After 50 years' development, China automobile industry started from 1953, and became a big automobile producer, and was listed as one of the top ten automobile producers in the world by international manufacturers' organizations. In 2003, the production and sales of automobiles reached 4.44 million and 4.39 million respectively, up by 35.2% and 34.2% year-on-year. This is the second consecutive year that the domestic automobile industry has achieved rapid growth since China joined the WTO, but it is not equal to strong growth. The gross output value of automobile industry in developed countries accounts for about 10%-20% of the gross national product, while that in China is less than 3%. There is still a long way to go for the automobile industry to become a pillar industry in China.
According to statistics, there were 123 vehicle manufacturers in China last year, covering 27 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government, of which 17 provinces (cities) produced automobiles and 23 provinces (cities) established automobile production lines. Of the more than 20 vehicle manufacturers in/kloc-0, only two have output exceeding 500,000 vehicles, only eight have output exceeding 100 vehicles, 95 have output below 100 vehicles, and 70 have output below 100 vehicles. In addition to the automobile factory, there are more than 500 refitting enterprises with the same product qualification. Among the above 600 automobile enterprises, about 200 have produced little or even "zero output" for many years.
According to the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" industrial plan reported by various places, by 2005, the national planned automobile production capacity will be no less than 6.22 million. This is only the planning data for 2000. With the vigorous development of automobile market in recent two years, many automobile companies have expanded their production. A study shows that by 2007, the comprehensive production capacity of various models will reach140,000 vehicles. Considering that the forming cycle of automobile production capacity usually takes more than 18 months, the project in 2002 will be effective this year. With a large number of new projects put into production in 2003, it is predicted that the utilization rate of China's automobile production capacity will drop to 55% in 2005, which is the lowest period from 2002 to 20 10. Overcapacity will inevitably lead to intensified competition and decreased profits.
Due to the sharp drop in automobile prices, the pent-up domestic consumption potential has been released, which is the basis for the sharp increase in automobile sales in 2002 and 2003. However, with the release of this part of demand, domestic automobile demand will develop according to the normal trend. According to the information center of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), this situation did occur: from June to April this year, the statistics of automobile industry 13 state-owned key enterprises showed that the inventory of finished products rose sharply. At the end of April, the total inventory value of finished products was 1, 42 1 100 million yuan, up by 27.9%. The increase in inventory forces enterprises to adopt a price reduction strategy. However, after the mainstream manufacturers such as GM, Volkswagen and Shenlong successively cut prices, the market did not move. "After the price reduction, there are not many people buying, and there are fewer people coming to see the car and ask about the car."
Development trend of automobile market
Trend 1: Change from seller's market to buyer's market.
The biggest feature of China's automobile market this year is that it has entered a transitional period, that is, the automobile has changed from a seller's market to a buyer's market. In this transformation process, the automobile output is growing rapidly, the inventory pressure is increasing day by day, and the situation of consumers holding money for purchase is increasing day by day. In order to promote sales, frequent price cuts by manufacturers have also hit consumers' confidence in consumption, resulting in consumers being unable to predict whether and how much the price will drop, thus delaying consumers' psychological expectations and making the wait-and-see atmosphere increasingly strong. For example, from the beginning of the year to now, the average price of imported cars has dropped by 15%, but consumers are still holding money for purchase.
Trend 2: Car prices have dropped sharply in a wide range.
According to incomplete statistics, in the first quarter, there were an average of 25 kinds of car models reduced in price every month, most of which were distributed in the price range below 6.5438+0.5 million yuan. Statistics show that nearly 80 models participated in the price reduction in the first three months, involving more than 20 automobile brands, and the number of price reduction models has been the same as that in the whole year of 2003. The overall price reduction of domestic cars exceeded 2%. In 2003, two-thirds of the 120 models with corresponding products changed their prices, and the average price reduction rate exceeded 8%. Due to the low base, the price of lower-priced models has not changed much, and the decline is particularly large. Data analysis shows that the cheaper the model, the greater the decline. According to the price analysis of 150 imported cars in the first three months of this year, the decline was even greater than that of domestic cars, reaching 4.3%. Compared with the imported car market in the same period, the overall price dropped by more than 5%. By 2006, after the tariff is reduced to 25%, more imported cars will be reduced in price.
