In June 2020, house prices in Dongguan "rose more than Shenzhen for the first time". In the following three months (July to September, 2020), Dongguan issued a new property market policy five times in a row, strictly blocking the "loopholes" in the property market.
Shenzhen RealData predicts that the Dongguan real estate market is expected to continue the upward trend of 202 1 in 2020. However, in 2020, the short-term upward space will be under pressure after the price increase accelerates. At the same time, stricter control policies will be introduced in 2020, and the market cooling will tend to be rational, and the price expectation will be relatively stable.
In June, house prices in Dongguan attracted much attention because they rose more than those in Shenzhen.
From the perspective of the whole year, the monitoring data of Shenzhen RealData shows that in 2020, there were about 98,700 new houses in Dongguan, including 64,700 houses, up 33.6% year-on-year, and the average transaction price was about 24,000 yuan/square meter, up year-on-year.
According to the monitoring data of Shenzhen RealData, affected by the "epidemic situation" in early 2020, the new housing market in Dongguan was very depressed, with less than 6,000 new housing transactions in the first quarter; With the remarkable effect of epidemic prevention and control, the transaction volume rebounded sharply in the second quarter, including 702 1 set in June, which was the stage high in the first half of the year.
According to the report of Shenzhen RealData, the transaction of second-hand houses in Dongguan was more active in the first half of the year, with the phenomenon of foreigners buying, and the house price rose significantly. According to Shenzhen RealData data, the average transaction price rose continuously from March to July, exceeding 20,000 yuan/square meter in April, and the volume and price reached a new high in July.
It is worth mentioning that in June 2020, the house price in Dongguan "rose more than Shenzhen for the first time", which attracted much attention.
According to the report released by Dongguan Zhongyuan Strategic Research Center, in recent years, the supply and demand of new houses in Dongguan continued to be tight. In the first half of 2020, affected by the epidemic, many projects stopped working and the supply was in a gap period, resulting in a particularly tight overall supply, hitting a record low. On the demand side, the closed management of the main communities affected by the epidemic caused the demand of the second-hand housing market to flow into the first-hand housing market. In addition, the release of water by the central bank has brought inflation expectations, investors have entered the property market, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the whole house is sharp, which has promoted the rapid rise of house prices. At the same time, the local self-occupation and investment demand in Dongguan have been fully activated, and they have entered the market to chase up; In the second half of the year, local cities continued to be hot, and the supply and demand of the property market were booming, but the overall market was still in short supply, and the ratio of supply and demand remained at 0.8, with obvious contradictions between supply and demand.
According to the monitoring of Shenzhen RealData, the overall trend of second-hand houses in Dongguan is on the rise in 2020, with the annual turnover exceeding 40,000 sets and the average transaction price reaching more than 20,000 yuan/square meter. The market is also very active. First, the macro environment is relatively favorable. In the first half of the year, the purchase of second-hand houses was not limited, and the release of demand accelerated; Secondly, in recent years, the transaction process of second-hand houses in Dongguan has been optimized, and the tax collection method has been adjusted, which has developed into a mature market (such as Shenzhen). There is a phenomenon that some foreign buyers have entered the second-hand housing market in Dongguan. However, due to the rapid price increase, the regulation was introduced in time on July 25, and the second-hand house was restricted. The market cooled rapidly and the trend was relatively stable in the second half of the year.
In 2020, Dongguan will regulate the property market five times in three months.
From July to September, 2020, Dongguan issued a new property market policy five times in a row, strictly blocking the "loopholes" in the property market.
On July 2nd, Dongguan issued the Notice on Further Strengthening the Management of Pre-sale (Sales) of Commercial Housing, demanding to speed up the sales of commercial housing under construction, strengthen the guidance on the sales price of commercial housing, and strengthen the sales supervision of commercial housing projects. It is clear that the price increase of new houses in the same area within three months shall not exceed 10%, and the average price difference of each new house in the same building shall not exceed 20%.
On July 25th, Dongguan issued the "Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Our City", adjusting the purchase restriction policy of commercial housing, and making it clear that non-registered families in this city must provide social security certificates accumulated over two years 1 year when purchasing the first set of commercial housing in Dongguan; Those who buy a second set of commercial housing must provide social security certificates for more than two consecutive years within three years, and suspend the sale of a third set of commercial housing to them. In addition, the commercial housing purchased by this comrade in the administrative area of Dongguan from the date of implementation must have obtained the certificate of immovable property for three years before it can be traded and transferred.
On September 3, Dongguan issued the Notice on Further Implementing the Policy of Restricting the Purchase and Transfer of Commercial Housing, clarifying the requirements for the indefinite transfer period of online signing of commercial housing before 0: 00 on April 1 17; 1 1, the commercial housing that has been signed online from April 0, 2065438 to 24: 00 on July 24, 2020 can be traded and transferred (including gifts) after two years of obtaining the certificate of immovable property rights; Commercial houses signed online after 0: 00 on July 25th, 2020 can be traded and transferred (including gifts) only after obtaining the certificate of immovable property for three years.
