It can be seen that the financial crisis in China is similar to that in Europe, that is, joint-stock companies are used to speculate at will, banks participate in shares, and then add fuel to the fire.
From June 65438 to June 0997, a financial crisis broke out in Asia, and the development process of this crisis was very complicated. By the end of 1998, it can be roughly divided into three stages: June 1997 to February12; 1998 1 month to1998 July; 1998 July to the end of the year.
The first stage: 65438+1July 2, 1997, Thailand announced that it would abandon the fixed exchange rate system and implement a floating exchange rate system, which triggered a financial storm sweeping Southeast Asia. On the same day, the exchange rate of Thai baht against the US dollar fell by 17%, and financial markets such as foreign exchange were in chaos. Under the influence of the fluctuation of Thai baht, Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit have become the targets of international speculators. In August, Malaysia gave up its efforts to defend Ringgit. The Singapore dollar, which has been strong, has also been hit. Although Indonesia is the latest country to be "infected", it is the most seriously affected. 10 year 10 in late October, international speculators moved to Hong Kong, an international financial center, aiming at Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system. Taiwan Province authorities suddenly abandoned the exchange rate of the new Taiwan dollar, depreciating by 3.46% a day, which increased the pressure on the Hong Kong dollar and Hong Kong stock markets. 1October 23rd 10, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1 2 1 1.47 points; On the 28th, it fell 1, 626,5438+0.80 points and fell below the 9000-point mark. Faced with fierce attacks from international financial speculators, the Hong Kong SAR Government reiterated that it would not change the current exchange rate system, and the Hang Seng Index rose to 10000. Then, 1 1 in mid-June, a financial storm broke out in South Korea in East Asia. 17 In June, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the US dollar fell to a record 1 008: 1. 2 1, the South Korean government had to seek help from the International Monetary Fund, which temporarily controlled the crisis. However, on 65438+February 13, the exchange rate of Korean won against the US dollar fell to 1 737.60: 1. The Korean won crisis has also hit the Japanese financial industry, which has invested heavily in South Korea. 1997 a series of Japanese banks and securities companies went bankrupt in the second half of the year. As a result, the Southeast Asian financial crisis evolved into the Asian financial crisis.
The second stage: 1998, Indonesia's financial turmoil resumed. In the face of the worst economic recession in history, the prescription prescribed by the International Monetary Fund for Indonesia failed to achieve the expected results. On February 1 1, the Indonesian government announced the implementation of the linked exchange rate system with a fixed exchange rate between the Indonesian rupiah and the US dollar to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah. This move was unanimously opposed by the International Monetary Fund, the United States and Western Europe. The International Monetary Fund threatened to withdraw its aid to Indonesia. Indonesia is in a political and economic crisis. On February 6/kloc-0, the exchange rate of the Indonesian rupiah against the US dollar fell below 10000: 1. Affected by this, the Southeast Asian currency market once again set off waves, with the Singapore dollar, Malaysian dollar, Thai baht and Philippine peso falling one after another. It was not until April 8 that Indonesia and the International Monetary Fund reached an agreement on a new economic reform plan that Southeast Asian currency markets were temporarily calm. 1997 The financial crisis in Southeast Asia put the Japanese economy, which is closely related to it, into trouble. The exchange rate of Japanese yen dropped from 1 15 at the end of June 1997 to 1 USD at the beginning of April 1998. In May and June, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen fell all the way, once approaching the mark of 150 yen 1 US dollar. With the sharp depreciation of the yen, the international financial situation is more uncertain and the Asian financial crisis continues to deepen.
The third stage: 65438+1At the beginning of August, 1998, international speculators launched a new round of attacks on Hong Kong in the face of the turmoil in the American stock market and the continuous decline of the yen exchange rate. The Hang Seng Index has dropped to over 6 600 points. The Hong Kong SAR Government retaliated, and the HKMA used the Exchange Fund to enter the stock market and futures market, absorbing Hong Kong dollars sold by international speculators and stabilizing the foreign exchange market at the level of 7.75 Hong Kong dollars 1 US dollar. After nearly a month of hard work, international speculators suffered heavy losses and failed to realize their attempt to use Hong Kong as a "super ATM" again. While international speculators lost in Hong Kong, they lost in Russia. 17 On August 7th, the Russian central bank announced that it would expand the floating range of the ruble against the US dollar to 6.0 ~ 9.5: 1 during the year, and postpone the repayment of foreign debts and government bonds. On September 2, the ruble depreciated by 70%. This led to a sharp drop in the Russian stock market and foreign exchange market, which triggered a financial crisis and even an economic and political crisis. The sudden change of Russian policy has greatly hurt international speculators who have invested huge amounts of money in Russian stock market, and has led to the overall violent fluctuations in the foreign exchange markets of American and European stock markets. If the Asian financial crisis was still regional before this, then the outbreak of the Russian financial crisis shows that the Asian financial crisis has gone beyond the regional scope and has global significance. By the end of 1998, the Russian economy was still in trouble. 1999, the financial crisis is over.
