1 Economy in the shadow of crisis Since the crisis in 2008, the world economy has fallen into the longest crisis after World War II. The economic aggregate, trade and investment have shrunk dramatically, and experts are not optimistic about the near future. Some people even worry that they will fall into "long-term stagnation". At present, the Asia-Pacific economy is still under the shadow of crisis, and downward pressure and financial risks are lingering. In 20 15, the economic growth rate dropped from 2.9% in the previous year to 2.7%. It is predicted that there will be no improvement in 20 16 years, and the decline in 20 15/20 16 years will be more than 5% compared with the previous two years. As the largest economy, although the United States has taken the lead in getting out of the crisis and restoring economic growth, it lacks motivation and has an obvious slowdown trend, especially its economic policy, which has great uncertainty; China, as the second largest economy, is affected by many factors, such as slowing investment, declining trade and growth. The adjustment of its structure and development mode has entered the deep water area, especially the adjustment of its demand structure, which has a great impact on domestic and foreign markets. Japan's economy is still in a state of long-term basic stagnation. Although the Abe government has tried its best to release a number of arrows and tried to activate the growth momentum, it still has no effect; The economy of ASEAN region is greatly affected by the external situation, and the economic growth of most countries has slowed down. Originally, ASEAN entered a new stage of construction, which would generate new driving force, but due to the lack of effective measures, its internal vitality is still insufficient. Revitalizing the Asia-Pacific economy requires deepening opening up and cooperation. For a long time, the Asia-Pacific economy has built an interconnected and mutually promoting growth chain, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) has set the goal of realizing investment and trade liberalization and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region (bogor goals). However, in the face of new challenges, the cohesion of cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region has weakened. The United States led the Trans-Pacific Agreement (TPP) negotiations and formulated new rules, which disrupted the framework of regional coordination and cooperation and repeatedly introduced protectionist measures to damage the market. In East Asia, the negotiation of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) is under way and is expected to be completed by the end of 20 16, which may provide a new driving force for East Asian economy. In order to promote the process of Asia-Pacific integration, the FTAAP Agenda was put forward at the informal meeting of APEC leaders held in Beijing in 2004. However, the efforts to promote this process are insufficient, especially the Obama administration's efforts to promote TPP, and there is a clear lack of interest in other agendas. From this point of view, the knowledge and motivation to restart the Asia-Pacific open cooperation process are insufficient. However, in 20 16, the G20 leaders' meeting was held in China with the theme of "building an innovative, dynamic, coordinated and inclusive world economy". For the first time, "innovative growth mode" was listed as a key issue and a blueprint for innovative growth was formulated. At the first meeting of G20 coordinators, all parties agreed to set up an innovation working group to discuss and promote innovation issues to achieve results. This meeting is expected to help the Asia-Pacific economy out of the shadow of the crisis. On the morning of June 20th, 20 16, the Chinese and American navies held tactical maneuvers in the western Pacific. The picture shows seven Chinese and American naval vessels participating in the "Pacific Rim -20 1 6" joint military exercise, holding tactical maneuvers in the western Pacific. The drill was conducted by China Xi 'an warship, and several formations, such as single column, herringbone team, diamond team and sector alert, were drilled successively. 2 The worrying Sino-US strategic game Sino-US relations are the most concerned and worrying at present. In recent years, especially since 20 16, the strategic game between the two countries has been escalating, and there seems to be a trend of confrontation. Since the announcement of "Asia-Pacific Rebalancing" and "Return to Asia Strategy", the United States has made more and more big moves with China as its main opponent. In the economic field, the United States dominates TPP negotiations. US President Barack Obama publicly declared that the United States should lead the formulation of rules, and China should not lead the formulation of rules. The presidential candidates of both parties have vowed to impose sanctions on China once elected; In the security field, the United States sent a powerful naval and air force to demonstrate in the South China Sea, encouraging the Philippines to unilaterally file an arbitration lawsuit against China, wooing South Korea to deploy the Sadr system and upgrade the theater missile defense system; In response, economically, China accelerated the implementation of the free trade zone strategy, actively participated in and promoted RCEP negotiations, promoted the establishment of AIIB, and proposed the "Belt and Road Initiative"; In terms of security, the expansion of the South Island Reef and the holding of large-scale military exercises in the South China Sea and the East China Sea issued a severe warning to the deployment of Sadr in South Korea. Many people are worried that the escalation of the strategic game between China and the United States may lead to conflicts. If the confrontation between China and the United States escalates, especially conflicts, it will inevitably affect the entire Asia-Pacific region. There are many reasons why the United States is so aggressive towards China. Economically, its own huge crisis has