The evolution of mainstream investment ideas in American stock market in the past 50 years: the cyclical investment ideas of value investment and growth investment originated from the most dynamic, innovative and developed American stock market. Although the development of American stock market has a history of more than 200 years, the real rapid development period of standardization is mainly after the promulgation of 1933- 1934 securities law. The pension system introduced after the war has effectively promoted the growth of institutional investors and greatly changed the capital supply and demand structure of the stock market. In 1950s, the sustained economic growth and the wealth effect of stock market investment jointly promoted the sustained rise of stock market index. In the following years, various new concepts and phenomena were born, and new things in the stock market emerged one after another. As the most influential institutional investor, the development of securities investment funds, especially open-end funds, has played an important role in promoting the popularization and innovation of rational investment concepts, optimizing resource allocation by guiding the market and capital flow, and promoting economic growth. With the evolution of global economic integration, various new investment ideas spread from the inner circle of the birthplace to the periphery. In the process of spreading to peripheral stock markets (Europe, Japan, emerging markets, developing countries, etc.). ), it is bound to collide with other investment ideas in combination with different market special conditions, and a new investment model will be born. The progress of Internet and communication technology has accelerated the spread of new investment ideas around the world. For most of the 20th century, the school of basic analysis has become the mainstream of the stock market in developed countries or regions such as Wall Street, and its two main branches are intrinsic value stock investment and growth stock investment. The former thinks that the main purpose of investors investing in stocks is to collect cash (dividends) every year, and the intrinsic value of stocks is the discount of future cash flows (cash dividends received by investors). The purpose of growth investors to buy stocks is mainly to obtain the price difference rather than cash dividends, provided that companies with good main income and profit growth in the past will continue to maintain good growth in the future. Historical experience shows that after the excessive enthusiasm of chasing high-growth stocks leads to final disillusionment, it will inevitably return to the old road of steady value investment, and the change of investment concept presents a cyclical law. Consistent with the industrial development cycle in different years, hot stocks with high growth rate in high-growth industries can be found everywhere in all periods of stock market history, such as railway stocks in19th century, steel stocks and automobile stocks in the early 20th century, aluminum stocks in the 1950s, electronics stocks and plastics stocks in the 1960s, oil stocks in the 1970s, biopharmaceutical stocks and real estate stocks in the 1980s, Asian tigers and internet stocks in the 1990s, and so on. Prosperous 1950s after World War II: Due to the crash of 1929- 1933, in 1930s and 1940s, small-scale individual stock investment was considered dangerous, and few individuals invested in stocks. The upsurge of individual holding common stock began in 1950s and 1960s, mainly because it was hard to believe that it would happen again (especially in the late 1950s). From 65438 to 0958, FRP boat stocks were hot commodities in the market at that time, which had many advantages of completely replacing wooden boats and catered to the leisure theme of the United States in the 1950s. Later internet stocks were similar to the stock boom of FRP ships in this period. "Electronic Craze" and the skyrocketing 1960s: Its notable feature is the popularity of company names with the suffix "trons", which is the frenzied period of increasing stocks and new shares. The upsurge of electronics industry was largely related to the space arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union at that time. Growth stocks refer to those stocks that are expected to get high returns and high growth rates, especially those of high-tech companies, such as some companies that produce semiconductors, klystrons, optical scanners and other advanced instruments. The stock prices of these industries soared because investors saw the strong market prospects of their products. Since 1960s, the traditional P/E ratio of 5- 10 times has been replaced by 50- 1000 times for many years. 196 1, the price-earnings ratio of data control companies is more than 200 times, while the price-earnings ratio of IBM and Texas Instruments, which are growing steadily, is more than 80 times. During this period, the solid basic theory with multiple of P/E ratio as the core and paying attention to future cash flow forecast gave way to the castle in the air theory, which paid attention to the psychological factors of investors and "bought high and sold high, followed the trend". In order to satisfy investors' endless thirst for stocks, 1959- 1962 issued more new shares than at any time in history. Like it. " In the late 1990s, companies named after "trons" sprang up like mushrooms after rain. The electronic frenzy came back on 1962, and a terrible sell-off finally broke out five months later. Growth stocks and blue-chip stocks were also involved in the plunge, exceeding the average decline of the broader market. After the stock market recovers from the turmoil and tends to be stable, the next wave of operation is the wave of corporate mergers and acquisitions. If investors' expectation of the company's high growth cannot be obtained through the concept of high growth or high technology, they need to create other new methods or concepts as a baton. Therefore, in the mid-1960s, experts called it the third M&A wave in the history of American industrial development. The main driving force of M&A wave in this period is that the merger process itself will lead to the increase of stock returns, and skills are financial or financial knowledge rather than the improvement of enterprise management level. During the period of 1968, the M&A wave of enterprises began to cool down significantly due to the lower-than-expected quarterly announcement income issued by the leading companies in this wave, and the market was in doubt. In the 1960s, in addition to the above concepts, other concept stocks were born in the market. Xerox is a typical case of concept stocks, and its revolutionary invention of xerography technology has attracted almost all fund managers with excellent performance. Later, this concept investment strategy developed to the point where any concept will do. The common problems of concept companies