Data R&D Department of Text/Strategy Resource Center
Wu xiaojing
Has the house price really dropped in Shenzhen?
Since July 2007, especially after the central bank issued the policy of "40% down payment for second homes" on September 28, the transaction volume of commercial housing in Shenzhen has dropped sharply, and the price has also fluctuated. It seems that Shenzhen housing prices have begun to appear "inflection point" and will drop sharply. The reasons for this situation are:
First, under the pressure of the New Deal, developers adjusted their market strategies and accelerated the recovery of funds. The opening price of many newly opened properties is lower than before, and the projects opened in the later period adopt various promotional means.
Second, from the perspective of average price, the government restricted high-end housing and increased the supply of ordinary commercial housing, which greatly lowered housing prices.
Third, the central bank raised interest rates six times, and the cost of holding second-hand houses for some investors increased, releasing a large number of inventory sources in their hands, increasing market supply, loosening prices and lowering transaction prices.
Due to the decline in transaction volume, the opening price of individual projects has dropped slightly, and developers have increased the promotion of projects, which has led buyers to wait and see and think that prices will further drop.
However, has the housing price in Shenzhen really dropped? Let's look at the data.
Overall, the price of commercial housing in Shenzhen continued to rise in 2007, up 46% compared with 2006. Although the government issued a series of macro-control policies, the price of commercial housing in Shenzhen rose sharply in 2007, reaching 10 158 yuan /m2 at the beginning of the year, with an increase of 60.8%. Compared with first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, it is still in the position of the fastest growth and the highest price in the country.
In the first three weeks of 2008, the average weekly turnover of first-hand houses and second-hand houses was around 550 sets, mainly outside the customs; In the second week, the transaction price of first-hand houses fell to 1 6028.3 yuan/square meter after1week, and then rose to 14024 yuan/square meter in the third week, up 2.9% from the previous month. In 2007, the number of commercial housing transactions in Shenzhen and the average transaction price trend were 0200400600800 1 00180018002000 weeks13 weeks and 7 weeks 165438. Weeks 20th, 22nd, 24th, 26th, 28th, 32nd, 34th, 36th, 38th, 40th, 44th, 46th, 48th, 50th, 52nd and 2nd 05000100.
Number of transactions
Judging from the transaction situation in the whole year of 2007 and the first three weeks of 2008, despite the large-scale decline in transaction volume, the house price in Shenzhen did not show a large-scale downward trend, and the price fluctuated all the time. World Union believes that there is no possibility of a sharp drop in housing prices in Shenzhen for the following reasons:
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First, buyers are not exhausted in purchasing power, but in a wait-and-see state. Negative interest rates will continue to squeeze 70% of bank savings into the stock market and the property market. From the demand point of view, the explosion of residents' wealth is still going on, and people's income is growing well. Among the assets of ordinary residents, 70% are still in bank savings, and negative interest rates (savings rate is lower than inflation rate) keep squeezing these savings into the stock market and the property market. Proportion of residents who choose to invest more in stock market, property market and savings (%)0 10203040502005
1
season
degree
Q2, Q3 and Q4 1 Q2 in 2006, Q3 and Q4 1 Q2 in 2007, Q3 and Q4 choose to save more (%) and invest more in the stock market and property market (%).
Source: People's Bank of China.
Second, the recent policies only delay the release of purchasing power and accelerate the consolidation of the industry, which will definitely bring a new round of real estate gains. Soaring house prices will induce social contradictions, but the sharp drop in house prices is also not conducive to social harmony, and may also have a negative impact on consumption, which is contrary to the original intention of the government to stabilize the real estate market and establish a harmonious society.
Third, the new policy has led to industry restructuring, and developers with insufficient funds have been merged and acquired, so it is impossible for house prices to fall on a large scale. The adjustment of house prices depends largely on the cash flow of developers. In the case that the funds of the whole industry are still abundant and the economic liquidity is rampant, developers who are short of funds often will not jump off the building to reduce prices and be merged. The New Deal promoted the reorganization of the real estate industry in China. Some developers have raised enough funds through listing or issuing bonds and found a platform for capital operation.
