At the end of 20 19, soda ash futures went on the market, and 202 1 stepped out of the magnificent market. Specifically, the domestic soda ash market in 20 19 showed a downward trend, and the profits of soda ash manufacturers shrank sharply. In the traditional peak season of production in the fourth quarter, the number of maintenance manufacturers decreased, and the output of soda ash increased significantly. However, the downstream demand of light alkali is weak, the normal line of water-cooling flotation increases, and the soda ash market starts a deep decline mode. In the first half of 2020, the market was dominated by decline. After the Spring Festival, the recovery process of soda plants is obviously faster than that of downstream users. At the same time, overseas epidemic broke out, export orders shrank sharply, and the contradiction between supply and demand became prominent. The inventory of soda manufacturers continues to climb, and the market price moves down rapidly. In June, the price of soda hit a 10-year low, and the soda industry generally suffered losses. In the third quarter, the number of maintenance enterprises decreased, and the production capacity of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass expanded, resulting in a short-term mismatch between supply and demand. 202 1, the market price of soda ash is mainly rising. The newly added capacity of soda ash is limited, some capacity is eliminated, the total capacity is reduced year-on-year, the capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass is expanded, the consumption of heavy alkali is increased, and the price continues to rise. During the peak maintenance period from July to August, the tight price of goods rose and the increase was expanded. In September, the supply of goods decreased due to the maintenance of double control superposition, and the manufacturer property hoarding, the price increased obviously. 65438+ 10 was driven by coal, all kinds of power-limiting products fell back, and soda ash continued to accumulate. At the beginning of 2022, due to the expected steady growth, the overall supply pressure of soda ash was not great, and the demand for glass replenishment brought a wave of soda ash rise.
Brief introduction of soda ash
Soda concept
Soda Soda, also known as soda, is mainly composed of sodium carbonate (Na2CO3). Sodium carbonate is a white and odorless powder or particle at room temperature, which has water absorption. When exposed to air, it will gradually absorb water and form lumps. Sodium carbonate is easily soluble in water and glycerol, and 49.7 grams of sodium carbonate can be dissolved in 100 grams of water. Sodium carbonate belongs to sodium salt, and its aqueous solution is alkaline (pH= 1 1.6), which has certain corrosiveness and can be decomposed into sodium oxide and carbon dioxide at high temperature. Long-term exposure to the air will absorb water and carbon dioxide and generate sodium bicarbonate (baking soda). Sodium carbonate can react with acid, salt and alkali respectively: it reacts with acid to produce sodium chloride and carbonic acid, and unstable carbonic acid is immediately decomposed into carbon dioxide and water; React with calcium salt and barium salt to produce precipitate and new sodium salt; It reacts with alkali such as calcium hydroxide and barium hydroxide to produce precipitate and sodium hydroxide, which will be used to prepare caustic soda (sodium hydroxide) in industry, commonly known as causticization.
Soda is mainly divided into light soda ash (abbreviated as light soda ash) and heavy soda ash (abbreviated as heavy soda ash) according to different densities, which mainly exist in different physical forms: light soda ash has a density of 500-600kg/m3 and is a white crystalline powder; The density of heavy alkali is 1000- 1200kg/m3, which is white and fine in texture. Compared with light alkali, heavy alkali has the characteristics of firmness, large particles, high density, low hygroscopicity, difficulty in caking, flying and good fluidity. Soda can be divided into industrial soda and edible soda according to different uses. According to the different chloride content, soda ash can be divided into ordinary alkali, low salt, ultra-low salt and ultra-low salt. Mass fraction of common alkaline sodium chloride ≤1.20%; The mass fraction of low salinity sodium chloride is less than or equal to 0.90%; The mass fraction of ultra-low saline-alkali sodium chloride is less than or equal to 0.70%; The mass fraction of ultra-low salt sodium chloride is less than or equal to 0.30%.
