change their lives. How to become a middle class? There are two main ways: either to increase work income or to increase financial income.

Second,

There have been many analyses on how important financial management is, but there has never been a quantitative analysis on how important it is, so the general public is still in the stage of vague understanding. One day, Liang suddenly had an epiphany and thought of a method to quantitatively analyze the importance of financial management. Draw a direct conclusion:

If an ordinary office worker can achieve an annualized rate of return of 10% for a long time, his total wealth will increase by an additional 69% when he retires. What is the concept of wealth growth of 69%? Imagine: What is the difference between a person with an annual salary of 65,438+10,000 and a person with an annual salary of170,000? You can spend 1 10,000 in a lifetime. What's the difference between flowers 1.7 million? Of course, this conclusion is based on many assumptions, such as assuming annual income growth rate 10%, savings rate of 30%, and working for 30 years. Under different income growth rates and investment returns, the ratio of wealth management income to work income is as follows: It can be seen that if the investment return rate can exceed 15%, then the wealth management income will exceed the work income. Therefore, this formula can basically quantitatively express the importance of financial management: the income from financial management can approach or even exceed the value of wealth created by people's life work.

Third,

As time goes by, Liang feels more and more that Liang's analysis of the importance of financial management is still flawed. Two questions:

First, it is too long and difficult to keep the 30-year average annualized rate above 10%;

Second, after 30 years of hard work, it will eventually double, which is still not attractive enough.

It was not until Liang repeatedly studied the famous economist's "Campo" cycle theory that he realized the importance of financial management. First, directly quote Zhou Jintao's core point of view: "The wealth of life does not depend on wages, but on your investment in asset prices." "A person's life, can get the opportunity in theory only three times. If you don't seize every opportunity, the wealth of your life will be gone. If you seize one of these opportunities, you will at least become a middle class. " "Life is enriched by Compaq. The wealth track of our life is traceable. The wealth trajectory of life is the Kondratiev cycle. "

These views are subversive, which are reflected in:

1, he thinks that the wealth of life mainly depends on investment, not wages. The public has always regarded work income as the main source, thinking that financial management is just icing on the cake, but his view is completely different. He believes that the income from work is limited, and if there is a fundamental change in the wealth situation, we can only rely on the price of investment assets.

2, everyone will have a great chance to realize the great change of wealth in his life, but only three times, just seize it once. In other words, there must be great wealth opportunities, but they are scarce.

The trajectory of life wealth is regular. If we can follow the Campo cycle and use the right methods, we can seize the few great wealth opportunities in life.

To prove his point, Zhou Jintao cited an example: "It doesn't matter that you got a job in China Securities ten years ago. Ten years ago, everyone bought a house next to CITIC Jiantou Securities, which is really important. Because CITIC Jiantou is located in Chaoyangmen, Beijing, now the house has risen tenfold, and everyone can't earn it in ten years. The wealth of life does not depend on wages, but on your investment in asset prices. " This example almost perfectly explains the importance of financial management: the wealth that investment can bring can be several times that of your work income. Even if you only seize an investment opportunity once, it is enough to change the wealth trajectory of your life. Therefore, the importance of financial management is not to double the value of assets in 30 years, as Liang said at the beginning, but to seize a major opportunity and turn N times. In teacher Zhou's example, many people are negative examples. If you had taken the principal of 300,000 yuan and then borrowed 700,000 yuan from the bank to buy a house in Chaoyang District, Beijing, wouldn't you be a multimillionaire now? According to the income level of the past ten years, you can't earn100000 even if you work for 20 years. Ten years of hard work is not as good as an investment decision to buy a house in Beijing at that time. There are only three chances in this life. Why don't you catch it? Everyone should reflect on it for three reasons.

First, there is no concept of financial management, I don't know the importance of financial management, and I don't raise financial management to a strategic height that changes my life's destiny;

Second, I feel that I have no money to manage. I always thought that investment and financial management should wait until I had money, but I never thought that I could use my parents' money and other sources to manage my money.

