Although the Standard & Poor's 500 is a blue-chip index like the CSI 300, the Standard & Poor's 500 does not simply choose stocks according to the size of listed companies. The S&P 500 index does not limit the market value of the selected companies. In other words, the Standard & Poor's 500 has not only large companies (about 90%), but also many medium-sized companies (about 10%).
The selection criteria of these companies must be industry leaders. So the S&P 500 is a blue chip index with subjective judgment.
The ROE of constituent stocks is not only the leader of the industry, but also a hard indicator for being selected into the Standard & Poor's 500. One thousand points, the long-term ROE American Stock Institute is more likely to be selected as a constituent stock with better S&P index. This also leads to some differences in the valuation performance between the Standard & Poor's 500 and the general market value-weighted index.
Standard & Poor's 500 is the first country to track indexes and issue index funds. As early as 1992, the S&P 500 index fund appeared. The most famous S&P 500 index fund in US stocks is SPDR of State Street Bank, with the code SPY (US stocks generally use letters as codes).
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is also the index that tracks the most funds at present, with trillions of dollars invested in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, far exceeding other stock indexes in the United States. So many assets even bring the buying effect of constituent stocks: if a stock is selected in the Standard & Poor's 500, it will be bought by a large number of index funds after being selected, which will lead to a certain increase; If it is eliminated by the Standard & Poor's 500, it will also fall because of the relatively large sales volume in a short period of time.
Three Characteristics of Standard & Poor's 500
1. More "wider" basic index
Standard & Poor's 500 is a very good broad index fund. Compared with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Hang Seng and other indexes that we usually come into contact with, the S&P 500 is relatively more unified in industry ratio.
US stocks also follow the industry classification method of 10. We can see that in 10, information technology accounts for the highest proportion, reaching 19.29%, followed by finance, which accounts for 15.33%. Health care, daily consumption and non-daily consumption (optional consumption) also account for a good proportion.
Let's take a look at the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index again. The positioning of A shares is the same. Although it also includes 10 first-class industries, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is relatively serious, with finance accounting for 40%. Excellent industries such as information technology, medical care and daily consumption are underrepresented.
We mentioned in the previous industry index analysis that in the long run, medicine and daily consumption are the two best industries, with small periodicity, high free cash flow and good long-term stock returns; Optional consumption and finance are sub-optimal industries, but they can also outperform the market average. The leading stocks in the information industry will also be very good.
Other industries, such as materials and energy, are more cyclical, skyrocketing and plunging, and their long-term returns are not good.
In the Standard & Poor's 500, good industries account for 54%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 only account for 30%. This makes the S&P 500 relatively less cyclical, more stable and easier to achieve "slow cattle". You can compare the trend of the two in the same period. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 surged and plummeted, while the Standard & Poor's 500 was slow. The S&P 500 index is closer to the "bulls" we expected.
This is the first characteristic of S&P 500: S&P 500 is a broader and more stable broad-based index.
2. It represents the benchmark return of American stock market.
The second characteristic of Standard & Poor's 500 is that it serves as a market benchmark and reflects the average return of the market. In other words, if the return on investment of active fund managers or themselves is not comparable to that of the S&P 500, it is better to invest in S&P 500 index funds. Buffett also mentioned that if he dies, the remaining cash will buy the S&P 500 index fund, because the S&P 500 can get an average market return.
So what is the yield of the S&P 500?
The starting point of Standard & Poor's 500 is 10, starting from 194 1. Today's Standard & Poor's 500 is 2037. Excluding dividend income, Standard & Poor's rose more than 200 times in 1975, with an annualized rate of return of about 7%. Considering that the historical average dividend yield of the Standard & Poor's 500 is about 2-2.5%, the Standard & Poor's 500 has brought investors an annualized return of about 9% in the past 75 years.
In fact, this income is weaker than that of Hong Kong stocks and A shares in the same period. After all, the past 20 years have been the stage of China's economic rise, and the profit growth rate of listed companies is much higher than that of US stocks. However, it gives people the impression that there are many bull markets in the US stock market and many people making money. The reason is that the upward trend of the S&P 500 is relatively stable, giving people a feeling of being bullish.
3.
Dollar assets, diversifying RMB risks
As domestic investors, we also play a very important role in investing in the Standard & Poor's 500, that is, diversifying RMB risks.
On the one hand, the Standard & Poor's 500 is a dollar asset, on the other hand, the volatility of the Standard & Poor's 500 itself is much lower than that of A shares, and the correlation is not great. Therefore, holding some S&P 500 index funds can spread the risk of RMB depreciation and stock market fluctuation.
However, due to domestic foreign exchange restrictions, many QDII funds that invest in US stocks have suspended subscription. At present, we can realize the transition by buying ETFs that invest in US stocks in the market. Those who have the ability to directly invest in US stocks can buy them in foreign exchange.
However, the premise is that the valuation of the S&P 500 is worth investing: we can wait patiently for the S&P 500 to be worth investing before deploying.
When is the S&P 500 Index worth buying?
This is our greatest concern. When is the Standard & Poor's 500 Index worth buying?
Investment in the Standard & Poor's 500 is also a reference valuation indicator. For Standard & Poor's 500, the industry distribution is reasonable and the profit fluctuation is small, so it is more appropriate to use P/E ratio for valuation. We can look at the earnings chart of the S&P 500. 1998-99' s internet bubble and 2008-09' s economic crisis resulted in a short-term income slump, which was relatively stable most of the time, so it is suitable for valuation with P/E ratio.