Second, soda ash process and cost
Introduction of soda production technology
The production processes of soda ash mainly include combined alkali method, ammonia alkali method, natural alkali method and ADC foaming agent co-production method. In 2020, the production capacity of the four major production processes will be 48.8%, 45.2%, 5. 1% and 0.9% respectively. The finished products are mainly light alkali and heavy alkali, which can be obtained by hydration or extrusion of light alkali.
Source: Open data collation, Meierya Futures.
The raw material of trona method is mainly trona ore, which has simple production process and low cost. At present, only a few countries in the world, such as the United States, China, Turkey and Mexico, have discovered trona minerals, among which the United States, Turkey and China are the main producers of trona. The production of trona in China is mainly concentrated in Henan and Inner Mongolia.
The raw materials of ammonia-alkali process are mainly crude salt and limestone. Sodium bicarbonate (baking soda) is obtained by absorbing carbon dioxide from ammonia brine, and then sodium bicarbonate is calcined to obtain light alkali, which is converted to heavy alkali. The main advantages of ammonia-alkali process are high product quality and low salt content, which is suitable for large-scale continuous production, and the by-product ammonia can be recycled. The disadvantages are single product, low utilization rate of raw salt, and environmental pollution caused by waste liquid and waste residue.
Combined alkali method, also known as Hou Shi alkali method, is improved on the basis of ammonia alkali method. Its upstream mainly consists of crude salt and synthetic ammonia. Through the combined cycle production of "once adding salt, twice absorbing ammonia and once carbonizing" with the synthetic ammonia plant, two products, soda ash and ammonium chloride, are produced simultaneously by using NH3 and CO2 from the synthetic ammonia plant. Combined alkali method overcomes the shortcomings of ammonia-alkali method, greatly improves the utilization rate of raw salt, saves fuel, raw materials, energy and transportation costs, and avoids the discharge of a large number of waste residue and waste liquid. Its by-product ammonium chloride can also be used as nitrogen fertilizer, battery manufacturing, electroplating and printing and dyeing.
Production cost of soda ash
Domestic soda enterprises mainly include the following six costs:
(1) Cost of raw materials and main materials: raw salt and limestone as raw materials, carbon dioxide and synthetic ammonia as auxiliary materials.
(2) Fuel and power costs: including electricity, steam, heavy oil, natural gas, thermal coal and other costs.
(3) Wages and welfare expenses: wages and welfare expenses of personnel such as soda production management.
(4) Workshop expenses: refers to the expenses of various materials consumed in the normal production of the workshop, including depreciation expenses, repair expenses and other miscellaneous expenses of fixed assets.
(5) Deduction expenses of associated products and by-products: expenses of associated products and by-products that need to be deducted during soda production.
(6) Enterprise management fee: refers to all expenses incurred by the enterprise for managing and organizing the production of the whole plant.
Production cost of ammonia-alkali process: At present, the domestic production cost of soda ash by ammonia-alkali process is generally 1.25- 1.80 yuan. Among them, the procurement cost of raw materials (raw salt and limestone) accounts for about 40-50% of the total cost, coal accounts for 30-35% of the total cost, the total manufacturing cost exceeds 90%, and the rest accounts for less than 10%.
Production cost of combined soda process: soda ash and ammonium chloride are produced by combined soda process, and the ratio is 1: 1.0- 1.2. Usually, based on the output of soda ash, the total cost of "two tons" combined soda process is calculated first, and then the cost of ammonium chloride is deducted proportionally to get the cost of soda ash. At present, the "double ton" cost of China's combined soda process is 2100-2,500 yuan, and the cost of soda ash accounts for 75%-80% of the double ton cost, so the cost of soda ash production by combined soda process is generally1500-2,000 yuan/ton.
Production cost of trona process: the production cost per ton of trona process in China is 1300- 1400 yuan. The cost includes a series of fixed costs, such as carbon dioxide, coal, trona mining expenses, mineral resources compensation fees, production catalyst addition, labor costs, equipment loss, environmental protection facilities and so on.