The World Federation's judgment on the future housing price trend is: short-term decline, medium-term rebound, the main reasons are:
First, as an immigrant city, Shenzhen's population is still increasing rapidly, and the rigid demand is still strong.
According to the materials provided by the Population and Family Planning Bureau of each district, the population of Shenzhen has exceeded140,000 in 2007, among which the foreign population exceeded120,000. The population composition of Shenzhen is very special, and the registered population only accounts for 16%. Non-registered population accounts for 52%; The remaining 32% are floating population who have lived for less than one year. Among the above three groups of people, the floating population with urban household registration and the permanent population without household registration are the main owners of commercial housing. Therefore, the growth of income and wealth of these two groups, as well as the growth of population base, will be the most important factor to determine the growth of commercial housing demand in Shenzhen.
Second, the long-term shortage of land supply is difficult to improve.
There is little idle land, so it is urgent to use it as development land: Shenzhen is a small city with an area of only 1952.84 square kilometers. By the end of 2006, there were only 49.6 square kilometers of unused land. At the same time, affected by the state's strict policy of protecting cultivated land, there is little room for Shenzhen to use compressed cultivated land and other agricultural land for construction. The severe land supply situation makes the land available for real estate development in Shenzhen extremely urgent, especially in the special zone.
It is difficult to release more land supply in the reconstruction of urban villages: due to poor environment and conditions, urban villages in Shenzhen are often rented by low-income people, so objectively, urban villages in Shenzhen assume some functions of "low-rent housing". However, with the transformation of the village in the city, the "villagers" in the village will be forced to move out, increasing the demand of the commercial housing rental market. Copyright Shenzhen Shilian Real Estate Consultant Co., Ltd.
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Land supply is mainly commercial housing, and policy housing is only a minority: according to the 11th Five-Year Plan of Shenzhen Housing (2006-20 10),
In 2008, the planned construction area of commercial housing was 6.5438+0.04 million square meters, and the planned construction area of policy housing was 6.5438+0.5 million square meters, accounting for 87.4% and 654.38+0.2% of the total planned construction area respectively. It can be seen that the supply of low-rent housing and affordable housing is only a minority, and most buyers still have to choose commercial housing, which will further push up housing prices. The land planning for housing construction in Shenzhen in the next five years is1.10.32.21.83443.53.57.4615.45.30.30. 35343 . 55435435435
Third, it is difficult for price-limited houses to curb the upward trend of housing prices.
On June 4th, 2008, 65438, Shenzhen launched the first batch of "area-limited and housing-limited" plots in Longgang and Baoan District, with the highest selling prices of 9840 yuan/square meter and 8400 yuan/square meter respectively, which is about 20% lower than the market selling price of commercial housing in leased lots.
Baoan and Longgang introduced price-limited houses, mainly because of irrational price increases; It is unlikely to introduce price-limited rooms in customs, even if the effect is very limited. I chose to launch price-limited houses in Bao 'an and Longgang, mainly because of the soaring housing prices outside the customs in 2007. The irrational rise in housing prices outside the customs clearance is mainly due to the strong active demand and passive demand, which leads developers to set high prices. The launch of the first batch of "price-limited houses" in these two development hotspots will help curb the excessive rise of housing prices in this region and stabilize housing prices.
However, customs clearance is basically mature and house prices are high. Even if the price-limited room is introduced, the price is still much higher than that of the customs, so it is of little significance to introduce the price-limited room.