There are many reasons for the financial crisis from 65438 to 0997. Chinese scholars generally believe that it can be divided into direct trigger factors, internal basic factors and world economic factors.
The direct trigger factors include: (1) the impact of hot money in the international financial market. At present, there are about $7 trillion of international capital flowing around the world. Once international speculators find out which country or region is profitable, they will immediately attack the currency of that country or region through speculation to make huge profits in the short term. (2) Some Asian countries have improper foreign exchange policies. In order to attract foreign investment, they maintain a fixed exchange rate on the one hand and expand financial liberalization on the other, which provides opportunities for international speculators. For example, Thailand deregulated the capital market at 1992 before the financial system was straightened out, which made the short-term capital flow unimpeded and provided conditions for foreign speculators to speculate on the Thai baht. (3) In order to maintain a fixed exchange rate system, these countries have used foreign exchange reserves for a long time to make up for their deficits, resulting in an increase in foreign debt. (4) The foreign debt structure of these countries is unreasonable. In the case of more short-term and medium-term debts, once the outflow of foreign capital exceeds the inflow of foreign capital, and the domestic foreign exchange reserves are insufficient to make up for it, the devaluation of the country's currency is inevitable.
Internal basic factors include: (1) the high growth rate of overdraft economy and the expansion of non-performing assets. Maintaining a high economic growth rate is the common aspiration of developing countries. When the conditions for rapid growth become insufficient, in order to maintain the speed, these countries turn to foreign debt to maintain economic growth. However, due to the poor economic development, by the mid-1990s, some Asian countries were unable to repay their debts. In southeast Asian countries, the bubble blown by real estate only brought bad debts and bad debts of bank loans; As for South Korea, because it is too easy for large enterprises to obtain funds from banks, once the business conditions of enterprises are not good, the non-performing assets will expand immediately. The existence of a large number of non-performing assets in turn affects the confidence of investors. (2) The market system is immature. First, the government excessively interferes with the allocation of resources, especially the loan investment and projects in the financial system; The other is that the financial system, especially the supervision system, is not perfect. (3) The defect of "export substitution" mode. The "export substitution" model is an important reason for the economic success of many Asian countries. However, this model also has three shortcomings: first, when the economy develops to a certain stage, the production cost will increase and the export will be restrained, resulting in the imbalance of international payments in these countries; Second, when this export-oriented strategy becomes the development strategy of many countries, it will form mutual extrusion; Third, the gradual progress of products is a necessary condition for continuing to implement export substitution, and it is impossible to maintain competitiveness simply by relying on the cheap advantages of resources. These countries in Asia have not solved the above problems after achieving rapid growth.
World economic factors mainly include: (1) the negative impact of economic globalization. Economic globalization makes the economic ties of countries around the world closer and closer, but its negative effects can not be ignored, such as the intensification of interest conflicts between nation-States, the enhancement of capital mobility, and the difficulty in preventing crises. (2) Unreasonable international division of labor, trade and monetary system are unfavorable to third world countries. In the field of production, high-tech products and high-tech itself are still produced by developed countries, and the technical content of products is gradually declining to underdeveloped countries. Least developed countries can only do assembly work and produce primary products. In the field of exchange, developed countries can buy primary products at low prices and monopolize high prices to promote their own products. In the field of international finance and currency, the whole global financial system and system is also beneficial to financial powers.
The financial crisis has a far-reaching impact, exposing some deep-seated problems behind the rapid economic development of some Asian countries. In this sense, it is not only a bad thing, but also a good thing, which provides opportunities for developing countries in Asia to deepen reform, adjust industrial structure and improve macro-management. Because of the arduous task of reform and adjustment, it will take some time for these countries to fully restore their economies. However, the basic factors of economic growth in developing countries in Asia still exist. After overcoming internal and external difficulties, there is great hope for the improvement and further development of the Asian economic situation.