Third, the supply of soda ash
Capacity and output of soda ash
The global soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in Northeast Asia, North America and Europe, among which China is the largest soda producer in the world, accounting for about 40% of the global soda production capacity. The soda production in the United States and Turkey is dominated by natural soda process, which has obvious cost advantages, while the domestic natural soda only accounts for about 5%. Domestic soda ash production capacity is mainly distributed in North China, Central China and East China. Jiangsu, Henan, Qinghai, Shandong and Hebei are the major soda production provinces in China, with Jiangsu accounting for 17.5%, Henan accounting for 16% and Qinghai accounting for 15. 1%.
China soda ash industry started from the establishment of 19 17 Tianjin Li Yong soda plant to the implementation of 1953 "five-year plan". The capacity and output of soda ash in China have been developing continuously, and the production processes are mainly from combined soda to combined soda, ammonia soda and trona. In the early 1990s, China ended its long-term dependence on imports and gradually became a net exporter of soda ash. Since 2003, the capacity and output of soda ash in China ranked first in the world, and the growth rate of supply-side reform capacity slowed down in 20 16, reaching a record high in 20021year. Up to 202 1, China's soda production capacity is 34.05 million tons, and the output is 29130,000 tons.
There are 4 1 soda production enterprises in China. Among them, there are 25 enterprises adopting the combined alkali process, most of which have a production capacity of 600-10.2 million tons, mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Henan, Hubei, Sichuan and Chongqing. There are 12 ammonia-alkali production enterprises, and the production capacity of most enterprises is higher than 1 10,000 tons, mainly distributed in Qinghai, Jiangsu and Shandong. There are 3 natural alkali production enterprises, including 2 in Henan and 2 in Inner Mongolia 1. Ningxia Risheng ADC foaming agent co-production mode is only 1 species.
The production capacity of soda ash industry in China is relatively concentrated, with 1 10,000 tons (including 1 10,000 tons) and 13 manufacturers, and their cumulative production capacity is 210.2 million tons, accounting for 63.9%; There are 12 manufacturers with a production capacity of 600,000-900,000 tons, with a cumulative production capacity of 7.9 million tons, accounting for 23.8%; There are 16 manufacturers with a production capacity below 600,000 tons, with a cumulative production capacity of 4.07 million tons, accounting for only 12.3%. There are four production groups in China soda ash industry, namely Tangshan Sanyou, China Salt Industry, Jinshan Chemical Industry and Yuanxing Energy, which account for 10.3%,1.8%, 9.9% and 5. 1% of the national total production capacity respectively, totaling over 35%.
From the perspective of new capacity increase, the planned capacity in 2022 is about 6,543.8+0.4 million tons, but the total capacity of Debon and Jinshan Chemical in Jiangsu Province is 6,543.8+0.0 million tons. It is expected that the output will increase in the first quarter of 2023, that is, in 2022, and the actual output is limited. In addition, the natural alkali of Yuanbo Yingen Chemical Industry (acquired by Yuanxing Energy) in Inner Mongolia is also expected to be put into use.
Commencement and maintenance
Seasonally, soda ash is similar to other chemicals, and the annual operating rate is higher from 165438+ 10 to the following year's 65438+ 10. At this stage, the monthly output of soda ash will be the highest in the whole year. Because soda production is an exothermic reaction, maintenance is usually arranged in summer or during the Spring Festival, when there are more downstream shutdowns and the demand is not strong. Ammonia-alkali overhaul usually takes 7- 10 days, and major maintenance is stopped every 1-2 years. After overhaul, it is necessary to restart two sets of circulating equipment (ammonium chloride and soda ash) in turn, which usually takes 10-20 days. Compared with the ammonia-alkali method, the overhaul time of the combined alkali method is longer, and the combined alkali enterprises will shut down for overhaul on a large scale every year. The production process of natural alkali method is simple, and it takes about 10 days to overhaul once a year. From the inventory point of view, if other chemicals are similar, they will be stocked before the Spring Festival and will start to go to the warehouse around March after the holiday. In 2020, due to the epidemic, the time to go to the warehouse will be delayed. In 2022, soda ash is expected to be put into storage around March.
Fourth, the demand for soda ash.