Third, the investment level is not good. The investment horizon is narrow, and I don't understand the real estate investment field at all. I don't know whether to invest in first-tier cities first, so I just want to buy a house there.

Because everyone is not ready: strategically, they don't know enough about the importance of investment and financial management, and tactically, they don't understand the methods of various asset investments. It is normal not to catch it, and it is wrong to catch it.

In addition to this example, Liang also wants to share two examples that have brought important enlightenment to Liang.

The first one is a classic story of a low-risk financial expert realizing financial freedom. During the period of 20 13-20 14, the company made a profit of over 10 million yuan by investing in convertible bonds, and realized financial freedom at one opportunity. His success can be summarized as follows:

First, the professional level of investment is high. First of all, it is reflected in his broad investment vision, because from the perspective of the whole market, few people really know about convertible bonds. The second variety is selected at a high level, and the Bank of China with a high risk-return ratio is selected to convert bonds, and then the highest return is doubled;

Second, the timing is right. Buy at a low price when the convertible bond market is at the bottom of history;

The third is to enter a heavy position. Almost all Man Cang bought this convertible bond with high concentration;

The fourth is to add leverage. The convertible bonds of China Bank dropped to 89.3 yuan at the lowest and reached 194. 16 yuan at the highest. Even if you buy at the lowest price and sell at the highest price, that is, 65,438+065,438+07% of the income, it is impossible to achieve financial freedom by investing 65,438+065,438+070,000 yuan in principal. He used some methods to enlarge the leverage to 10 times, which was the key to his successful investment.

Maybe everyone will say: 10 times leverage gambling behavior is meaningful? Don't confuse people with children! Liang felt that this was not necessarily a gamble: the BOC convertible bonds he invested in were AAA-rated convertible bonds with the highest credit rating issued by China Bank, a large state-owned bank, and would definitely repay the principal and interest. He borrowed 6,543,800,000 yuan, with a maximum loss of 680,000 yuan and an upward potential gain of 5,654,380,000 yuan. At that time, the blue-chip bear market was at the bottom of many years, and convertible bonds fell to the bottom of history. The bull market will eventually come, and the rise of BOC convertible bonds is a high probability event. The question is: is it a gamble to make a business with a high probability of earning 500-100000 and a low probability of losing 680000 in the worst case?

Let's talk about the last example first: the legendary story of a stock investment god.

This great god is the monitor of his good friend's college classmates. In 2009, he began to invest in stocks with a principal of more than 100,000 yuan. It took him nine years to become 20 million yuan. His success comes down to several points: insisting on the style of value investment, only buying stocks with low valuation, optimizing stock concentration, adding leverage in time, and selling when the bull market bubble is huge. In the process from 100,000 yuan to 20 million yuan, the key step is to purchase low-priced China buildings through financing, and the assets have changed from 700,000 yuan to 7 million yuan, doubling10 times, achieving a qualitative leap. Other stocks he has invested in include China Ping An and Gree Electric. It can be seen that the stocks he chose are all large-cap stocks and blue-chip stocks, which are not complicated at all or novel. They are all around us, which is completely different from the atmosphere that the whole market likes to speculate on small-cap stocks from 20 12 to 20 15. The biggest opportunity he seized was not far away, at 20 14, the bottom of the last bear market.

From his success, Liang got this revelation:

1, buy stocks with low valuation;

2. Good stocks are around, and choose stocks with high transparency that you really know;

3. Buy boldly at the bottom of the market.

4. Use the lever at the bottom.

5, do not do short-term, large band.