The supply of price-limited housing is far from meeting the demand, and the price-limited housing is not dominant in price and location, so most buyers will still choose commercial housing. On June 27th, 2007, 65438+February 27th, Guangzhou launched the first online subscription procedure for price-limited houses in China. Suite 843 of Poly Xiziwan in Jinshazhou was sold at a price of 6500 yuan/square meter. By the end of subscription on1October 7th, 65438, a total of 8046 people in Guangzhou Poly Xiziwan had subscribed for 843 price-limited houses, and the supply-demand ratio was close to1:10. It can be seen that buyers have a strong demand for price-limited housing; But at the same time, the quantity of price-limited housing is far less than that of commercial housing, and there are restrictions on the conditions of buyers, so the supply of price-limited housing is far from meeting the demand.
Standards and restrictive conditions for buyers of price-limited houses
Beijing
Beijing hukou, low-and middle-income
Guangzhou
Price-limited houses shall not be rented or transferred within 5 years from the date of registration of real estate ownership. If it is leased or transferred after the expiration of 5 years, it shall pay the land revenue price to the government. This price is calculated as 70% of the difference between the market price of commercial housing in the same location and the purchase price of price-limited housing.
Shenzhen
The purchase target is the registered population and the non-registered population who have lived in this city for more than a certain period of time; After obtaining the property right certificate, it may not be sold within 5 years, and each household is limited to one set.
Compared with commercial housing, the price of price-limited housing is not dominant: the price of price-limited housing in Shenzhen is equivalent to 70% of homogeneous commercial housing in the region, and that in Guangzhou is 80%, while the gap between price-limited housing in Beijing and comparable commercial housing is even smaller, only 10%- 15%. Price-limited rooms have no obvious advantage in price.
The geographical location, transportation and supporting facilities of price-limited houses are not as good as those of commercial houses: price-limited houses have certain shortcomings in geographical location, transportation and supporting facilities, and developers will also consider the cost input, and the average purchasing power of the market is obviously higher than that of customers of price-limited houses.
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Therefore, once there is a commercial housing with superior geographical location, convenient transportation and perfect facilities, customers are likely to give priority to the same type of commercial housing.
Fourth, the demand for residents' loans is still strong, and it is difficult for the loan tightening policy to curb rigid demand.
Due to the "loan control wind" in the fourth quarter of 2007, many banks have no money to lend by the end of the year, which also limits residents' loans to buy houses.
However, the demand for residential loans remains strong. In 2005, household loans increased by 332.3 billion yuan, and in 2006, household loans increased by 611900 million yuan. Among the 3.63 trillion yuan of new loans in 2007, the amount of new loans by households was 1. 1.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 32.5% of the total new loans in 2007. Among them, the increase of household loans has an obvious feature, and the trend of long-term loans is obvious. The increase of medium and long-term loans of households increased from 5 1 .43% in 1 quarter to 294% in1quarter at the end of February, and the newly-increased medium and long-term loans accounted for 72.38% of the total new loans of households.
In the first quarter of 2008, the demand for loans will increase substantially and the rigid demand will be released. In 2008, the total amount of new loans of financial institutions was controlled within 3.63 trillion yuan, which was reviewed and distributed quarterly. But the first quarter of 2008 will still be an important stage of inter-bank competition. According to the law, commercial banks generally focus on lending in the first half of the year. Due to the austerity policy at the end of 2007, the demand for loans is expected to soar in the first quarter of 2008. With the issuance of mortgage in the new year, rigid demand will be pushed up.
Where is the bottom line of housing prices in Shenzhen?
Price-limited housing shows the bottom line of the market, and the market is not far from the bottom line. The introduction of price-limited housing actually stipulates the lower limit of commodity house price, which cannot be lower than the price-limited housing, so the price-limited housing can be used as a reference standard for commercial housing prices. Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Land and Resources stipulates that the sales price of single-family housing within the transfer period shall not exceed 80% of the market evaluation price of commercial housing of the same period, same location and same type.
Price standard of price-limited house
Beijing
The price is 85% to 90% of the price of ordinary commercial housing in the same period, the same location and the same type, the same below.
