On Monday, the three major stock indexes of A-shares opened lower and went higher, then fell back in the afternoon and rose again in the late session. The total turnover of the two cities is1177.6 billion yuan; The net purchase of northbound funds was 3.284 billion yuan. Disk observation: aviation military industry, COVID-19 inspection, tobacco concept and other sectors were among the top gainers; Tourism, household goods, warehousing and logistics sectors were among the top losers. At the close: the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.04% to 3,562.70 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22% to 148 10.20; Growth enterprise market index rose 1.00% to 3503.4438+0.
market outlook
A-shares also opened lower today, as the peripheral stock market fell sharply due to the influence of COVID-19 strain mutated over the weekend. But in fact, since the beginning of this year, we have repeatedly said that we should comprehensively consider the game between "the expectation of sustained economic recovery" and "the fear of financial policy contraction", and have never thought that the epidemic has been effectively controlled (even often suggesting the possibility of "repeated epidemics"). For example, "the epidemic situation improves and the economy recovers" is good for the market, but it may make "fiscal policy tightening" worse; However, in case "the change of epidemic situation leads to the increase of downward pressure on the economy", it will be bad, but at the same time "monetary policy may be relatively loose". Simply put, the influence of fundamentals and policies is in a dynamic game, not simply "good" or "bad"! Moreover, the key point for the domestic market is that, thanks to the strong domestic epidemic prevention and control policies, the variation of COVID-19 strain has limited influence on us, and may even highlight the resilience of A shares. Of course, in any case, the variation of COVID-19 strain is indeed an uncertain factor, which may cause much actual impact and impact in the future. Because it involves medical knowledge, so we don't make too many predictions, just keep careful attention.
From the beginning of talking about policies, we have repeatedly said that both China and the United States are facing the tangled situation in the post-epidemic era, but China has more policy space and more ways than the United States; Since the fourth quarter, the A-share market has repeatedly fluctuated in the high-level box under the environment of "economic pressure, policy hedging and uncertain mood"; The recent easing expectations are heating up again, and the New Year market is expected to start slowly; Looking back at the panic moments of the past two years will often become a good opportunity for fund allocation. In addition, with the excellent resilience of domestic high-quality enterprises, the attractiveness of China assets to overseas investors will also be enhanced.
Operation strategy
Specific direction: on the one hand, we can pay attention to the medicine and testing sectors that benefit from the epidemic; On the other hand, with the change of economic cycle, three hot spots with strong molecular driving force, namely, new energy, military industry and hard technology, are still the mainstream of capital allocation.
Zhao, senior investment consultant of GF Securities, has the practice certificate number S02606 140600 14.