I. RMB exchange rate arrangements before the reform and opening up
From the founding of New China to the reform and opening up, China's RMB exchange rate arrangement has roughly experienced three stages of development:
1. The first stage (1950 ~ 1952). Because RMB has no gold content, the initial exchange rate against western currencies was not determined by the gold parity of the two currencies, but based on the "price comparison method". In other words, in the early days of the People's Republic of China, the RMB exchange rate was based on the price level and was a relatively market-oriented exchange rate arrangement.
In the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China, due to factors such as hyperinflation left over from Kuomintang rule, China's prices rose steadily. For example, the wholesale price index in Shanghai was 100 in June of 1949 and rose to 2242.93 in March of 1950. Due to the price contrast between rising domestic prices and falling foreign prices, according to the above policy requirements, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar in China was lowered from 65,438+65,438+1= old RMB in 80 yuan in 0949 to 65,438+1= old RMB in 0 yuan on March 3, 0950, with a year of zero. As for the exchange rate with other foreign currencies, it is based on their indirect arbitrage against the US dollar.
From March 1950 to the end of 1952, with the change of domestic prices from rising to falling, and at the same time, because the United States launched an aggressive war against North Korea and snapped up a large number of war preparation materials, the United States and its allies successively announced a series of "blockade and embargo" measures against China. In this case, China must lower the foreign exchange rate to promote imports. Therefore, according to the needs of the development of the situation at that time, the focus of China's exchange rate policy also changed from "promoting exports" to "giving consideration to both imports and exports", and gradually increased the RMB exchange rate. 1 952 65438+February, the RMB exchange rate was raised to1USD = 26 170 yuan.
During this period, China's foreign trade target was mainly the United States, and foreign trade was mainly operated by private importers and exporters. Timely adjustment of RMB exchange rate can regulate import and export trade and ensure export growth.
2. The second stage (1953 ~ 1972). Since 1953, domestic prices have tended to be generally stable, and foreign trade has been managed by state-owned companies, and the prices of major products have also been included in the national plan. The planned economy itself requires the RMB exchange rate policy to be basically stable, which is conducive to the internal accounting of enterprises and the preparation and implementation of various plans. At the same time, due to the establishment of a fixed exchange rate system centered on the US dollar, the exchange rates of various countries have remained relatively stable to some extent. In addition, there are few direct trade relations and loan relations between China and western industrial countries, so the exchange rate changes of western currencies have little influence on China's RMB exchange rate.
Under the situation that the domestic price level tends to be stable, China has carried out the first monetary reform since the founding of the People's Republic of China. 1955? The new RMB was issued on March 1 day, and the conversion ratio of the old RMB to the new RMB was 1: 10000. Since the new version of RMB was adopted, from 1955 to 197 1, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has been 1, equivalent to 2.46 18 RMB.
197 1 year 65438+February 18,? The official price of USD against gold depreciated by 7.89%, and the RMB exchange rate was raised to 1 USD against RMB 2.2673 accordingly.
During this period, the RMB exchange rate policy adopted a stable policy, that is, on the basis of the original exchange rate, it was formulated with reference to the exchange rates announced by various governments, and gradually separated from the price. However, at this time, the price gap between home and abroad is widening, and the import and export costs are very different. Therefore, the foreign trade system adopts the method of overall planning of import and export gains and losses, and implements the method of making up for export losses by import profits, and the adjustment effect of RMB exchange rate on import and export is weakened.
3. The third stage (1973 ~ 1978). 1After March 1973, the Bretton Woods system was completely disintegrated, and the floating exchange rate system was widely implemented in western countries. In order to avoid the influence of inflation and exchange rate changes in western countries on China's economy, China began to adjust the exchange rate of RMB against foreign currencies frequently from 1973 (only in 1978, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was adjusted by 6 1 time). When calculating the exchange rate of RMB, we adopted the method of pegging to a weighted "basket" of currencies, all of which were in the basket.