made the United States feel the urgency and necessity of "strategic adjustment." Among them, the most urgent thing is that in the face of competition from emerging economies such as China, we must take the lead in formulating new rules and establish new competitive advantages by raising the threshold for others to enter the market; In terms of security, the rapid rise of China's comprehensive strength makes the United States worry that it will be excluded and endanger its dominant position. Therefore, on the one hand, more naval and air forces will be transferred to the western Pacific region, on the other hand, chaos will be created, and opportunities for active intervention will be obtained. For example, the tension between China, Japan, China, the Philippines and China and South Korea all has the shadow of the United States. Obviously, no matter in economy, security and regional relations, the United States regards China as the most important competitor and the most direct threat to American interests and status, which highlights the antagonism of American strategic design and behavior. Faced with such a situation, how do you view Sino-US relations? In reality, this kind of strategic confrontation has great risks. Once out of control or unexpected events occur, conflicts may break out. However, Sino-US relations are complex and multifaceted, and are influenced by many factors, including game confrontation, consultation and cooperation, nervousness and sitting down to talk and reach an understanding. China and the United States are two big countries with huge differences, contradictory strategic goals and interdependence. From this perspective, China and the United States have to face and deal with a new type of relationship between major powers. In fact, it is precisely for this reason that it is necessary and possible to promote the construction of a new type of relationship between major powers. The core content of the new-type relationship between China and the United States is "mutual respect, no conflict, no confrontation and win-win cooperation". China took the initiative. Although the American authorities have not publicly accepted it, it is actually clear, because it is also in the interest of the United States. Besides, there is no better choice. The Asia-Pacific region is the intersection of contradictions and interests between China and the United States. In this region, China and the United States do have different interests and operations. The United States should protect its position, circle and interests; China should expand its interests, open up its space and reconstruct its order. To this end, the United States should rebalance and China should break the containment of the United States. But China and the United States also have a basic understanding: the game is inevitable, but it also needs to seek space for participation. Therefore, we see that China and the United States, on the one hand, have tense relations, and on the other hand, sit down for strategic dialogue and exchange visits. Even in the field of military security, the two countries have not completely "shouted from a distance", with both high-level exchange visits and joint military exercises. The strategic game between China and the United States is not the whole relationship between the two countries, and Sino-US relations are not the whole development of the Asia-Pacific region. We should have a comprehensive understanding and countermeasures for Sino-US relations. In fact, the construction of a new type of big power relationship is to seek a balance in the game and cooperation. At the same time, various mechanisms have been established in the Asia-Pacific region, which have played a positive and balanced role in restricting the excessive behavior of the United States and building a platform for dialogue and cooperation between China and the United States. Therefore, on the whole, the will and conditions for a "new cold war" or a "hot war" between China and the United States are not available, and the dual-track orientation of game and cooperation will continue. On August 29th, 20 16, President Duterte of the South China Sea delivered a speech on National Heroes Day, and personally sent a request to Ambassador Zhao Jianhua of China to allow Filipino fishermen to fish in the disputed waters between the Philippines and China. The South China Sea dispute, which has been hotly debated, was originally a matter between China and Southeast Asian countries. However, due to various reasons, the South China Sea issue has been internationalized, and there has been a game of various forces, which is characterized by normalization and long-term. As the South China Sea is related to China's core (territory) and major (security) interests, with the improvement of its comprehensive strength, it will surely occupy a more and more dominant position. Under the new situation, China needs to do something and have stronger control over the situation in the South China Sea. Although China has increased its control not for hegemony, but to defend its due interests and promote the construction of a new regional cooperation order, it will inevitably lead to competition and struggle, and sometimes even a dangerous situation will arise because it involves the interests of other parties. The United States engaged in "returning to Asia" and "Asia-Pacific rebalancing" and chose the South China Sea as a strategic assault point. By preaching that China changed the hierarchical order and "dominated" Asia, the United States not only gained the right to speak, but also established its position as a "defender of order". Taking advantage of the strategic doubts and even fears of allies and other countries about China, the United States effectively uses the South China Sea issue to gain the "rationality" of expanding its actions, including military operations. Some countries that have disputes and contradictions with China also use the United States to put pressure on China, which is in line with the actions of the United States. In recent years, Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia, which are disputed between the South China Sea and China, have stepped up their efforts to deal with it, built a lot of buildings on the islands they occupy, demarcated their own exclusive economic zones and refused to block the China. When these countries were unable to directly confront China, they chose the following strategies: first, they held the occupied territory, and second, they intervened with the help of external forces. International public opinion tends to "sympathize with the weak" and often places China in a "deviant" position. The Philippines has taken a two-pronged approach, seizing the right to speak (bringing arbitration proceedings against China) and letting the United States intervene (providing military bases), but avoiding direct confrontation with China as much as possible militarily; Vietnam has the largest appetite. While strengthening the protection of the occupied territories, the countries of Rado intervened to form a United front to put pressure on China, but also avoided direct confrontation with China; While Malaysia has always adopted the strategy of "keeping a low profile and keeping a low profile", it has strengthened the development and utilization of the occupied islands while maintaining stable relations with China. Obviously, the main strategies of the parties to the dispute are: First, to maintain the status quo of territorial possession and not be broken by China; Second, pull external forces to restrict China's control of the sea area. The South China Sea issue has a long-term historical accumulation and a complex realistic foundation, involving the territorial and maritime rights and interests of the country's core interests. Not only do the interests and demands of the countries involved in the dispute overlap, but they also have sources of interests that are constantly being abandoned with countries outside the country. So it's hard to solve. In particular, the South China Sea issue has been internationalized and greatly influenced by external factors. On the issue of disputes in the South China Sea, China's position of peaceful settlement of disputes through negotiations and that of countries concerned can be supported by mainstream public opinion and politics in the international community. However, adhering to the position of "bilateral negotiations" will encounter practical obstacles, because all parties overlap in the control and demands of island reefs and sea rights. Therefore, in the future, we can consider advocating the dual-track principle of "bilateral negotiation and multi-party consultation", with the former as the main and the latter as the supplement, which is in line with the principle of "big dual track" advocated by China, that is, China negotiates directly with relevant countries and China cooperates with ASEAN to safeguard the overall situation. The South China Sea is the main channel for international shipping. Maintaining the openness, freedom and security of the South China Sea involves the interests of China and other countries, and it is in everyone's interest to avoid the escalation of disputes, especially wars. China should be a big country that provides the South China Sea countries and other interested countries with "public goods" for smooth navigation and navigation safety. On the one hand, this kind of "public product" includes providing strength and deployment for maintaining regional security, on the other hand, it includes facilities, equipment and information serving the region. For the former, while strengthening its own capacity building, China can also take the initiative to establish a security cooperation mechanism in the South China Sea. The China-ASEAN Code of Conduct for Parties in the South China Sea puts forward some areas that need to be better implemented; As the latter, China has announced that the facilities expanded on Nansha Island Reef will provide public services for all countries, and the lighthouses, tsunami prediction centers and hospitals are all open. At present, this public product has not really played its role, and people's commitment to China is still under observation. These products should be launched as soon as possible, and the number of public products should be greatly increased in the future, making them a model of open cooperation. Some institutions, such as hospitals, can recruit international medical staff to participate, and many aspects can be used as important topics and contents to promote China-ASEAN maritime cooperation and as a platform to build cooperation mechanisms in the South China Sea. The game and competition around the South China Sea issue will continue, but there is also a lot of room for manoeuvre. China's actions to safeguard national interests in the South China Sea should be closely linked with regional strategy and overall strategy, and grasp two overall situations, namely, the overall situation of peaceful development environment and the overall situation of cooperative relations with ASEAN. The South China Sea issue has become a hot topic, which has been escalated by the unilateral arbitration lawsuit filed by the Philippines with the Permanent Court of Arbitration and the strong intervention of the United States. Especially after the announcement of the so-called final award by the arbitral tribunal, people are worried that the situation will be further aggravated and even war may break out. However, since then, the conflict has not escalated, but has cooled down. In particular, the foreign ministers of China and ASEAN issued a joint statement on the full and effective implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, stressing that disputes should be settled by peaceful means through friendly consultations and negotiations between sovereign countries directly concerned, and calling on "other countries to respect the principles contained in the Declaration", without mentioning the arbitration results of the arbitral tribunal. The East Asia Summit did not attack China over the so-called arbitration results. Facts have proved