Fourth,

Zhou Jintao's Compaq Theory made A Liang have a subversive understanding of the significance and methods of financial management. But at the same time, Liang combined classic cases with his own experience, and improved the theory of investment and financial management. The core points are as follows:

1, the wealth of life depends not on wages, but on the investment of asset prices. The value created by investment is highly flexible and can be far greater than the value created by work. The value that work can create has low elasticity and obvious ceiling. The height of the ceiling depends on a person's IQ, EQ and resources. These factors are difficult to change, or the marginal output of change is limited. For example, the annual income can be 200,000-400,000 through hard work, and it is difficult to go up again. But can a change of 200,000 to 400,000 turn you from an ordinary class to a middle class? I don't think so. For most people, work can help you achieve a well-off life, but no matter how hard you work, it can't help you become a middle class. In order to realize the qualitative change of financial situation, we must rely on investment.

A person's life is full of investment opportunities, more than three times. This is different from Zhou Jintao's point of view. Liang agrees with him. In Compaq's cycle theory, there are three opportunities in life, because it is analyzed from a special macro cycle, but in addition, if we master the right methods, there are far more than three opportunities. First of all, asset categories can be highly elastic assets with regular price fluctuations, such as real estate, stocks, convertible bonds, bulk commodities and other alternative assets.

Second, the bull and bear cycles in different markets are different, and if they are not synchronized, there will be a grand occasion when you sing and I come on stage. If you miss an opportunity, another opportunity will come soon. For example, in the China stock market, there have been four big opportunities in the past 28 years, almost once every five years on average, so there are six big opportunities to grasp in a 30-year career. Considering the bull market opportunities and other assets in developed countries, there are more opportunities. Of course, the definition of opportunities here may be related to different standards. In Zhou Jintao's eyes, the opportunity may be 10 times that of 10 years. I think that 10 years is five times that of three years, which is already a great opportunity.

As important as the right direction is the degree of investment. You bought Tencent at 20 1 1, and now it has gone up by 10 times, which is the right direction. But if the amount you buy is RMB 654.38+00,000, then the eggs are useless. So the amount of principal investment directly determines your success. Here's the big chance. You must bet heavily. At the very least, throw away all the investable funds in your hand instead of throwing them around, which will only discount your chances. In the above article, I gave an example of buying a house in Beijing, not only with my own money, but also with the bank's money; For example, the convertible bonds of China Bank borrowed a leverage of 10, and used other people's money to enlarge the principal multiple when buying a building in China. Remember this simple formula: income = principal * rate of return.

4. Risk management is the core skill. Borrowing money to invest is risky. In most cases, don't do such a stupid thing. 20 15, how many people didn't have a chance to be locked up after the explosion? How many people jumped off buildings because of the explosions of two companies? So: how to get leverage? How to control the risk of using leverage? How to control the risk of investment? This may be more difficult than choosing the investment target, which needs a special article to discuss.

5. The fluctuation of asset price has its periodicity and regularity. In Zhou Jintao's view, in the 60-year cycle, commodities are the most profitable industries. The real estate cycle is once every 20 years, but the stock is not a long-term problem and fluctuates at any time, so it cannot be clearly defined in the cycle. At this point, Liang He has different views. On the bright side, the best asset to grasp the fluctuation law is convertible bonds, followed by stocks and then real estate. The buying time of convertible bonds can be simply defined by a yield to maturity, and the buying and selling time of stocks can be grasped by valuation. Of course, any valuation is based on fundamentals, and the significance of independent valuation will be greatly reduced. Therefore, valuation based on fundamentals is a good core judgment basis. In addition to A-shares, the century-old stock market in the United States and other stock markets around the world can use valuation indicators as the core basis for trading. Valuation is the common language of the global stock market, because the stock market always cycles between undervaluation and overvaluation, and this law has never changed.

6. Seeing this, it is estimated that many people will raise objections: "These examples you mentioned are wonderful, but they are of no reference significance to ordinary investors. This is the survivor bias. The truth is that 654.38+00000 people made similar attempts, but only 654.38+00000 people succeeded. No one cares about the 990,000 people who failed, but everyone cares about these obviously successful people. For example, these three examples are specifically aimed at the above three successful cases. In fact, they may just be gambling, just gambling right, and there is no way for everyone to master and successfully use it. " This idea is completely correct. This is the reality: most people who especially want to achieve financial freedom through investment will end in failure, not only will they not get a return, but they will also lose the fruits of their labor.