Some car dealers said that there should be no further price cuts in the near future, and there is not much room for price cuts this year. But in fact, the pricing power of domestic cars is in the hands of automobile manufacturers, and the pricing of imported cars should also consider the competition with domestic cars. From the demand point of view, consumers' demand for car purchase is restrained by the tightening of car loans and the rise of oil products. Perhaps only a larger price cut can release the demand for car purchase.
Trend 3: Private capital and foreign capital enter China automobile market.
According to industry analysis, the real "blowout" of China auto market is not selling cars, but building cars. According to statistics, only China's home appliance giants such as Bird and T C L have formally applied to the state to produce automobiles, with the total M&A exceeding10 billion yuan, and even more optimistic about the automobile industry. It is reported that dozens of private enterprises in Zhejiang alone are interested in building cars.
At present, the major automobile manufacturers in China are constantly expanding their production capacity, and foreign investors have also increased their investment in China's automobile market. After large-scale mergers and acquisitions in recent years, the world automobile industry has initially formed six major automobile groups, including GM-Fiat-Fuji Heavy Industries-Isuzu, Ford-Mazda-Volvo-Daewoo, Daimler-Chrysler-Mitsubishi-Hyundai, Toyota-Daihatsu-Hino, Volkswagen-Scania and Renault-Nissan-Samsung. The six groups are optimistic about the attractive prospect of China automobile market, and on the basis of the strategic layout of China market, from their respective global strategic perspectives, they actively and quickly launched effective entry and competition strategies. Recently, joint ventures between Dongfeng and Nissan, FAW and Volkswagen, Brilliance and BMW, GM and SAIC, Changan and Ford are in full swing.
Trend 4: Rising production costs and declining sales revenue coexist.
The rising price of raw materials and the falling price of cars "nibbled away" the profits of manufacturers, and the era of profiteering of automobile manufacturers is coming to an end. If manufacturers want to achieve profit growth, they must find new profit growth points. Take this year as an example. After the Spring Festival, the price of raw materials in the domestic market has been rising: the unit price per ton of hot-rolled plates has increased by 200-300 yuan; Cold-rolled plate rises by 400 per ton-600 yuan. In February this year, compared with the same period of last year, ordinary large steel products increased by 26.9%, ordinary medium steel products increased by 36.7%, ordinary small steel products increased by 30.2%, wire rod products increased by 33.7%, and medium-thick steel products increased by 19.7%. Due to the sharp rise in the prices of raw materials such as steel, rubber and plastics, the cost of automobile manufacturers is rising sharply. By the end of March this year, due to the price increase of raw materials, the cost of building a car increased by 7%, thus reducing the profit level.
Trend 5: A group of powerful dealers will stand out.
The 3S and 4S stores, which developed rapidly in the past few years, are not integrated with the automobile factory of this brand, but actually have a vital relationship with the automobile factory, because they can only handle the products of one enterprise. If the operation effect of the automobile factory is not good, the dealers will be put in danger. Therefore, it has become the choice of many dealers to integrate the advantages of market and brand joining and establish a variety of brand management mechanisms to spread risks.
According to statistics, there are currently more than 20,000 automobile dealers in China, far exceeding the number of automobile factories. There are not a few dealers with annual sales of 50,000-60,000 vehicles and 70,000-80,000 vehicles, with sales of several billion yuan and business scale equivalent to that of a large and medium-sized automobile factory. The common characteristics of these dealers are multi-brand, cross-regional, collectivization and independent development. In recent years, on the basis of 3S, 4S stores and comprehensive automobile markets, big 3S markets and 5S supermarkets have developed, and a large number of dealer groups with 3S and 4S brand stores as the core have emerged. It is predicted that there may be a large number of powerful dealers in China automobile market in the future, and the influence of automobile manufacturers will gradually weaken, while the influence of dealers will gradually increase.
Coping Strategies of China Automobile Enterprises
Strategy 1: Establish R&D institutions and master core technologies.