During this period, the direct goal of RMB exchange rate policy is still to maintain the basic stability of RMB. In view of the constant dollar crisis, the exchange rate continues to fluctuate downwards, and the RMB exchange rate changes frequently and gradually appreciates. 1972 is 1? USD = 2.24 RMB; 1973 1 USD = 2.005 yuan; 1977 equals 1 USD = 1.755 RMB.
Since the mid-1950s, China has been implementing the traditional socialist planned economy, which is self-closed to the outside world and highly centralized at home. Until the early 1980s, the country's foreign exchange was basically in a state of zero reserves, the import and export of foreign trade were mainly confined to socialist countries, the balance of payments was generally balanced, and the domestic price level was frozen by mandatory plans. Although the RMB exchange rate is seriously overvalued, it has not brought obvious negative effects.
Second, the reformed RMB exchange rate arrangement.
After the reform and opening up, China's RMB exchange rate arrangement has roughly experienced four stages of development:
1. The first stage (1979 ~ 1984). From 65438 to 0979, China's foreign trade management system began to reform, and foreign trade was changed from a state-owned foreign trade department to a number of operations. Because China's prices have been set by the state plan for a long time, many commodity prices are low and the price ratio is unbalanced, which leads to a large price gap between domestic and foreign markets and export losses, making it impossible for the RMB exchange rate to take into account both trade and non-trade aspects. In order to strengthen economic accounting and meet the needs of foreign trade system reform, the State Council decided to implement two exchange rate systems from 198 1, that is, to set the internal settlement price of trade foreign exchange separately and keep the official quotation as the settlement price of non-trade foreign exchange. This is the so-called "dual exchange rate system" or "dual exchange rate system".
The official quotation of RMB 1980 is USD 1 = RMB 1.5 yuan. From 198 1 year 1 month to 1984 65438+2 months. China implements the internal settlement price of trade foreign exchange, which is 1 USD = 2.80 RMB; The official quotation is non-trade foreign exchange 1 USD = 1.50 RMB. The former is mainly applicable to the settlement of import and export trade and trade ancillary expenses; The latter is mainly applicable to the exchange and settlement of non-trade foreign exchange, and the original weighted average calculation method of a basket of currencies is still adopted.
With the gradual appreciation of the US dollar in the early 1980s, China correspondingly lowered the published RMB foreign exchange quotation, making it close to the internal settlement price of trade foreign exchange. 1 The foreign exchange rate of RMB announced at the end of 1984 has been adjusted to1USD = 2.7963 RMB, which is the same as the internal settlement price of trade foreign exchange.
2. The second stage (1985 ~ 1990). Under the dual exchange rate system of RMB, foreign trade enterprises suffer policy losses, which increases the burden of financial subsidies. The International Monetary Fund and foreign manufacturers oppose the dual exchange rate system. 1 985 65438+1 October1,China canceled the internal settlement price of foreign exchange for trade and resumed the single exchange rate system,1USD = 2.80 RMB.
In fact, from 65438 to 0986, with the full-scale development of foreign exchange swap business in China, a new dual-track system with unified official quotations and large differences in market swap exchange rates was formed. Moreover, at that time, in the foreign exchange swap market all over the country, the market exchange rate level at each time point was different. This multiple exchange rate system with the coexistence of official exchange rate and market exchange rate continued until the end of 1993. In the meantime, the exchange rate formation mechanism of the foreign exchange swap market has experienced a process from artificial pricing at the beginning of the trial to being determined by the relationship between market supply and demand.
Since the mid-1980s, the price increase in China has accelerated, while the western countries have achieved certain results in controlling inflation. In this case, the China government consciously used the exchange rate policy to regulate the economy and foreign trade, and continued to lower the RMB exchange rate accordingly. 65438+1 August 2, 19951day, the RMB exchange rate was lowered to1USD = 2.90 RMB; In the same year, 65438+10.3? Down to $65438 again +0 = 3.00 yuan; In the same year, 1 October 30th 10 was adjusted to1USD = 3.20 RMB.