Soda soda ash is an important basic chemical raw material, which is widely used in building materials, chemical industry, metallurgy, textile, food, national defense, medicine and other fields. In the field of building materials, soda ash is one of the main raw materials of flat glass; In the chemical field, soda ash is widely used to make sodium silicate (sodium silicate, water glass), sodium bicarbonate (baking soda), sodium fluoride, dichromate and other products; In metallurgical field, soda ash is used as smelting cosolvent, flotation agent and steel-making desulfurizer. In the textile field, soda ash plays the role of water softener in the textile production process; In the field of food processing, soda ash can be used as a pasta additive to play the role of neutralizer, leavening agent, buffer and dough improver, and can also be used as an auxiliary additive in the production of monosodium glutamate and soy sauce. In addition, soda ash is also widely used in environmental desulfurization, pharmaceutical products, tanning, paper making and so on. High-end soda ash can also be used to make kinescope glass shells and optical glass.
In the application field of soda ash in China, edible soda ash accounts for 4%, and recidivists are used in food industry, belonging to; Industrial alkali accounts for 96% and is used as raw material or auxiliary agent in the production process. In industrial production, soda ash is widely used in flat glass, inorganic salts, daily glass, detergents and printing and dyeing industries. There are clear requirements for the use of light and heavy alkali in the downstream industry of soda ash, and the phenomenon of mixing light and heavy alkali is rare. In the downstream industry of soda ash, the flat glass industry is a big consumer of heavy alkali, while the daily glass, inorganic salts, washing and other industries mainly consume light alkali, while the daily glass field mainly uses heavy alkali, and a few enterprises use a certain amount of heavy alkali.
Glass
Heavy alkali is mainly used for flat glass. According to the production cost, one ton of glass needs an average of 0.2 tons of heavy alkali. Since 20 15 years, the annual demand of soda ash for flat glass has always remained above100000 tons. In recent years, the production capacity of float glass shows a slight growth trend. 20 16 was boosted by the recovery of the real estate market, the supply and demand environment improved, and the industry profits increased substantially. From 20 17 to 20 18, the growth rate of float glass production capacity remained high. Environmental factors caused some production lines of Shahe 20 19 to stop production, and the growth rate of float glass production capacity dropped to a low level. . In 2020, the flat glass industry will consume 2000 tons of heavy alkali 1 1.62 million tons, up by 2.6% year-on-year. The overall profit of 202 1 flat glass industry is still acceptable, and the start-up is at a high level in recent years, and the output exceeds 1 100 million weight boxes.
Daily glass
Household glass includes bottle glass, utensil glass, art glass, instrument glass, medical glass, thermos glass, electric light source and lighting glass. In recent years, the demand for light alkali for daily glass in China has increased steadily. The demand for soda ash has increased in other years, except for 20 15, when the output of daily chemical glass enterprises decreased due to environmental factors, the demand for soda ash decreased.
At present, the daily-use glass industry in China is transitioning from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage. Compared with developed countries, the application scenarios of daily glass in China residents' daily life are still few, and the average price of daily glass in China is still low. With the improvement of residents' consumption level and consumption structure, the daily glass industry will still show a long-term good development momentum in the future. From the perspective of market structure, there are barriers to entry, technology, market barriers, capital and brand in China daily-use glass industry. Although there are many enterprises in the daily glass industry in China, they are mainly small and medium-sized enterprises, and their products are mainly low-grade series. The source of customers is unstable, and they largely rely on low prices to occupy market space, which makes the industry concentration low.
Photovoltaic glass
20 16-2020, China's photovoltaic glass production capacity will increase year by year, and the photovoltaic glass production capacity will increase obviously in 2020. According to statistics, there are currently 23 1 photovoltaic glass production lines in China. Since the fourth quarter of 20265,438+0, no new production capacity has been put into production temporarily, and the ignition has been delayed a lot. After March 20021year, the price of photovoltaic glass dropped sharply, and the energy consumption index of local governments may tend to tighten under the background of "double carbon". At present, the possibility of delaying the production of subsequent production lines is not ruled out, and the production capacity progress in 2022 needs to be continuously observed. On the whole, considering that photovoltaic glass will be put into production this year and next, the growth rate of output in the later period may decline.
