Wenhua Finance (Editor-in-Chief Li Zhiwei)-On Wednesday, stimulated by the strong rise in international crude oil prices, CBOT corn prices also rose sharply, approaching the high price of the year again, and the bullish atmosphere in the market continued. However, limited by government regulatory measures, the domestic corn futures market maintains a narrow adjustment pattern and the market is cautious. Investors' willingness to do more has not been significantly improved because of the strength of the US market. On Thursday, the contract price of C0805, the main corn in Dalian, rebounded to 1.753 yuan, which was blocked and finally closed at 1.742 yuan, only rising by 7 yuan, but the daily K-line continued to close. According to the latest monthly corn supply and demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Tuesday, it is estimated that the corn carry-over inventory in the United States in 2007/08 will be 65.438+79.7 billion pu, a significant decrease of 65.438+0 billion pu compared with last month's report. Because it is lower than the market forecast average of 65.438+0.879 billion Jin, it stimulates the corn futures market. Coupled with the strong rebound of international crude oil prices, the trend of CBOT corn futures prices continuing to rise is very obvious, and it is also possible to break through the previous high point and set a record high in the past decade. However, in sharp contrast to the strength of international corn prices, Dalian corn futures prices are still stagnant in the recent oscillation area, which is mainly affected by a series of regulatory measures taken by the government on domestic corn. First of all, restricted by the factors that the state controls corn exports to ensure domestic supply, China's corn exports fell sharply in June from 5438+065438+ 10. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, in June this year, China's corn export volume was130,000 tons, down by 50% compared with the same period last year. The decrease of corn export in China stimulated the international corn price, but suppressed the domestic corn price. Secondly, in order to ensure the grain market supply and stabilize the market price, the relevant state departments and units organized the first batch of central reserve corn auction sales on June 5438+February 65438+February 0/kloc-0. In this auction, the central reserve corn was 500,000 tons, but the actual transaction was 238 1 10,000 tons, accounting for 47.62%, and the average transaction price was 1.787 yuan/ton. The low sales rate reflects the cautious attitude of consumer enterprises and has a certain impact on the popularity of the futures market. At the same time, with the approval of the relevant state departments, Anhui Grain Wholesale Trading Market (with Shanghai, Jiangsu, Fujian and Guangdong sub-markets) will auction and sell 500,000 tons of central reserve corn in June 5438+February 65438+August. The news of the second auction of the central reserve has increased investors' worries that the adjustment market will be prolonged, and the lack of active buying makes it difficult for Dalian corn futures prices to follow the strength of the international market. Under the background that the country sells the central reserve corn through bidding, corn deep-processing enterprises have also begun to reduce the purchase price of corn, and the rumor that the tax rebate for corn deep-processing products may be cancelled has affected the market to be cautious about the medium-term rising space of corn prices. Generally speaking, the domestic corn futures price in the international market is bullish recently, but under the influence of the negative domestic market, it is still difficult for the domestic corn futures price to rise sharply. In particular, investors should pay attention to controlling the short-term risks caused by policy uncertainty when the country still has a variety of regulatory measures to take. After all, the dependence of China's corn consumption demand on the international market is still very low, which determines that the performance of domestic corn prices can coexist with the performance of the international market for some time. Da Rui futures information research and development department