are too fast expansion, too much debt and out of control management. The company's business risks are high and its growth is uncertain. When the bear market of 1969- 197 1 came, the decline of concept stocks was bigger and faster than the increase. For many years after that, Wall Street stopped being superstitious about performance and advocated concepts. Just as the industry or economic development has its own cycle, the concept worship of the masses in the 1960 s returned to the starting point of the cycle after nearly ten years of baptism, advocating excellent growth stocks. In the late 1960s, with the continuous expansion of the number and scale of funds, the competition between open-end funds and Public Offering of Fund became increasingly fierce, and the public began to pay attention to the recent performance records of funds, especially whether the funds bought stocks with wonderful concepts and convincing history. Performance investment has become popular on Wall Street. The seventies dominated by beautiful middle-aged people: After buying small electronic companies and concept stocks in the sixties, fund managers and investors returned to rational and conservative principles and began to invest in blue-chip stocks with convincing growth records. Generally, dividends of such stocks continue to increase, and the total share capital is large (with good liquidity). People don't think these stocks will collapse like the speculative frenzy in the 1960s. People's general psychology is to wait for long-term gains after buying, which is called cautious action. The 50 fashionable stocks at that time mainly included IBM, Xerox, Kodak, McDonald's and Disney. People think that buying these growth stocks proved by history at any time is foolproof, which is called "the final decision" stock. In addition, buying blue-chip stocks can also bring institutional investors a reputation for prudent investment (see table 1). Roaring 1980s: It was a good year for bioengineering stocks, which also had many over-hyped stocks. It started with another wave of new shares in new fields, including biotechnology and microelectronics. 1983, a high-tech wave, is an excellent copy of the 1960s, only with a new name. The technological revolution has awakened people's illusion that high technology will completely change the future economic development and social life of mankind, and directly stimulated the recovery of concept speculation in the 1960s. Almost all the original new technology stocks were hot, and the new shares soared after listing. What conquered the concept stocks again was the revolutionary breakthrough of biotechnology based on genetic engineering. It was the advent of new anticancer drugs (and later anti-AIDS drugs) that promoted the craze for biotechnology and led to the emergence of new valuation methods specifically for Wall Street biotechnology companies. The end result is that the market itself will digest the big bubble it blows. From the mid-1980s to the late 1980s, most biotech companies lost 3/4 of their shares, and the market recovery of 1988 didn't help much. Exciting 1990s: The first half was the "Four Little Dragons of Asia" craze. At that time, the background was that, due to the domestic economic slowdown in the United States, fund managers turned their eyes overseas. Their exciting discovery of emerging markets and their expectation of huge growth potential, coupled with people's little understanding of the risks in this market, directly promoted the internationalization of stock investment-the "Asian Four Little Dragons" craze, which was later triggered by the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis from 65438 to 0997. From the second half of the 1990s to the present, the concept stocks of the new economy represented by the Internet have ebbed and flowed, which is still fresh in people's memory, and it has also experienced a complete process and ending from arrogance to panic and finally to collapse. Tracing back to the evolution history of American stock market investment ideas in the past 50 years, it is roughly carried out according to the following clues, which also contains some cyclical laws: electronic and semiconductor stocks (1960s)-blue chip stocks with excellent performance (1970s)-bioengineering stocks (1980s)-Asian Four Little Dragons and Internet stocks (1990s)-In each cycle, investors' evaluation styles and methods of securities play a key role in securities pricing, thus laying the foundation for. In the rising process of concept stocks, the basic theory of stable stocks based on intrinsic value investment succumbed to the theory of castles in the air, and with the help of the herd mentality and overreaction of the investing public, castles in the air looking forward to a better future reached its peak. After the collapse of concept stocks, the idea of the injured vulnerable groups and the investing public to pursue safety and stability is deeply rooted in people's hearts, and the intrinsic value as the psychological bottom line of stock investment value is unbreakable, thus overcorrecting and going to the other extreme, returning to the traditional industry with visible income growth and cash dividends, until a new and exciting concept appears in the next cycle. We find that the cyclical change of market investment concept is surprisingly consistent with the adjustment process of chip structure in the stock market. Only when the undervalued market chips (which will inevitably lead to a large number of selling value stocks in the market during the growth stock boom, and will inevitably lead to undervalued value stocks after a period of time) are gradually adjusted to more active and determined investors after the peak of the growth stock boom, and once the chip structure adjustment in the market is completed or the time is ripe, a new round of market hotspots or cycles will not be far off. This periodicity is logical in the stock market of any country or region, because it conforms to the interest contradiction or profit and loss structure of the zero-sum game in the stock market. We also find that funds guide the mainstream investment ideas in the market. Whether investing in emerging industries, high-growth emerging markets (internationalization wave) or outstanding domestic blue-chip stocks, capital is always at the forefront of economic development and reform, ahead of the economic cycle, accompanied by advanced industrial theory and management ideas. It is the driving force of capital and its high sensitivity to the investment field that makes capital always take the lead in finding the direction of flow, guiding social capital (resources) to the industries and companies with the highest return and the most long-term investment value, and automatically adjusting once encountering resistance, thus giving full play to the function of optimizing resource allocation in the securities market. Reference/article1/messages02/2315.html.