Guangzhou
The price is 70% of the price of the surrounding homogeneous ordinary commercial housing.
Shenzhen
The price is 80% of the price of the surrounding homogeneous ordinary commercial housing.
The emergence of price-limited housing shows the bottom line of ordinary residential prices in the market. It can be inferred from the regulations of Guangzhou and Shenzhen that the price of price-limited housing is equivalent to 70%-80% of comparable commercial housing. If the price of comparable commercial housing is 10000 yuan/square meter and the price of price-limited housing is 8000 yuan/square meter, then the price of other comparable commercial housing cannot be lower than 8000 yuan/square meter, and the lowest price may only fluctuate between 80% and 90% (that is, 8000-9000 yuan/square meter). We don't know whether 80% or 90% of the current market price is the bottom, but we can see that the market is not far from the bottom line. Copyright Shenzhen Shilian Real Estate Consultant Co., Ltd.
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When is the best time to buy a house?
Studies at home and abroad have proved that the real estate market has periodic changes. Generally speaking, a complete real estate cycle includes four cycle stages: rising channel period, high consolidation period, falling channel period and low consolidation period.
Shenzhen now
① It is called the "rising channel period", that is, the above-mentioned "rising" stage: the market is in the rising period, but affected by excessive expectations, the rising trend of the market reality will deviate from the fundamentals and fluctuate upward, and a bubble will appear in a certain period of time. At this time, prices and quantities tend to rise one after another. Then the market enters the "high consolidation period", that is, the "overheating" stage: at this time, the most important signal is that the trading volume is shrinking. Although the price may still be rising, it has actually entered a stalemate period. After that, the market will enter the "downward channel period", that is, the stage of "policy suppression → wait and see → big transaction decline/small price decline": at this time, the change of trading volume depends entirely on the change of price. If the price does not fall, there will be no daily limit, which will extend the stalemate period, but the "downward channel period" will eventually make the price decline become the mainstream, and the market reality will begin to fall back, approaching the fundamentals again and falling below. When the price drop has made the reality fall to the lowest point, the market will enter the "low consolidation period", that is, the "industry consolidation" stage: the trading volume will tend to be stable, and there are signs of a slight rebound, and the price will begin to gain momentum and prepare to enter the next round of "rising channel period". (Source: Shi Lian Zhang Aiai, "Learn to swim in the market-guide our operation with market rules")
Similar to the experience of Shanghai real estate market under the policy control in 2005, Shenzhen also experienced these stages in 2007. Now, Shenzhen is moving from ③ to ④. By the third week of 2008, the average weekly turnover of first-hand houses and second-hand houses was around 550 sets, which tended to be stable; In the second week, the transaction price of first-hand houses dropped to 1 6028.3 yuan/square meter after1week, and rose to 14024 yuan/square meter in the third week, up 2.9% month-on-month, still dominated by customs transactions.
Therefore, the Shenzhen real estate market is currently in the next round of "rising channel period", which is the best time for buyers to buy a house.
Based on the above analysis, the World Federation does not think that the Shenzhen market will "collapse". On the contrary, the World Union believes that the current downturn in the Shenzhen market belongs to the self-adjustment and repair stage caused by the low tide of speculative demand. The ebb of speculative demand will make Shenzhen market more rational and healthy.
At the same time, rigid demand still exists with strong potential. In addition, the tight supply-demand relationship in Shenzhen real estate market is still difficult to substantially improve. It is expected that with the more rational and pragmatic pricing strategy of mainstream developers and the re-issuance of mortgage loans by commercial banks in 2008, the rigid demand will be re-ignited and stepped out of the wait-and-see situation, and the sales of Shenzhen real estate market will gradually pick up before the second quarter of 2008. The rebound in sales will support house prices. After the adjustment in the second half of 2007 and the first half of 2008, the housing price in Shenzhen is expected to rise again in the second half of 2008.
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Copyright 2007 World Alliance All rights reserved.
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