The first stage: 65438+1July 2, 1997, Thailand announced that it would abandon the fixed exchange rate system and implement a floating exchange rate system, which triggered a financial storm sweeping Southeast Asia. On the same day, the exchange rate of Thai baht against the US dollar fell by 17%, and financial markets such as foreign exchange were in chaos. Under the influence of the fluctuation of Thai baht, Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit have become the targets of international speculators. In August, Malaysia gave up its efforts to defend Ringgit. The Singapore dollar, which has been strong, has also been hit. Although Indonesia is the latest country to be "infected", it is the most seriously affected. 10 year 10 in late October, international speculators moved to Hong Kong, an international financial center, aiming at Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system. Taiwan Province authorities suddenly abandoned the exchange rate of the new Taiwan dollar, depreciating by 3.46% a day, which increased the pressure on the Hong Kong dollar and Hong Kong stock markets. 1October 23rd 10, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1 2 1 1.47 points; On the 28th, it fell 1, 626,5438+0.80 points and fell below the 9000-point mark. Faced with fierce attacks from international financial speculators, the Hong Kong SAR Government reiterated that it would not change the current exchange rate system, and the Hang Seng Index rose to 10000. Then, 1 1 in mid-June, a financial storm broke out in South Korea in East Asia. 17 In June, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the US dollar fell to a record 1 008: 1. 2 1, the South Korean government had to seek help from the International Monetary Fund, which temporarily controlled the crisis. However, on 65438+February 13, the exchange rate of Korean won against the US dollar fell to 1 737.60: 1. The Korean won crisis has also hit the Japanese financial industry, which has invested heavily in South Korea. 1997 a series of Japanese banks and securities companies went bankrupt in the second half of the year. As a result, the Southeast Asian financial crisis evolved into the Asian financial crisis.
The second stage: 1998, Indonesia's financial turmoil resumed. In the face of the worst economic recession in history, the prescription prescribed by the International Monetary Fund for Indonesia failed to achieve the expected results. On February 1 1, the Indonesian government announced the implementation of the linked exchange rate system with a fixed exchange rate between the Indonesian rupiah and the US dollar to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah. This move was unanimously opposed by the International Monetary Fund, the United States and Western Europe. The International Monetary Fund threatened to withdraw its aid to Indonesia. Indonesia is in a political and economic crisis. On February 6/kloc-0, the exchange rate of the Indonesian rupiah against the US dollar fell below 10000: 1. Affected by this, the Southeast Asian currency market once again set off waves, with the Singapore dollar, Malaysian dollar, Thai baht and Philippine peso falling one after another. It was not until April 8 that Indonesia and the International Monetary Fund reached an agreement on a new economic reform plan that Southeast Asian currency markets were temporarily calm. 1997 The financial crisis in Southeast Asia put the Japanese economy, which is closely related to it, into trouble. The exchange rate of Japanese yen dropped from 1 15 at the end of June 1997 to 1 USD at the beginning of April 1998. In May and June, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen fell all the way, once approaching the mark of 150 yen 1 US dollar. With the sharp depreciation of the yen, the international financial situation is more uncertain and the Asian financial crisis continues to deepen.
The third stage: 65438+1At the beginning of August, 1998, international speculators launched a new round of attacks on Hong Kong in the face of the turmoil in the American stock market and the continuous decline of the yen exchange rate. The Hang Seng Index has dropped to over 6 600 points. The Hong Kong SAR Government retaliated, and the HKMA used the Exchange Fund to enter the stock market and futures market, absorbing Hong Kong dollars sold by international speculators and stabilizing the foreign exchange market at the level of 7.75 Hong Kong dollars 1 US dollar. After nearly a month of hard work, international speculators suffered heavy losses and failed to realize their attempt to use Hong Kong as a "super ATM" again. While international speculators lost in Hong Kong, they lost in Russia. 17 On August 7th, the Russian central bank announced that it would expand the floating range of the ruble against the US dollar to 6.0 ~ 9.5: 1 during the year, and postpone the repayment of foreign debts and government bonds. On September 2, the ruble depreciated by 70%. This led to a sharp drop in the Russian stock market and foreign exchange market, which triggered a financial crisis and even an economic and political crisis. The sudden change of Russian policy has greatly hurt international speculators who have invested huge amounts of money in Russian stock market, and has led to the overall violent fluctuations in the foreign exchange markets of American and European stock markets. If the Asian financial crisis was still regional before this, then the outbreak of the Russian financial crisis shows that the Asian financial crisis has gone beyond the regional scope and has global significance. By the end of 1998, the Russian economy was still in trouble. 1999, the financial crisis is over.