At present, the structure of the automobile market is changing: first, the user structure is rapidly shifting to private, and private demand will be the main body of future automobile demand growth. Secondly, the product structure will still be dominated by cars. According to the latest data, 4 1% of consumers choose cars with the price of 65438+ 10,000-/kloc-0.50 million yuan, 25% choose cars with the price of/kloc-0.50 million-200,000 yuan, and only/kloc-0.7% choose cars with the price below 65438+ 10,000 yuan. From the sales volume in the first half of this year, it can be seen that the once popular economical cars have been left out in the cold, and the market performance is not satisfactory. Judging from the ranking of the economy car market in the first half of this year, although Li Xia and Alto are still at the top of the list, the obvious feeling is that they are unable to do so. The sales volume of the low-end market of all-economy cars has not widened the gap, and they will be caught up by latecomers if they are not careful. The overall share of economical cars in the low-end market is declining. Most car manufacturers in China produce low-end cars. Faced with the shrinking market scale and the rapid reduction of profits, manufacturers must establish their own technology research and development departments to develop new technologies and new models in order to enter the mid-level car market. At present, China's automobile industry is still protected by policies, and it will take five to six years to establish its own R&D institutions, but it needs a lot of capital investment. Nowadays, although the investment craze in the automobile industry has intensified the competition in automobile production, it also provides an opportunity to solve the capital problem. As long as we can effectively use the funds, we can quickly establish our own R&D team and master the core technologies necessary for future competition.
Strategy 2: Enter the automobile service market and seek new profit growth points.
The competition in the automobile market has changed from production and sales to after-sales service, and enterprises with insufficient R&D strength should put most of their energy into after-sales service. In the past five years, China's automobile manufacturing industry has grown by an average of 24.5%. It is predicted that by 20 10, the number of cars in China will reach 56 million. As an important supplement to the automobile market structure, there is still a big gap in the development of China's automobile aftermarket. In the mature foreign automobile market, spare parts account for 39%, manufacturers account for 265,438+0%, retail accounts for 7%, and service accounts for 33%. In the domestic automobile market, spare parts account for 37%, manufacturers account for 43%, retailers account for 8%, and services account for 12%. The data shows that at present, the proportion of manufacturers in domestic automobile sales is still too large, while the proportion of services is too small. In addition to financing, leasing and other automobile services, there is still room for improvement in automobile after-sales service by nearly 10%. If it can account for 10% of sales, the enterprise can get considerable profits. Therefore, some uncompetitive enterprises can rely on their own industry experience to switch to the automobile service industry and adopt in-depth marketing, that is, by expanding the depth and breadth of service items and service contents, win the long-term trust and support of customers and cultivate their loyalty. For example, providing customers with all-round services such as auto credit, insurance, maintenance, repair, annual review, car guidance, auto technology upgrade, used car evaluation and transfer, so as to adapt to the inherent characteristics of auto consumption, meet the requirements of auto users for in-depth services, strengthen the dependence of auto users on auto services and auto service enterprises, implement market structure optimization strategies, and form new market competitive advantages.
Strategy 3: Open up sales with new concepts and personalized design.
With the increase of raw material prices and the decrease of vehicle prices, manufacturers must ensure both production and sales to achieve profitability, but now the sales of low-end cars are not smooth, and they need to rely on the power of marketing to break the sales dilemma. First of all, there must be a brand concept suitable for the current market. Now private people are the main force to buy a car, but if you look closely, it is mainly family buying. Therefore, most of the current automobile brand concepts are based on family harmony, but with the further development of the market, after the overall needs of automobiles are met, they will inevitably develop to individual needs. In the future, the mainstream concept of the market will be personalized automobile products, rather than the role of showing identity and status now. Consumers will pay more attention to the practicality and after-sales service of cars, so only by paying close attention to the changes in the market can manufacturers be in an invincible position in the competition. For example, the popularity of Chery QQ is the application of its personalized design and sales concept.
Strategy 4: Brand independence is the fundamental way for China enterprises to break through the shackles of foreign enterprises.
In 2005, China's automobile import tariff will be reduced to 25%. Like the import tariff on spare parts, although there are still many policy restrictions on automobile import in China, for foreign automobile manufacturers, the tariff of 25% is insignificant compared with the imaginative market space in China. It is conceivable that when the policy restrictions are reduced, more newer models will be directly shipped to our market from abroad for sale, instead of being localized first and then launched in the China market as it is now. At the beginning, the purpose of introducing foreign capital to cooperate with domestic enterprises was to learn and absorb foreign advanced technology and experience and enhance the ability of independent development. However, in the process of cooperation, China automobile manufacturers did not achieve this goal, but simply brought foreign models to China to realize localization. So far, it has formed an embarrassing situation that foreign models dominate the China market and domestic brands are nowhere to be found. Recently, Peking University undertook the research project "Research on the Competitiveness of China Automobile Industry" specially approved by the Ministry of Education, and sent a questionnaire survey to the public on how to view the development prospect of China automobile industry. Results More than 80% people advocate that "China must develop its own brand cars", which shows that developing its own brand cars is the aspiration of the people, and the autonomy of car brands is the "itch" of China consumers. Therefore, the enterprise can produce its own brand products that meet the needs of consumers, and the enterprise can be favored by consumers. However, at present, there are not many domestic enterprises with the strength to launch this product, and those enterprises with this strength only push the models provided by the joint venture company for immediate interests, and have not cultivated their own research and development capabilities. Under the guidance of market-changing technology, China car industry has developed for more than 20 years, with a certain foundation and considerable scale. The problem of forming independent development ability and developing independent brands should be put on the agenda. What domestic enterprises should do first is brand and technology independence. In the final analysis, it is technical independence. Only in this way can we degenerate from the assembly plant of foreign automobile enterprises to the real automobile production enterprises.
