China's economic and social development has entered a new stage, which provides the following favorable conditions for economic and social development:
(1) There is a strong demand for development.
First, the consumption structure of residents has improved rapidly. The consumption structure of China residents is in a state of rapid improvement. China's consumer market is very broad, with unlimited business opportunities. The urgent need of the broad masses of people to improve their material and cultural life is an inexhaustible motive force for China's economic and social development.
Second, the adjustment of industrial structure was accelerated. We should focus on three major events: first, accelerate the development of advanced manufacturing and high-tech industries; The second is to speed up the development of service industry; The third is to strengthen the construction of basic industrial facilities.
Third, accelerate the process of urbanization. The transfer of rural surplus labor force to non-agricultural industries and cities and towns is an inevitable trend of industrialization and modernization. In 2003, urbanization in China accounted for 40.53%, and it is expected to reach 47% in 20 10 and 55% in 2020. Accelerating the urbanization process is not only an important strategy to promote regional coordinated development, but also a long-term measure to maintain the development momentum of China.
(B) a good foundation for development
First, China has inexhaustible labor resources, rich scientific and technological human resources and humanistic human resources, and has certain independent innovation ability.
Second, the infrastructure has been continuously improved. On the basis of more than 50 years of construction, a number of infrastructure related to the national economy and people's livelihood were built during the tenth five-year plan period. Such as Xiaolangdi Project and Three Gorges Project. The west-to-east gas transmission and the west-to-east electricity transmission have achieved initial results. The South-to-North Water Transfer Project is being planned and implemented. So far, the national highways are generally connected to the network, and the lowest degree is the provincial intranet.
Third, science and technology education has a good foundation. Since the founding of New China, China has made encouraging great achievements in science, technology and education through the continuous struggle of several generations: a large number of world-class scientific and technological achievements have been achieved, a relatively complete discipline system has been established, and a team of reliable and qualified scientific and technological talents has been established; China's national education system is quite huge, with a total of 1 736,5438+0 institutions of higher learning with more than10 million students. The population receiving compulsory education in China has reached about 98% of school-age children, and the cultural and scientific knowledge quality of the whole country has been greatly improved.
(3) Initially having the institutional guarantee for development.
The socialist basic economic system with public ownership as the main body and non-public ownership developing together has been established; A unified and open domestic market is gradually formed, and the domestic market is gradually in line with the international market; The functions of the government are changing to "economic regulation, market supervision, social management and public service", and efforts are made to establish an effective macro-control system in an all-round way. In addition, important progress has been made in the reform of the distribution system and social security system.
(d) Long-term social and political stability.
The CPC Central Committee and the State Council always keep a clear head and attach great importance to maintaining social stability. First, correctly look at the manifestations of the development and changes of contradictions among the people under the new situation, especially mass incidents, and strive to find, handle and effectively deal with them in time; Second, we should be highly vigilant against sabotage, subversion and infiltration by hostile forces, crack down on illegal and criminal cases, safeguard national security and social stability, and protect people's lives and property.
Second, the early 20th century (2 1) was the prominent period of various contradictions in China.
(A) Two basic situations
1. China is an economic power, but it is not an economic power. In 2002, for example, China's gross national product ranked sixth in the world, but its per capita gross national product ranked 73rd among 127 countries in the world. The United States and other 18 countries have already completed the transformation from an agricultural society to an industrial society, that is, the first economic modernization; Now six countries, including the United States, have entered the development stage of knowledge society from industrial society, that is, the second economic modernization process; Other 12 countries have also entered the primary stage of the second economic modernization.
At present, China is still in the middle and late stage of the transition from an agricultural society to an industrial society. In China today, the agricultural society and agricultural labor force account for 50% of the total employment in the country, which is equivalent to the ratio of the United States, France and Germany 1870.
2. Urban-rural and regional development is unbalanced. Due to the limitation of historical and realistic conditions, the proportion of gross national product in the eastern, central and western regions of China is very unbalanced. 1978 by 2003, the eastern economy had risen and the central and western economies had declined. This shows that the disharmony of regional development in China is very prominent, with multi-level and multi-faceted characteristics. This disharmony exists not only in the gap of economic development, but also in the gap of social development.