From 1 98665438+1October1,RMB abandoned its peg to a basket of currencies and managed to float instead. Its purpose is to make the RMB exchange rate adapt to the requirements of international value and remain relatively stable for a period of time.
On July 5th, 1986, the RMB exchange rate was sharply lowered again to 1 USD = 3.7036 RMB. 1 989 65438+February 16, the RMB exchange rate was greatly lowered again, from the previous1USD = 3.722 1 RMB to 4.72 1? Yuan RMB. 1990165438+1October17th, the RMB exchange rate dropped sharply again, from the previous 4.722 1 to 5.222 1 RMB.
During the ten years from the reform and opening up to April 9 199 1, the characteristics of RMB exchange rate policy are as follows: first, the dual exchange rate system with internal settlement price and published quotation price of trade foreign exchange and the multiple exchange rate system with official exchange rate and market exchange rate coexist respectively; Second, the published official exchange rate of RMB is adjusted according to market conditions, showing a sharp depreciation trend, which is basically consistent with the sharp depreciation of the real value of RMB in China and the balance of payments situation in China in the same period; Thirdly, many useful attempts have been made in the adjustment mechanism of the official exchange rate of RMB, such as the small step-by-step adjustment method and the large one-off adjustment method, which laid the foundation for the implementation of the managed floating exchange rate system of RMB in the future; Fourth, the market exchange rate mechanism is gradually improved; Fifthly, the regulating role of market exchange rate is becoming more and more important in China.
3. The third stage (199 1 ~ 1993). On April 9, 199 1, China began to implement a managed floating operation mechanism for the official exchange rate of RMB. The official exchange rate of RMB was adjusted in a timely, moderate, flexible and fluctuating manner, which changed the previous practice of adjusting the exchange rate by stages. In fact, the RMB exchange rate adopts a multiple exchange rate system in which the official exchange rate and the market exchange rate (that is, the foreign exchange swap price) coexist.
The managed floating exchange rate system of RMB in China mainly refers to the managed floating of the official exchange rate of RMB. Its basic feature is that China's foreign exchange administration organ, namely the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, makes timely, moderate, flexible and up-and-down adjustments to the announced official RMB exchange rate according to the situation of China's reform, opening up and development, especially the requirements of foreign economic activities, and referring to the changes in the exchange rates of major currencies in the international financial market. In more than two years, the official exchange rate has been slightly lowered dozens of times, but it still can't keep up with the increase in export exchange costs and foreign exchange adjustment prices.
4. The fourth stage (1994 ~ 2005). From 65438+65438+/kloc-0 in 0994 to 1 in October, China implemented the RMB exchange rate consolidation. 1 99365438+February 3 1, official exchange rate1USD against RMB 5.8 yuan; The exchange rate in the swap market is about 1 USD against RMB in 8.7 yuan. Starting from 1994 65438+ 10 1, the two exchange rates are merged and a single exchange rate is implemented. The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will be set at 1? 1 USD to RMB 8.70. At the same time, the mandatory plan for foreign exchange receipts and payments will be cancelled, the retention and settlement of foreign exchange will be cancelled, the bank settlement and sale system will be implemented, the pricing, settlement and circulation of foreign currency in China will be prohibited, the inter-bank foreign exchange trading market will be established, and the exchange rate formation mechanism will be reformed. After the unification of exchange rates, China established a single and managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand. At this point, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar tends to be stable, maintaining around 1 US dollar = 8.3 yuan.
With the deepening of reform and opening up, China's foreign exchange management system has undergone a series of major reforms, especially after the reform of 1994 foreign exchange system, the Chinese government promised to realize the convertibility of RMB under current account before 2000.
In fact, in 1994, China began to implement the "conditional" convertibility of RMB under the current account, canceling most restrictions stipulated by the International Monetary Fund, such as discriminatory monetary measures or multiple exchange rate arrangements, and the use of foreign exchange and capital transfer in most current account transactions were no longer restricted.