1997 1998, the Asian financial crisis, is another major event that has a far-reaching impact on the world economy after the world economic crisis in the 1930s. This financial crisis reflects that there are serious defects in the financial systems of all countries in the world, including many mature financial systems and economic operation modes that people think are selected through historical development. This financial crisis has exposed many problems, which need to be reflected. This financial crisis has brought us many new topics and raised the issue of establishing new financial laws and organizational forms. This book attempts to do research in this field. The central issue of this book is how to get rid of the century-old economic problems brought about by the money supply system formed by various countries and the debt derivative mechanism formed between enterprises under the new situation, when the paper money standard system has not been realized after the monetary system reform at the beginning of this century, including: (1) corporate debt burden, bank bad debts, frequent financial and debt crises; (2) Excessive social money supply, heavy banking business and increased difficulty in macro-control; (3) The government has difficulty in tax collection, and the financial crisis is intertwined with the financial crisis; (4) Inflation and social economy are intertwined, bubble economy occurs from time to time, economic fluctuations are frequent, and economic growth is often hindered; (5) Lack of enterprise funds brings operational difficulties, increases the bankruptcy rate and frequent enterprise merger activities, reduces the stability of enterprises, increases unemployment, and is not conducive to economic growth and social stability. (6) Unequal international monetary relations have brought a heavy burden to most countries in the world and caused many international economic problems. The deepest reason for the above problems is that the monetary system is not perfect and the new mechanism of inter-enterprise trading activities under the condition of socialized mass production is not fully understood. The idea of this book is to establish the authoritative intermediary system of enterprise transaction settlement-the national enterprise transaction intermediary settlement system, liberate the debt chain between enterprises, eliminate the bad debt base between enterprises and banks, thus avoiding the occurrence of debt and financial crisis, reducing the harm of inflation and bubble economy, and promoting stable economic growth. In this process of innovation, national tax revenue and fiscal expenditure will also be innovated to reduce the occurrence of fiscal deficit. At the same time, it will also produce the innovation of enterprise system, reduce the bankruptcy and merger of enterprises and enhance the stability of enterprises. In addition, it will also innovate international settlement methods and reform the use of international currency. This process is not a simple treatment of economic problems, but a correction of serious defects in the paper money system, an innovation in the money supply and circulation system, and a major change in the financial system. Moreover, this change has brought many adjustments to the economic operation mechanism.
First of all, it briefly analyzes the global financial crisis in 2008.
(1) The global financial crisis is mainly caused by the real estate bubble in the United States and the leverage of financial derivatives. The reason for this is the following：
1, the Fed's long-term low interest rate policy has caused the bubble of fixed assets investment and the false prosperity of the economy;
2. The weak financial supervision of derivatives and credit rating in the United States has led to the economic reappearance similar to the network bubble, which has deeply affected all countries in the world;
3. The United States underestimated the harm of the subprime mortgage crisis and failed to correct it in time and provide necessary support in the early stage, resulting in a situation that is difficult to clean up now;
(2) The consequences of the American financial crisis:
1, causing the decline of the real economy in the United States and even the world, and many seemingly powerful countries came to the brink of bankruptcy overnight;
2. The impact of this financial crisis is deeper and wider than the economic crisis of 1929-1933, because the current global economic integration has amplified the depth and breadth of the crisis;
(3) Forecast of American and global economic trends:
1. Although all countries in the world have vowed to unite to rescue the market and put forward an astronomical rescue plan, whether it is effective or not remains to be observed in the next few months. Moreover, the financial nationalization caused by the bailout, the source of funds needed for the bailout and its subsequent impact, the appropriateness of the bailout only for financial liquidity, and the future "bailout" of the real economy (such as the automobile industry) are all unknown.
2. Even if the global rescue is successful, it will take a long time, and a long-term economic recession is inevitable.
Second, the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008 on China's economy.
1. Because the capital account of China's balance of payments has not been fully opened, the scale of asset securitization is still in its infancy, and China has a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, these factors have protected China from the severe impact of this financial crisis;
2. However, the actual loss of China's financial assets in the United States is also expected to be huge, and the specific figures need to be tested and digested in the future; (For example, CIC's investment in Morgan Stanley, Blackstone and Monetary Fund has suffered heavy losses, and the losses of subprime loans and Lehman bonds held by major banks will also be huge, as can be seen from Ping An's huge investment losses of 90%)
3. Although China has not suffered a serious financial crisis, the global financial crisis and economic recession have also had a serious impact on China. The globalization of the global economy, the high degree of international division of labor, and China's long-term external economic development model have determined that China can no longer stand out. As the saying goes, "under the nest, there are no eggs left!"