Seven main problems
1. There is no fundamental change in the growth mode of extensive economic. China has been trying to change the mode of economic growth for many years, but the current situation is still: remarkable progress has been made, the level is still very low, and the contradictions are very acute. Therefore, we should make up our minds to find the right way to develop productive forces.
2. The industrial structure is not reasonable enough. Since 1978, the industrial structure of China has changed, but this structure is not only lower than that of high-income countries, but also lower than that of low-income countries and middle-income countries. The lagging development of modern service industry reflects the low-level structure within the tertiary industry. This low level is manifested in the tertiary industry, where the life service industry has been dominant for a long time and the producer service industry is in a non-dominant position. This shows that modern service industries such as finance and insurance, real estate, logistics, scientific and technological development, and information resources services are developing slowly. The lagging development of modern service industry also reflects the lagging development of urbanization in China.
3. The ability of independent innovation is not strong. China's independent innovation ability is not strong, which is manifested in many aspects. For example, the contribution of China's scientific and technological progress to economic growth is only 24%, ranking 24th among the 50 major countries in the world, behind India and Brazil. The contribution rate of scientific and technological progress in the United States to economic growth is 60-70%. China's dependence on foreign technology is higher than 50%, while the United States and Japan are only lower than 5%. Facts profoundly tell us that improving the ability of independent innovation is the key to strengthening the national economic strength.
4. The contradiction between economic and social development and resources and environment is increasingly acute. China is a country with a large population and few resources, which will restrict China's economic and social development for a long time. China is a water-deficient country, and its per capita share is only 1/4 of the world average. There are 400 water shortages in 600 cities in China, with serious water shortages 1 10. China's arable land is only 40% of the world's per capita arable land. During the seven years from 1996 to the end of 2003, the cultivated land in China decreased by100000 mu. In addition, the per capita reserves of oil are only 8.3% of the world's per capita reserves, natural gas is only 4. 1%, copper is 25.5%, and aluminum is 9.7%. Environmental pollution and ecological destruction are becoming more and more serious.
5. Solving the problems of agriculture, countryside and farmers is quite arduous, which is the "top priority". The population of China is nearly 65.438+0.3 billion, with rural population accounting for 62.3% and deficit counties accounting for 35%. The average debt of each county is about 4 million yuan, and the average debt of each village is about 200,000 yuan. There are 592 poverty-stricken counties in China. In recent years, some rural areas have experienced the phenomenon of "returning to poverty". After the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the CPC Central Committee clearly put forward that we should attach great importance to the issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers, and implement the policy of "giving more, taking less and letting go". It is time for industry to feed back agriculture and cities to support rural areas. The 11th Five-Year Plan proposal adopted by the Fifth Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee in 2005 clearly put forward the important historical task of building a new socialist countryside. In the next five to ten years, China's agriculture, countryside and farmers will undergo fundamental changes.
6. Outstanding problems of uncoordinated economic development and social development. Building a harmonious society must have a corresponding material foundation. However, under the condition of economic development, if the outstanding social development problems cannot be solved in time, there will be sharp problems that affect social stability and hinder economic development. For more than a decade, the party and the government have always attached great importance to solving outstanding problems. However, with the rapid changes in the social transformation period, social problems are still emerging one after another. At present, the most prominent problems of uncoordinated economic and social development are: insufficient employment, imperfect social security system and unsatisfactory distribution. The deeper problems are education, culture and medical care.
7. The problems of institutional mechanisms affecting development need to be solved urgently. After more than ten years' efforts, the socialist market economic system has been initially established, but the deep-seated problems and contradictions have not been completely solved. Perfecting the socialist market economic system requires long-term efforts. At present, the whole party must fight a tough battle to deepen economic restructuring.
First, the transformation of government functions has not been fundamentally realized. The separation of government from enterprise, government from capital, government from enterprise, and government from market intermediary organizations has not yet been completed; Continue to reduce and standardize administrative examination and approval; The public service function of governments at all levels in social management needs to be strengthened. Accelerate the construction of a government ruled by law, comprehensively promote administration according to law, and improve the scientific and democratic decision-making mechanism and administrative supervision mechanism.