Strategy 5: Adapt to the market development and find a new sales model.
China's automobile market started from hypermarkets. Circle a piece of land first and sublet it to many individuals or units. They rely on their magical powers to sell several cars, various brands and models there. The advantage of a hypermarket is that it is convenient for consumers to shop around. At that time, the automobile brands in China were very limited, and you could see all the automobile products in China in one afternoon. The disadvantage is that there is no follow-up maintenance service, and the stalls selling cars are generally "grabbing land". However, with the intensification of the automobile brand war, a single brand of 4S stores have mushroomed in China, forming a group. The advantages and disadvantages of 4S stores lie not in the scale, but in the improvement of functions. Consumers gradually like this environment of buying a car and repairing a car: there are sales consultants to introduce product performance one-on-one; Establish a special business tracking file after buying a car; There is a comfortable rest area for repairing cars, and even free meals are provided. Although the sales model of 4S stores has shrunk in the developed automobile sales market in the world, it does not mean that the 4S model has lost its development prospects in China. The sales model of 4S stores has adapted to the current consumer mentality in China with its high-quality service: cars are consumer goods that show their status. Because of its after-sales service, this sales model is obviously not suitable for consumers to become more mature and pay more and more attention to the market development trend of after-sales service. Judging from China's "Measures for the Administration of Automobile Brand Monopoly", franchise stores cannot set up branches to display or sell automobiles. The automobile brand monopoly system has been affirmed by the policy, and the automobile marketing model will be dominated by brand monopoly, while other marketing models will be suppressed. From the manufacturer's point of view, those who get the channel get the world. An orderly, controllable, selective, exclusive and semi-monopoly sales channel is what manufacturers are happy to see. However, we have noticed that brand stores are not allowed to sell or accept orders through any institutions or individuals, nor can they set up any branches to display or sell cars. This is equivalent to canceling the secondary distribution right of brand stores, which can only be sold to end users, which invisibly increases the input cost of stores, and this part of the cost will inevitably be passed on to consumers and increase their burden. Therefore, the future car sales model is likely to develop to several 1S stores, and finally separate sales from service and maintenance from car beauty through division of labor. Automobile sales are mainly completed in automobile supermarkets; Maintenance is represented by another dealer, and the manufacturer provides technical and spare parts support. Therefore, as long as the car sales, maintenance, interior sales and other 1S stores are centralized, the scale effect of service can also be realized.
market outlook
With the breaking of the old system of the automobile market, the seller's market has changed to the buyer's market, and demand determines supply. The improvement of automobile production capacity has brought about overproduction. Under such a development background, automobile production enterprises should change their business philosophy, adapt to the requirements of market development, improve automobile after-sales service, and change the sales-oriented business philosophy into the customer-oriented business philosophy. The value and position of dealers can never be ignored. Automobile dealers have become an important bridge between automobile products and consumers. Only by achieving "win-win" with distributors can we ensure the healthy development of enterprises. Multi-brand operation of automobile supermarket meets customers' diversified consumption demand and service expectation demand, and lays an objective foundation for its development. National policy support will also make the competition in the automobile industry more standardized and provide the necessary hardware for the development of the automobile industry.
There is still a lot of room for development in China's automobile market. If China enterprises want to take this market into their own hands, they must make a breakthrough in vehicle technology and design, establish their own brands, get rid of foreign control over China enterprises and realize their independence. The participation of various industry funds can also provide experience for improving the level of automobile after-sales service. However, the general premise is that the national automobile industry policy should be formulated as soon as possible, which will point out the direction for the development of China's automobile industry and provide various policy support. Only with the support of the state and the efforts of enterprises can the automobile industry develop into a pillar industry in China, and China automobile can occupy a place in the world automobile market.