There are many reasons for the financial crisis from 65438 to 0997. Chinese scholars generally believe that it can be divided into direct trigger factors, internal basic factors and world economic factors.
The direct trigger factors include: (1) the impact of hot money in the international financial market. At present, there are about $7 trillion of international capital flowing around the world. Once international speculators find out which country or region is profitable, they will immediately attack the currency of that country or region through speculation to make huge profits in the short term. (2) Some Asian countries have improper foreign exchange policies. In order to attract foreign investment, they maintain a fixed exchange rate on the one hand and expand financial liberalization on the other, which provides opportunities for international speculators. For example, Thailand deregulated the capital market at 1992 before the financial system was straightened out, which made the short-term capital flow unimpeded and provided conditions for foreign speculators to speculate on the Thai baht. (3) In order to maintain a fixed exchange rate system, these countries have used foreign exchange reserves for a long time to make up for their deficits, resulting in an increase in foreign debt. (4) The foreign debt structure of these countries is unreasonable. In the case of more short-term and medium-term debts, once the outflow of foreign capital exceeds the inflow of foreign capital, and the domestic foreign exchange reserves are insufficient to make up for it, the devaluation of the country's currency is inevitable.
Internal basic factors include: (1) the high growth rate of overdraft economy and the expansion of non-performing assets. Maintaining a high economic growth rate is the common aspiration of developing countries. When the conditions for rapid growth become insufficient, in order to maintain the speed, these countries turn to foreign debt to maintain economic growth. However, due to the poor economic development, by the mid-1990s, some Asian countries were unable to repay their debts. In southeast Asian countries, the bubble blown by real estate only brought bad debts and bad debts of bank loans; As for South Korea, because it is too easy for large enterprises to obtain funds from banks, once the business conditions of enterprises are not good, the non-performing assets will expand immediately. The existence of a large number of non-performing assets in turn affects the confidence of investors. (2) The market system is immature. First, the government excessively interferes with the allocation of resources, especially the loan investment and projects in the financial system; The other is that the financial system, especially the supervision system, is not perfect. (3) The defect of "export substitution" mode. The "export substitution" model is an important reason for the economic success of many Asian countries. However, this model also has three shortcomings: first, when the economy develops to a certain stage, the production cost will increase and the export will be restrained, resulting in the imbalance of international payments in these countries; Second, when this export-oriented strategy becomes the development strategy of many countries, it will form mutual extrusion; Third, the gradual progress of products is a necessary condition for continuing to implement export substitution, and it is impossible to maintain competitiveness simply by relying on the cheap advantages of resources. These countries in Asia have not solved the above problems after achieving rapid growth.
World economic factors mainly include: (1) the negative impact of economic globalization. Economic globalization makes the economic ties of countries around the world closer and closer, but its negative effects can not be ignored, such as the intensification of interest conflicts between nation-States, the enhancement of capital mobility, and the difficulty in preventing crises. (2) Unreasonable international division of labor, trade and monetary system are unfavorable to third world countries. In the field of production, high-tech products and high-tech itself are still produced in developed countries, and the technical content of products is gradually declining to underdeveloped countries. Least developed countries can only do assembly work and produce primary products. In the field of exchange, developed countries can buy primary products at low prices and monopolize high prices to promote their own products. In the field of international finance and currency, the whole global financial system and system is also beneficial to financial powers.
The financial crisis has a far-reaching impact, exposing some deep-seated problems behind the rapid economic development of some Asian countries. In this sense, it is not only a bad thing, but also a good thing, which provides opportunities for developing countries in Asia to deepen reform, adjust industrial structure and improve macro-management. Because of the arduous task of reform and adjustment, it will take some time for these countries to fully restore their economies. However, the basic factors of economic growth in developing countries in Asia still exist. After overcoming internal and external difficulties, there is great hope for the improvement and further development of the Asian economic situation.