On September 1 1, Dongguan issued the "Tips on Preventing the Behavior of Selling the Housing Index of Newly-built Commercial Housing", clarifying that any behavior of collecting money on the grounds of providing services such as "obtaining the housing selection index", "locking the housing number" and "giving priority to housing selection" is suspected of violating the law.
On September 23rd, Dongguan issued the Notice on Adjusting Provisions on Loans and Withdrawals of Some Housing Provident Funds to adjust the maximum loan amount. The maximum loan amount for the first suite is adjusted from 6,543,800 yuan+0.2 million yuan to 900,000 yuan; The maximum loan amount for the second suite is adjusted from 800,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan. At the same time, increase the conditions for applying for the purchase of second-hand houses in other cities. Buying a second-hand house outside the city requires holding a property certificate for 6 months before applying for withdrawal. In addition, the withdrawal of property management fees will be stopped.
After controlling the property market five times in three months, according to the test data of Dongguan Zhongyuan Strategic Research Center, the residential transaction in Dongguan was about 750,000 square meters in June 5438+ 10, down 4% from the previous month. However, the residential transaction volume in Dongguan still rose by 77% year-on-year, hitting a new high in the same period of nearly five years.
202 1, the price trend is stable.
From the perspective of the primary market, the data of Dongguan Zhongyuan Strategic Research Center show that in 2020, the land area publicly sold in Dongguan was 7.58 million square meters, with a total construction area of 23.08 million square meters, up by 65,438+0% compared with 2065,438+09, and the government's land push was accelerated. Among them, * * * includes 38 cases of commercial and residential land supply and transaction, with a total area of 1, 8 1, 000 square meters and a construction area of 5.39 million square meters. The final actual floor price is 1, 4 1, 1.9 yuan/m2 (excluding supporting facilities), which is 4% higher than that of 20 1.9.
In terms of inventory, the report of Dongguan Zhongyuan Strategic Research Center shows that the residential inventory and decontamination cycle in Dongguan will continue to fall in 2020. By the end of 65,438+February 2020, there were 24,054 residential houses in Dongguan, with an inventory area of 2.98 million square meters, a sharp drop of 27% year-on-year. The market is in short supply, and the residential inventory is obviously in a hurry. If we consider the extension of some projects and the elimination of old project inventory, the digestion cycle of residential inventory has dropped to a record low. According to the digestion speed of the past six months, the digestion cycle of residential inventory at the end of 12 fell to a low point, shortened to 3.6 months, 4.3 months shorter than the same period last year. In fact, the current inventory digestion cycle has fallen to the low level since 20 16 if the influence of delay factors is considered.
According to the monitoring data of Dongguan Zhongyuan Strategic Research Center, the number of top 100 real estate enterprises in the city will increase steadily in 2020, and 30 top 100 real estate enterprises will enter the market throughout the year, an increase of 4 over the previous year, including OCT, Financial Street, Capital and Longhu. Among the top 20 transaction areas, 100 in front of real estate enterprises occupies 13 seats. With the housing enterprises such as Qianhai and Shimao entering Wanna in 2020, the number of the top 100 housing enterprises in the city will continue to rise in the future, and the "brand pattern" will become more and more prominent.
In 2020, the local auction market in Dongguan is hot, and major housing enterprises have laid out the Dongguan market. In addition, Guangdong Longyuan Group, Anhui Jiaotou, Hutchison Whampoa, New Century and other non-top 100 real estate enterprises actively entered the market, and their market share increased substantially, resulting in a decline in the market share of the top 100 real estate enterprises, but they still occupy half of the country.
According to the forecast of Shenzhen RealData, the market of 202 1 Dongguan will remain active and the trend of house prices will be stable.
Macroscopically, the expected income will not decrease. First, in 2020, Dongguan proposed that the nine southern towns will be fully docked in the future and integrated into the Shenzhen Pilot Demonstration Zone; Second, the settlement policy in Dongguan is loose, and the population is expected to continue to flow in. The college degree implemented in September 2020 can be directly entered into the household (valid until August 2025); The third is the construction of Greater Bay Area. Dongguan is an important node of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Corridor, and it is also driven by two first-tier cities, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
In terms of real estate, Shenzhen RealData believes that brand developers will actively enter Dongguan in 20 19-2020, and the land market will be active, and the old reform and urban renewal will be intensified, which will not only ensure effective supply, but also enhance the attention of urban value; Secondly, a new phenomenon of "second-hand housing prices upside down" appeared in some areas of Dongguan, which activated some housing demand. In addition, the development of real estate in Dongguan tends to be mature, and the second-hand housing market accounts for a high proportion (about 40%), and the circulation mechanism of new and second-hand housing is relatively perfect.
Shenzhen RealData predicts that the Dongguan real estate market is expected to continue the upward trend of 202 1 in 2020. However, in 2020, the short-term upward space will be under pressure after the price increase accelerates. At the same time, stricter control policies will be introduced in 2020, and the market cooling will tend to be rational, and the price expectation will be relatively stable.