The crisis of the world giants is beyond their own digestion. For example, the $700 billion bailout fund will definitely not pay the bill itself, and China is bound to become the last payer, just a matter of how much money;
Although China has taken a series of measures to try to solve the economic impact caused by insufficient external demand by starting strong domestic demand, it is too late. Can the long-term external demand-driven economy change in the short term? Moreover, China is facing the triple threat of inflation, deflation and stagflation, which will inevitably make it more difficult for China to formulate policies, so it is only the lesser of the two evils. But now consumers' psychological expectations have changed. Even if interest rates are cut continuously, it will be difficult to stimulate domestic demand in the short term, and economic slowdown or even short-term recession may occur.
Third, the impact of the global financial crisis and economic recession on the China stock market.
1. The direct impact of the global financial crisis is aimed at listed companies that rely heavily on exports and financial institutions that invest heavily overseas. This part of the loss cannot be completely predicted at present, and the final loss figure will also be astronomical. Moreover, the domino effect of the collapse of export-oriented enterprises will also be launched after the collapse of Hejun Group, and more export-oriented enterprises will inevitably die;
2. Although the banking industry was directly impacted by the financial crisis, due to the strict financial control in China, the losses were relatively small and the wading was not deep. In the medium and long term, China is expected to continue to cut interest rates, but due to changes in consumers' psychological expectations, more funds will temporarily flow back to banks in the short term, and the follow-up depends on how banks respond.
The winter of the real estate industry has just begun. In the past few years, due to overheated investment in fixed assets, inflation and appreciation of RMB, a large number of bubbles have emerged in the real estate industry. After the bubble burst, some unfavorable factors appeared one after another, such as the unfair land distribution system within the system (a large number of landlords appeared in the peak period, and the land price rose rapidly), the rising speed of house prices far exceeded the rising speed of consumers' wages, and the continuous decline of the stock market locked in a large amount of funds (the property income of consumers shrank seriously). But it is gratifying that the asset securitization reform in the real estate industry is still in its infancy, thus avoiding the subprime mortgage crisis similar to that in the United States.
4. The steel industry is affected by the crisis, which shows that the steel price continues to fall and the production capacity decreases. But as far as China's steel industry is concerned, due to China's expectation of stimulating domestic demand, it is bound to provide more public goods, and at the risk of falling into inflation again, * * * will also relax its investment in fixed assets. For the steel and machinery manufacturing industry, it is optimistic in the medium term, at least it will not fall seriously;
5. The impact of oil, coal and other energy industries will be long-term, manifested in the fact that energy prices will continue to fall (due to reduced demand) and the future risks will be at a medium level. It is also possible that the rapid start-up of domestic demand in China will not lead to the rapid decline of energy prices, and now most areas of China have entered the winter heating period, and the demand for energy in the next six months is stable and sustainable.
6. The precious metals and luxury goods industries such as gold are not optimistic in the medium term. The reason is that the price of gold has overdrawn its value preservation in the past, and the winter of gold and its luxury goods industry is coming soon. More funds will be withdrawn from this market, and consumers' purchases of physical objects will plummet;
Fourth, about rescuing the market.
1. Real estate industry: At present, the theory of saving the real estate industry is rampant. I think it is ridiculous to save the market at this time, which is a disguised transfer of interests and a waste of taxpayers' money.
⑴ Judging from the formation factors of real estate this winter, it is the above-mentioned overheated investment in fixed assets, inflation and the appreciation of China's currency that have produced a large number of bubbles. In the process of bubble formation, the huge profits of the real estate industry are well known, and this part of the profits must be retired under the regulation of the market;
⑵ At present, house prices are still too high relative to consumers' wages, especially in the later period of small and medium-sized cities, the real estate prices have not dropped significantly, and the future of the real estate industry should be decided by the market;
(3) The impact of the financial crisis on the real estate industry is mainly reflected in the lack of demand, but this is precisely caused by high housing prices. China people have a serious "buying plot", and their potential purchasing power is huge, just because the house price is too high. Once house prices return to a reasonable level, a large amount of purchasing power will naturally revive the real estate industry, so there is no need to rescue the market.