1997 1998, the Asian financial crisis, is another major event that has a far-reaching impact on the world economy after the world economic crisis in the 1930s. This financial crisis reflects that there are serious defects in the financial systems of all countries in the world, including many mature financial systems and economic operation modes that people think are selected through historical development. This financial crisis has exposed many problems, which need to be reflected. This financial crisis has brought us many new topics and raised the issue of establishing new financial laws and organizational forms. This book attempts to do research in this field. The central issue of this book is how to get rid of the century-old economic problems brought about by the money supply system formed by various countries and the debt derivative mechanism formed between enterprises under the new situation, when the paper money standard system has not been realized after the monetary system reform at the beginning of this century, including: (1) corporate debt burden, bank bad debts, frequent financial and debt crises; (2) Excessive social money supply, heavy banking business and increased difficulty in macro-control; (3) The government has difficulty in tax collection, and the financial crisis is intertwined with the financial crisis; (4) Inflation and social economy are intertwined, bubble economy occurs from time to time, economic fluctuations are frequent, and economic growth is often hindered; (5) Lack of enterprise funds brings operational difficulties, increases the bankruptcy rate and frequent enterprise merger activities, reduces the stability of enterprises, increases unemployment, and is not conducive to economic growth and social stability. (6) Unequal international monetary relations have brought a heavy burden to most countries in the world and caused many international economic problems. The deepest reason for the above problems is that the monetary system is not perfect and the new mechanism of inter-enterprise trading activities under the condition of socialized mass production is not fully understood. The idea of this book is to establish the authoritative intermediary system of enterprise transaction settlement-the national enterprise transaction intermediary settlement system, liberate the debt chain between enterprises, eliminate the bad debt base between enterprises and banks, thus avoiding the occurrence of debt and financial crisis, reducing the harm of inflation and bubble economy, and promoting stable economic growth. In this process of innovation, national tax revenue and fiscal expenditure will also be innovated to reduce the occurrence of fiscal deficit. At the same time, it will also produce the innovation of enterprise system, reduce the bankruptcy and merger of enterprises and enhance the stability of enterprises. In addition, it will also innovate international settlement methods and reform the use of international currency. This process is not a simple treatment of economic problems, but a correction of serious defects in the paper money system, an innovation in the money supply and circulation system, and a major change in the financial system. Moreover, this change has brought many adjustments to the economic operation mechanism.
The outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, although there are specific internal factors in each country: economy.
The economy continues to overheat, the economic bubble expands, and the blindness of introducing foreign capital-too many short-term foreign debts and an unhealthy banking system.
The crisis also has its external causes, such as collusion between banks and enterprises, large debts of enterprises, "bad" behavior of international speculators,
However, people should go further and find out the essential factors of the crisis-modern financial economy and economic integrity.
Spheroidization trend.
Liu believes that the internal content of the financial crisis is the capitalist economic crisis, world 1929- 1933.
The severe financial crisis led to a huge economic panic. Mexican financial crisis 1994 and eastern financial crisis 1997.
The subprime mortgage crisis first occurred in the capitalist world. It can be seen that the financial crisis has its institutional roots and is a capitalist crisis.
Machine. The possibility of financial crisis exists in the inherent spontaneous monetary credit mechanism of market economy. Once financial activities
Out of control, the contradiction between money and capital lending intensified, and the financial crisis appeared. Based on highly developed financial activities
The characteristic modern market economy itself is a high-risk economy, which contains the possibility of financial crisis.
Economic globalization and integration is another major feature of the contemporary world economy. Economic globalization is a supermarket economy.
The highest form of national boundary development. After World War II, with the further development of commodity relations between countries, countries are more interdependent in economy.
Dependence, frequent international flows of goods, services, capital, technology and knowledge, and the trend of economic globalization.
A little more vivid. The globalization of financial activities is a leap in the new allocation of resources in the contemporary world and economically backward countries and regions.
However, with the explosive development of international credit and investment, its internal contradictions deepened and the financial crisis broke out.
It will inevitably break out in the weakest link of imperfect system.
To sum up, the modern market economy not only has a crisis arising from overproduction and insufficient demand, but also
There are also uncontrolled financial credit behavior, excessive use of new financial instruments and excessive speculation in the capital market.
Crisis. In the capitalist world, the crisis of this market operation mechanism is catalyzed and aggravated by the basic system.
Financial crisis is inevitable not only in capitalist countries, but also in the socialist market economy system.
The imperfect financial system and out-of-control financial activities are the endogenous factors of the financial crisis. Because of this, at present in our country
In the system transformation, people should attach great importance to and earnestly do a good job in the construction of a market economic system regulated by the government, especially
We should vigorously improve the financial system and enhance our ability to guard against endogenous and exogenous financial crises.
After the outbreak of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, people have conducted extensive and in-depth discussions on the causes of the crisis.
Pointing out the internal and external causes of the crisis, Liu further pointed out the deep-seated reason, namely modernity.
The monetary and credit mechanism led to the outbreak of the crisis. As long as the modern market economy exists, monetary credit exists in the market economy
Mechanism may lead to financial crisis. However, it only happens in countries with imperfect systems and the weakest countries.
This is no exception in socialist market economy countries. Even so, we can still improve the financial system.
Systematic prevention of financial crisis, Liu He pointed out the ways to prevent financial crisis.