The reason is that two problems are difficult to solve:

First, investment is a practical activity. The theory of investment is not difficult to learn. Those with a little stronger learning ability can learn the core theories and methods of investment in a few days. However, investment practice and learning theory are completely different things, just like watching videos, learning to fight, and losing your helmet when you go to the battlefield. When it comes to investing, your mood will be affected by the market, panic when you fall, and greed when you rise. This is normal, because people are emotional animals, and emotional fluctuations caused by market ups and downs are natural reactions. And investment is against human nature, which requires strong anti-emotional management ability.

Second, greed is the greatest enemy. After learning the investment method, many people soon learned how to bargain-hunting and bargain-hunting. But when it came to the bull market, it also began to fight crazily, and the final result was to go back and forth from where. Why? Because at that time, people's greed has been aroused and become insatiable, and the result must be to make money and then spit it out.

There is a saying: you have never been popular, you don't understand. It is really like this: if people are not crazy, it may just be that the environment has not been stimulated. The real environmental conditions are met, and I don't even know myself when I am crazy. Therefore, for those who have not experienced a bleak bear market and a crazy bull market, there is a great probability that they are untrustworthy. Experience is extremely valuable in this market. Inexperience means that you haven't learned all the martial arts, so it's highly unlikely. After all, few people teach themselves without a teacher. Experience at least once in a bull market and a bear market is considered to meet the basic requirements, and experience is the best teacher. Therefore, even though there are many experienced investors in the market who have taught many correct investment methods, only a few people can really master them. On the other hand, I think: if everyone masters the method and takes action, the whole country will go to Beijing to buy a house in 2008, and 20 14 will bargain for A shares, then the price will skyrocket instantly, and how much profit will there be? Therefore, logically speaking, this will never change: financial freedom gained by investing in asset prices belongs to only a few people.

Since it is so difficult to invest and manage your desires, most people should adopt a relatively conservative strategy:

First, it is better to buy stocks directly than to buy funds, and it is better to entrust the trust to fund managers with rich investment experience than to entrust them to themselves;

Second, it is better to buy convertible bonds than to buy stock assets. The risk of convertible bonds is quantifiable and controllable, which is much greater than the certainty of stocks.

Third, with the help of financial advisers with rich investment experience, the correctness of the choice is enhanced. It is not easy to rely on a good investment manager. What is a good fund manager has a thousand answers. Therefore, instead of thinking for yourself, it is better to ask a professional old driver like Liang.

7. Now, you should have understood what I mean:

1, investment can be really important and can change your life. Don't think it doesn't matter;

2. The investment is regular and the market is full of opportunities;

3, investment is really difficult, easy to fall into the pit. Don't trust your own judgment too much. People who die early in the stock market are particularly confident. Without five years 10 experience, why do you believe in yourself? For beginners, standing on the shoulders of giants is a more reasonable strategy.

In addition to these, Liang also wants to say an important meaning: the current A-share market is a great opportunity in your life. Don't regret it until you lose it. We ended today's exchange with a quote from Zhou Jintao: "In your 60-year-old life, you participated in economic life for 30 years. In 30 years, Kangbo has only given you three wealth opportunities, regardless of your subjective wishes. " "People over 40 had their first chance in life in 2008. If you had bought stocks and houses, your life would have been very successful. The last chance in life before 2008 was 1999, and not many people aged 40 seized that opportunity, so 2008 was the first chance. The second chance is in 19 years, and the last time is about 30 years. If you can catch it once, you can become a middle class. This is why life depends on Kangbo to make a fortune. " This is my painstaking work. Welcome to share it with more people and express your confusion in the message area.