However, judging from the performance of the stock market in recent two years, the China stock market shows signs of gradually going bullish. Among them, Shanghai is weak and strong, which is an important operating feature of the A-share market in recent years. The main reason is that the Shenzhen market has gathered a large number of emerging industries, which can better reflect the development characteristics of the new economic era. As for the Shanghai Stock Exchange, a large number of traditional cyclical industries have gathered, and industries represented by banks and real estate occupy a high market share. However, the poor market performance of these traditional industries in recent years has intensified the operation pattern of Shanghai's weak and strong.
Since July 22 this year, the Shanghai Composite Index has implemented the index compilation reform. After the reform, the market index has certain reference value, and the way of bringing new shares into the index has been adjusted appropriately to reduce the influence of bringing new shares into the index too quickly. At the same time, due to the gradual addition of new elements such as science and technology innovation board, the index elasticity of A-share market will be higher in the future, which will more or less reduce the influence of traditional cyclical stocks and heavyweights on the market index.
Growth enterprise market bottomed out in June 20 18, and the main board market bottomed out in June 20 19. Since the market index bottomed out, the A-share market has gone out of the bull market in the past two years. However, due to the lagging index performance of the Shanghai Composite Index, many investors failed to feel the significance of the bull market. However, in contrast, the market index represented by Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Growth Enterprise Market has risen unilaterally in the last two years, and the Growth Enterprise Market index has seen a cumulative double increase, which is very obvious in the bull market.
In the bull market environment, the market often shows strong resilience, and the impact of negative shocks is limited. In the multi-party market, the stock market is basically in a state of amplifying positive and narrowing negative. However, judging from the A-share bull market in the past two years, it is difficult for investors to make money.
Specifically, the white horse stock market represented by Maotai, Haitian, Pien Tze Huang and Wuliangye performed strongly. Such listed companies have high market weight and are more likely to incite the index to rise. However, for many ordinary stocks, especially those with poor performance and high homogeneity, the stock price has been running at a historical low level in the past two years, and the degree of differentiation of the whole market is very obvious, which largely reflects the characteristics of the strong and the weak.
A-shares are in a bull market, and it is increasingly difficult for investors to make money. The reasons are mainly reflected in the following aspects.
Among them, although the market has changed from the era of stock capital game to the era dominated by incremental capital under the bull market environment, the inflow of incremental capital is more inclined to white horse stocks and scarce enterprises, and the capital attraction of these listed companies' stocks is getting stronger and stronger, even forming a situation in which institutions gather together to keep warm and work together to raise the stock price. However, for the high-flying white horse stocks, a large number of investors are discouraged and dare not warm up with institutional investors, thus missing the dividend period of rising stock market value.
Furthermore, in this year's special market environment, global liquidity is in an excessively loose state, while risk-free interest rates tend to decline, which greatly enhances the valuation premium space of high-quality scarce enterprises. A few years ago, it was rare to see the valuation of Maotai exceed 30 times, but today Maotai enjoys a valuation premium of 4 or 50 times. For ordinary investors, either keep an eye on low-priced stocks, investors can never get out of the investment trap of low-priced stocks; Either stare at the P/E ratio and always think that the lower the P/E ratio, the lower the risk. The above two types of stocks are most prone to the risk of stepping on the air in this year's market, and even the phenomenon of falling instead of rising.
In addition, although the A-share market has gradually changed the operating characteristics of the short bull and long bear, due to the influence of the big white horse, the differentiation of the A-share market has become more and more obvious. In other words, for a few head enterprises, they are in a short-term running state, and this running feature may continue all the time. But compared with it, for most ordinary enterprises, it is still in operation, but the continuous rise of a few head enterprises will easily lead to the relative distortion of the market index, and the influence of a few head enterprises on the market index will be greater and greater.
It is worth mentioning that in recent years, the expansion speed of the A-share market has obviously accelerated, and the current market is in the stage of accelerating the registration system. In the environment of registration system, although the market is supplemented by incremental funds, incremental funds may not be able to resist the financing pressure of the stock market. Affected by this, in the context of the continuous expansion of the market, the future market funds may be more and more concentrated in a few head enterprises, and for most ordinary enterprises, it will even be in a state of market marginalization.