Second, we must uphold and improve the basic economic system. Deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises, promote the concentration of state-owned capital in important industries and key areas related to national security and the lifeline of the national economy, enhance the control of the state-owned economy, and play a leading role; Accelerate the shareholding system reform of large state-owned enterprises, improve the corporate governance structure, and explore and solve the ways to establish modern enterprises; Prevent the loss of state-owned assets and strengthen the supervision system of non-operating assets and natural resources assets. We will continue to deepen the reform of collective enterprises and develop various forms of collective ownership. Vigorously develop the individual and private non-public economy, guide the institutional innovation of individual and private enterprises, and encourage and support the non-public economy to enter financial services, public utilities, infrastructure and other fields.
Third, promote the reform of fiscal and taxation system, accelerate the reform of financial system and promote the construction of modern market system.
Fourth, speed up the transformation of foreign trade mode, implement the win-win opening strategy, and adapt to the development trend of economic globalization.
During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, China faces many favorable conditions and restrictive factors. Opportunities and challenges coexist. Generally speaking, opportunities outweigh challenges, which is beneficial to the development of China.
The favorable conditions are mainly:
(1) Maintaining peace, promoting development and seeking cooperation are the common aspirations of people all over the world, and they are also an irresistible historical trend in today's era. The trend of multipolarization in the world is further developing, and the comparison of world political forces is conducive to our efforts to strive for a peaceful international environment and a good surrounding environment for a long period of time.
(2) The trend of economic globalization is developing in depth, and the interaction and influence between China and the world economy is deepening, which is beneficial for us to make good use of the opportunities brought by economic globalization and make better use of external funds, technology, resources and global markets.
(3) The rapid progress of science and technology in the world is conducive to giving full play to the advantages of backwardness, promoting China's scientific and technological progress and innovation, and accelerating the development of high-tech industries and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries.
The development of China also faces many constraints and severe challenges.
First, there are more unstable and uncertain factors affecting world peace and development. The factors of traditional and non-traditional security threats are intertwined, and the harm of terrorism is on the rise. Hegemonism and power politics have taken on new manifestations. The economic and technological advantages of developed countries will put pressure on China for a long time.
Secondly, the international competition around resources, market, technology and talents is becoming increasingly fierce. While countries attach more importance to developing economic and trade relations with China, the contradictions between some countries and us in the economic and trade field are also increasing. Especially in the recent period, trade protectionism is on the rise, and external pressures such as RMB exchange rate, textile export, intellectual property rights and energy resources are increasing, and trade frictions in these fields will continue to appear in the future.
Third, China's independent innovation ability is weak, and core technologies and key equipment in many fields have long relied on imports. In recent years, the increasing dependence of oil and other important resources on foreign countries has posed new challenges to China's economic security.
Fourth, during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, the world economy is expected to continue to maintain steady growth, but in recent years, oil prices have continued to rise, and unstable and uncertain factors have increased in the international economic environment. The world economy may still fluctuate greatly in the future, which may have a negative impact on China's economic development. Q: What are the opportunities and challenges for China's foreign trade development? A: The first two decades of this century are an important period of strategic opportunities for China's development and China's foreign trade. From the external environment, world multipolarization and economic globalization are developing in twists and turns, science and technology are advancing with each passing day, and the pace of global economic restructuring and industrial transfer continues to accelerate. From the domestic situation, it has become the consensus of the whole country to adhere to Scientific Outlook on Development, build a well-off society in an all-round way, take a new road of industrialization and focus on changing the mode of economic growth. As an important bridge and link between China's economy and the world economy, foreign trade will surely achieve new development. However, China's foreign trade development still faces challenges. Mainly: there are many uncertainties in the development of the world economy, rising oil prices, constant regional conflicts and terrorist activities, increased trade protection measures against China, and developed countries still restrict high-tech exports to China. China's foreign trade development is facing increasing pressure on resources and environment, and the extensive growth mode needs to be changed urgently.