The market price in spot copper, China in June 2005 was 5438+ 10/0/1.

1The domestic spot copper market price in October 1 1 is as follows: (unit: RMB/ton)

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Shanghai Stock Exchange monthly price, Yangtze River price, Huatong price, Guangdong price.

September 23, 36630 37260 37 170 37400

September 26th 36560 37240 37240 37400

September 27th 36790 37400 37380 37500

September 28th 36680 37300 37290 37400

September 29th 36650 37 130 37290 37300

65438+ 10/0 37960 38010 38000 38200

65438+1October1137980 38190 38200 38250

Strong breakthrough in copper and aluminum futures prices during the Spring Festival

(Date of Issue: 6 February 2006 15: 50: 5 1)

During the Spring Festival, copper and aluminum futures prices broke through strongly, closing at $5,020/ton and $2,632.50/ton respectively, and both copper and aluminum once again created price myths.

The week during the Spring Festival is a week in which international metal prices have broken through and risen, and it is also a week in which historical high prices have been constantly created. Copper price broke through the historical high of $4,755/ton, soared to $5,055/ton, and finally closed at $5,020/ton, showing the current strong trend of copper price. During this period, the price of aluminum also broke through, rising from $2,468/ton to $2,640/ton and closing at $2,632.50/ton.

At present, metal prices seem to have entered a crazy rising stage. For most investors, the metal market is even more unpredictable. After all, the foundation of "history will repeat itself" has been difficult to find a place to use in this state. So, how to grasp the market in this state? Let's start with the reasons for the market rise and look for various possibilities to predict the future price trend.

The global macroeconomic operation is stable.

We can see that the economic data of various countries are basically stable. In the United States, the ISM manufacturing index was still above 50 in June 5438+ 10, reaching 54.7. The consumer confidence index also reached a three-year high of 106.2. The economic growth of developed countries such as Europe and Japan has also remained stable. These constructions have become the biggest driving force for the sustained growth of metal consumption in the future. It has also fundamentally formed the driving force for the price increase of copper and aluminum.

High oil prices provide support.

The sharp fluctuation of crude oil price and the turmoil in the international money market have become the most important fundamental psychological factors for the rise of metal prices. During the Spring Festival, the price of crude oil fluctuated within the range of 65-70 USD/barrel, which further increased everyone's expectation of inflation.

On Tuesday, after the US dollar index announced that it would raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5%, it also began to rise to a certain extent. This further shows the uncertainty of the trend of the US dollar: the US economy is still stable, which brings optimism about the US dollar. However, the gradual arrival of the US interest rate hike cycle has made the market afraid to be further optimistic about the US dollar. The uncertainty of the international exchange rate trend is increasing (the uncertainty of the dollar trend), which in turn promotes the increase of capital investment in durable goods raw materials. That is, the macroeconomic situation and the turmoil in the monetary system are the biggest fundamental factors for the current round of metal price increases.

Specific to metal variety positions, the total amount of copper and aluminum positions increased further during the Spring Festival. The total position of LME copper futures increased from 2 1.8 thousand lots before the holiday to 233 thousand lots after the holiday, and the position of aluminum futures increased from about 450 thousand lots to 495 thousand lots. A large amount of funds entering the market has become the most direct driving force for the price increase of copper and aluminum during the Spring Festival.

The metal fundamentals are good

From the perspective of metal fundamentals, it is also beneficial, but it can't support the soaring price of copper and aluminum. The supply and demand of copper is still tight, and the spot premium is still around $90/ton, indicating that the spot market is partially tight, but its decline from the original $65,438+$0.30/ton also shows that its tension is shrinking. In terms of inventory, we still see that the inventory decreased by about 4,000 tons during the Spring Festival, and it is currently below 65,438+10,000 tons. This shows that copper supply and demand are not as bullish as prices. However, high crude oil prices will increase power consumption, which will accelerate the construction of urban power grids in developed and developing countries. Therefore, the emergence of substitute goods and high prices will reduce the impact on consumption, and the impact will be delayed, which is conducive to the short-term copper price trend.

The fundamentals of the aluminum market are similar. At present, LME inventory continues to increase. During the Spring Festival, the inventory increased by nearly 5,000 tons, reaching 710.3 million tons, the highest since 65,438+in February 2004. It shows that the supply and demand of aluminum market is not enough to be called shortage. However, the aluminum market has the potential of supply and demand transformation: due to high energy prices, the consumption of aluminum instead of copper increases and the output decreases. Moreover, high oil prices have great support for aluminum costs and can also push aluminum prices higher.

To sum up, the global macro-economy and the turmoil in the international money market have become the most fundamental reasons to promote the upward breakthrough of copper and aluminum prices. The intervention of capital is the most direct driving force, and the short-term potential bullish factors of fundamentals have basically supported the price of copper and aluminum, thus keeping the price in a stable upward trend.

However, the situation of fundamental supply and demand makes us pay attention to the danger that the change of macroeconomic situation will break the psychological system supported by price. This will have a devastating impact on the price, which deserves investors' attention.