Other requirements
China's alumina output resumed growth after falling in 20 19 years, and reached the highest value in recent years in 202 1 year. In 20021year, the national alumina output was 77.475 million tons, up 5% year-on-year. The top ten provinces and cities in China are Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Chongqing, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and Jiangxi. In the process of alumina production, light alkali is used as raw material in sintering process and caustic soda is used as raw material in Bayer process. At present, Bayer process is mainly used in domestic alumina industry, and only some factories in Shanxi and Chongqing maintain the coexistence of the two methods. In recent years, the demand for alumina light alkali has been growing, mainly due to the sharp rise in the price of caustic soda. In order to reduce the cost, some devices were changed from Bayer process to sintering process. However, considering that the sintering process is difficult to develop, the demand for soda ash in alumina is limited.
Synthetic detergents are in the form of powder, liquid, solid or paste. It is a washing product made of surfactant and various additives. The data shows that in 20021year, the output of synthetic detergent in China reached103.77 million tons, down 6.4% year-on-year. In recent years, China's detergent industry has developed rapidly, and its application scope covers many fields such as daily chemicals, washing, pesticides, textiles, petroleum, etc., and continues to expand into more new technical fields. In the future, the demand for soda ash in detergent industry will remain at a relatively stable level.
Sodium silicate is widely used in all sectors of the national economy. Industrial sodium silicate is divided into two categories: liquid sodium silicate is mainly used to make adhesives, fillers, chemical raw materials, preservatives and additives; Solid sodium silicate is mainly used to make liquid sodium silicate. In industry, liquid sodium silicate is called water glass and solid sodium silicate is called sodium silicate. Sodium silicate is generally used in civil engineering.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) soda ash import and export and trade pattern
Chunjian import & export
China is a net exporter of soda ash. Since 20 10, the average annual net export of soda ash in China is 6.5438+0.524 million tons, of which the average annual export is 6.5438+0.652 million tons and the average annual import is only 6.5438+0.28 million tons. China soda ash is mainly exported to South Korea, Indonesia, Nigeria, Vietnam, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia and other countries. The export ports of soda ash are mainly Nanjing Port, Qingdao Port, Tianjin Port and Jinan Port, and the export volume of these four ports accounts for more than 95%. The main importers of soda ash in China are the United States and Turkey, and the fluctuation of import volume is mainly affected by the price difference between domestic and foreign soda ash. The export trade volume accounts for about 12% of the global trade volume of soda ash, and export is only a means to adjust the balance between supply and demand in the domestic market in stages.
Domestic trade pattern
The sales modes of soda ash industry in China are direct selling, consignment and distribution. Direct selling is the most commonly used way to sell soda ash. Soda manufacturers directly deal with the downstream, and many direct customers are required to "pay", which ensures the stability of soda sales and procurement and reduces the communication cost. Consignment means that soda manufacturers hand over a certain proportion of supply to traders, who do not keep inventory and bear the risk of price fluctuation. Distribution refers to a domestic chemical trading enterprise that manages multiple chemical varieties, distributes multiple brands of soda ash at the same time, takes goods wholesale, manages inventory according to market conditions and is responsible for its own profits and losses. At present, light alkali is mainly sold on a commission basis, supplemented by direct sales; Because the demand for heavy alkali is large and concentrated, direct selling is often used.
The main producing areas and sales areas of soda ash in China are not consistent. The five major provinces and cities in China are Qinghai, Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong and Chongqing, and the total amount of soda ash transferred is about130,000 tons. Net transfer to 19 provinces and cities, the top five are Guangdong, Anhui, Fujian, Zhejiang and Hunan, and the total amount of soda ash transferred is about 6 million tons. The transfer status of soda ash in Qinghai and Henan is obvious; However, due to the new industrial capacity constraints, Guangdong, Fujian, Guangxi and Northeast China will remain the main importers of soda ash in China.