that the overall situation in the South China Sea is still controllable and has a great understanding of maintaining regional stability. Strengthening the layout of the military and alliance system, Japan's revision of the peace constitution, especially North Korea's determination to become a nuclear power and enhance its missile launch capability, and the deployment of "Sade" by the United States in South Korea have intensified the dispute over the Diaoyu Islands between China and Japan and made the situation in Northeast Asia dangerous. The Korean Peninsula issue has become a hot spot among the current hot spots, and the risk of accidents has increased. After the end of the Cold War, the US government declared North Korea an "axis of evil", along with Iraq, Iran and Libya. The United States eliminated the rulers of Iraq and Libya, forcing North Korean leaders to speed up the development of nuclear weapons as a shield to protect the regime. China promoted the six-party talks aimed at eliminating North Korea's nuclear weapons and building peace on the Korean Peninsula, eased fierce confrontation and signed consultations. However, the basic policy of the United States toward the DPRK has not been greatly adjusted, and the DPRK has not really prepared to abandon its nuclear program. As a result, the agreement reached was abandoned, the United States continued to increase pressure on the DPRK, and the DPRK continued to upgrade its nuclear weapons level. In this way, the situation on the Korean peninsula is not only in trouble, but also forms a spiral escalation of the crisis. The United States asked North Korea to abandon its nuclear program first; North Korea, on the other hand, asked the United States to change its policy first. South Korean politics has turned from time to time, and now it has returned to the old road of relying on the United States to control North Korea. The tension and confrontation on the Korean peninsula will not threaten the United States, but provide it with operating space and a long-term foundation. From this perspective, the DPRK nuclear issue has become the reason and available tool for the United States to "return to Asia." What is worrying is that under increasing pressure (including sanctions, US-South Korea military exercises, etc. ), North Korea is more likely to take risks and act blindly, which increases the possibility of war in this life and has great danger of nuclear disaster. Therefore, China opposes North Korea's nuclear support, advocates denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, vigorously promotes the six-party talks mechanism, strives to achieve a soft landing on the peninsula, and seeks to build a peace mechanism in Northeast Asia. However, the root of the Korean Peninsula issue is the American policy and the North-South opposition, which greatly limits China's efforts. In fact, the US policy toward North Korea is not only hostile to North Korea, but also exists in its interest distribution, alliance system and influence on the Korean Peninsula and even the whole Northeast Asia, and there are long-term considerations on how to deal with the improvement of China's comprehensive strength. Therefore, it is not easy for the United States to change its course. From this perspective, it takes time to solve the Korean Peninsula issue. The first is to prevent chaos and war, seek a balance in a dangerous crisis, and create an environment of cooling, consultation and cooperation. However, it is difficult to create such an environment at present. The deployment of "Sade" by the United States in South Korea has brought about new changes in the pattern of regional relations, triggered the development variables of China-ROK relations, and increased the risk of conflict on the Korean Peninsula. The prospect of Sino-Japanese relations is still not optimistic. First, the struggle between the two countries around the Diaoyu Islands, the development of resources in the East China Sea and the improvement of security capabilities will continue. At the same time, Japan's political will to regard China as the main threat is still very strong, and its policy design and operation are also very targeted, which makes the contradiction with China go beyond bilateral relations. For example, Japan strengthened its support for the US strategy of returning to Asia, vigorously encouraged arbitration in the South China Sea, and used various occasions to shout "China threat", which cast a shadow over Sino-Japanese relations. In Northeast Asia, some regional cooperation mechanisms have been established for many years, such as the six-party talks mechanism. There is also a meeting of leaders of China, Japan and South Korea, which is difficult to play a role because of the stop-and-go influence of political relations. What is more active is the military alliance mechanism led by the United States and participated by Japan and South Korea. This situation is worrying, and people even worry that Northeast Asia will fall into a new confrontation between the United States, Japan and South Korea-China, Russia and North Korea. The author believes that such a large confrontation structure will not be formed. However, the lack of regional cooperation, consultation and coordination in Northeast Asia relations may make the situation out of control. Northeast Asia is China's main interest area, which makes China fall into the whirlpool of war many times. Therefore, resistance to chaos and war of resistance is the primary goal and direction of China's diplomacy in this region. In the future, China will make greater efforts in this direction. However, it takes two hands to make a ring. Peaceful cooperation requires multi-party cooperation and shared responsibility. In fact, in a region where interests are intertwined, risks are on the top, which often urges all parties to calm down and think and explore a way out of danger. Therefore, it is necessary to calmly observe the development of the situation in Northeast Asia, prevent excessive media hype, and encourage the situation to escalate out of control.