Standard & Poor's 500 will also pay attention to choosing stocks with high ROE when selecting constituent stocks, so the P/B ratio can also be used as an auxiliary reference for Standard & Poor's 500.
The valuation performance of the Standard & Poor's 500 was quite different around the 1980s. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was undervalued in the 1970s, but overvalued from the late 1980s to 2000.
When analyzing this period of history, Buffett introduced that the first reason for the different performance of US stocks around the 1980s was the interest rate. 1964- 198 1 year, the interest rate of American long-term treasury bonds rose sharply, from 4% to 15%. The high interest rate inhibited the performance of the stock market, which led to the very poor performance of the American stock market during this period. Then it fell below 3.5% at 17, which pushed up the overall valuation of the stock market and began a long-term bull market for US stocks.
This explanation is quite reasonable. After all, "the interest rate of investment is like the gravity of an object." The higher the interest rate, the greater the downward traction. "
Another reason is the change in the proportion of the industry. Since 1980s, the information technology, medical care, consumption and other industries in the American stock market have gradually increased, especially the information technology industry. Thanks to the technology bubble in 1990s, the industry has made great progress, and it is still the industry with the highest proportion in the Standard & Poor's 500. Excellent industries have stable profits and small periodicity, and the corresponding valuation will be higher.
Low interest rate+excellent industries have become the main force, which makes the Standard & Poor's 500 not have a low valuation below 10PE in the 1970s since the late 1980s.
Can this situation last?
It will last for a long time to come. A very important reason why leading stocks in information technology, daily consumption, medicine and other industries are excellent is also the stability of demand. These industries will not change greatly in a short time. Therefore, this valuation feature of S&P 500 will continue for a long time to come.
Therefore, when we analyze the S&P 500, we need to treat the historical valuation in different periods differently.
High and low range of S&P 500
From the 1980s to the present, excluding the increase in P/E ratio caused by the sharp drop in profits, the average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 17 times; 16% of the time, which is below 14 times of the low valuation; 16% of the time, at a high valuation higher than 22 times. So we can invest in batches when the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is below 14 times, and sell it when it is above 22 times.
1998-99 and 2008-09, the S&P 500 experienced two sudden declines in earnings, and the P/E ratio was invalid during this period. For example, during the economic crisis in 2008, the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 suddenly soared. If you mistakenly think that the valuation is high at this time, it is actually wrong.
Under special circumstances, the price-to-book ratio can be used to assist.
Because the standard & poor's 500 has a good ROE, the corresponding P/B ratio is also relatively high. In the same period, the average value of PB is between 2.7 and 3 times, the underestimated area of PB is roughly below 2.3 times, and the overestimated area is roughly above 3.5 times. When the P/E ratio fails, the P/B ratio can be used to assist the valuation.
How do we invest in the S&P 500?
SPY is the first and largest S&P 500 index fund in the world, reaching 1000 billion USD. SPY is a good choice to invest in the S&P 500 in the US stock market.
By the way, praise the American index fund website. All kinds of valuation disclosure information are relatively complete, unlike in China, nothing is needed.
We can see that the current static P/E ratio of S&P 500PE is about 18.85, the P/B ratio is about 2.68, and the growth rate of earnings per share in recent years is about 10. 16%. These data are within the normal range, so you can continue to wait patiently.
Because QDII funds restrict foreign exchange transactions, domestic investors of Standard & Poor's 500 can now invest through Boss S&P 500ETF. Domestic investment of S&P 500 has to bear an extra part of exchange rate risk. If the US dollar appreciates against RMB in the future, there is a high probability that it will be earned, which will affect the income of our investment. This is a double-edged sword.
abstract
Compared with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, which accounts for a high proportion of domestic finance, the Standard & Poor's 500 is a more comprehensive and excellent index: the industry ratio is reasonable, the profit is stable, and the long cattle make most investors' income not bad. The reputation, maturity and stability of the Standard & Poor's 500 index are all to be learned by domestic indexes.
The current valuation of US stocks is in the normal range, but the United States has certain expectations of raising interest rates. Higher interest rates will suppress the performance of the stock market to a certain extent, which is good for us ~ we can wait patiently for US stocks to fall into our hunting area.
Standard & Poor's is an international authoritative financial analysis institution, which was founded by Mr. Poole on 1860. Standard & Poor's was formed by the merger of Poole Publishing Company and Standard Statistics Company in 194 1 year. Standard & Poor's provides investors with credit rating, independent analysis and research, investment consulting and other services. 1975 the SEC of the us securities and exchange commission recognized standard & poor's as a "nationally recognized rating agency" or "NRSRO". On 20th11April18th, Standard & Poor's downgraded the long-term sovereign credit rating outlook of the United States from "stable" to "negative", and kept the sovereign credit rating unchanged.
As a recognized standard in the field of financial investment, Standard & Poor's provides widely recognized credit rating, independent analysis and research, investment consulting and other services. Among the diversified financial services provided by Standard & Poor's, the Standard & Poor's 1200 index and the Standard & Poor's 500 index have become the benchmarks of global stock market performance and US portfolio index respectively. The company also provides credit ratings for more than 220,000 securities and funds around the world. At present, Standard & Poor's has become a world-class information brand and an authoritative international analysis institution.
The formula for calculating the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is as follows:
Standard & Poor's 500 Index = total market value of 500 companies/latest index divisor * latest index divisor is the benchmark value.