The Regulations on Foreign Exchange Control in People's Republic of China (PRC) came into effect on April 1, 1996, which cancelled some foreign exchange restrictions on non-trade and non-operating transactions under current account that remained after 1994; 1in July 1996, the restrictions on private use of foreign exchange were also lifted, the scope of foreign exchange supply was expanded, and the foreign exchange supply standard was improved. Purchase of foreign exchange exceeding the standard can be purchased after preliminary examination by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange; On July 1996, 1, China brought foreign-invested enterprises into the national unified bank settlement and sale system, thus canceling the current account foreign exchange restrictions after the reform of 1994 foreign exchange system.
1 996165438+1On October 27th, the People's Bank of China officially sent a letter to the International Monetary Fund: China will no longer apply the transitional arrangement stipulated in Article 14, paragraph 2, of the Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund, and officially announced that since June1996. China will accept the obligations of Article 8, paragraphs 2, 3 and 4 of the International Monetary Fund, and will no longer restrict the payment and transfer of current international transactions that are not for the purpose of capital transfer, and will no longer implement discriminatory monetary arrangements and multiple exchange rate systems.
2001117 Guo Shuqing, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China and deputy director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, pointed out that according to the relevant agreement signed by China and the United States in 1998, China promised to expand the flexibility of RMB. Therefore, if China chooses to peg to other currencies or adopt the currency linked exchange rate system, it will not only violate its promise, but also be a retrogression. Increasing exchange rate flexibility is a realistic choice. At this stage, China will still focus on stabilizing the exchange rate, and at the same time use the daily exchange rate fluctuation range of 3‰ to make the market gradually adapt to the exchange rate fluctuation. In the future, measures will be taken to improve the marketization of the RMB exchange rate generation mechanism, such as effectively using the floating range of the inter-bank market exchange rate; Adjust the management policy of turnover position of bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange; Further improve the foreign exchange settlement system.
Third, the new stage of RMB exchange rate arrangement.
On July 2, 2005, the People's Bank of China issued the [2005]No.? 16? Circular 1-Announcement on Issues Related to the Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism. Its main contents are as follows:
(1) Since July 2, 2005, China has started to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. The RMB exchange rate is no longer pegged to a single dollar, forming a more flexible RMB exchange rate mechanism.
(2) The People's Bank of China announces the closing price of the exchange rate of USD and other trading currencies against RMB in the inter-bank foreign exchange market on that day after the market closes every working day, as the middle price of the currency against RMB on the next working day.
(3) On July 2, 2005 1 day 19: 00, the transaction price of USD against RMB was adjusted to1USD against 8. 165438 0 yuan RMB, as the middle price of transactions between designated foreign exchange banks in the inter-bank foreign exchange market the next day, and designated foreign exchange banks can adjust the listed exchange rate for customers from this time.
(4) At this stage, the daily transaction price of USD against RMB in the inter-bank foreign exchange market is still within three thousandths of the median price of USD transactions announced by the People's Bank of China, and the transaction price of non-USD currencies against RMB fluctuates within a certain range above and below the median price of this currency transactions announced by the People's Bank of China.
(5) The People's Bank of China will adjust the floating range of exchange rate according to market development and economic and financial situation. At the same time, the People's Bank of China is responsible for managing and regulating the RMB exchange rate according to the domestic and international economic and financial situation, based on market supply and demand, with reference to changes in the exchange rate of a basket of currencies, maintaining the normal fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, promoting the basic balance of international payments, and maintaining macroeconomic and financial market stability. "
The core of the reform of RMB exchange rate arrangement this time is to abandon the peg to the US dollar and instead peg to a basket of currencies, so as to establish a more flexible, freely adjustable and self-managed RMB exchange rate mechanism based on market supply and demand. Judging from the short-term appreciation of RMB, it will help to alleviate the huge pressure of international balance of payments imbalance, and at the same time release the potential appreciation pressure of RMB and dilute the international contradiction between RMB and US dollar. From a long-term strategic point of view, the establishment of a new RMB exchange rate mechanism will be conducive to promoting the market-oriented reform process of RMB exchange rate arrangements, and ultimately create asymptotic conditions for RMB convertibility under capital account.