First, the Fed's interest rate hike does not necessarily drive developed countries into the interest rate hike cycle, thus pushing up the global interest rate level. Britain, South Korea and other countries generally follow the pace of the Fed's interest rate hike, while Japan, Germany and other countries did not completely follow the Fed's interest rate hike cycle after 2000, and currency cycle misalignment often occurred among developed countries.
Second, the Fed's interest rate hike => the appreciation of the US dollar => the capital outflow of other countries. Under this logic, the sharp appreciation of the US dollar may indeed trigger a sharp flow of international capital and even a currency crisis. But the premise is that the dollar appreciates, and the Fed's interest rate hike has never been a sufficient condition for the dollar to appreciate. The first logical chain cannot be deduced.
Third, during the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, the valuation of US stocks basically declined, but at the same time, except for a few cases (1973 and 1987), the S&P 500 index rose. Behind this is the decline in corporate profit growth over valuation during the interest rate hike cycle.
Fourth, the performance of major global assets in previous interest rate hike cycles: interest rates. Before 2000, long-term interest rates in various countries generally rose. After 2000, during the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, long-term interest rates in many countries fell. Commodities, including crude oil, gold and industrial metals, are rising in most cases. The rising probability of stocks is greater than the falling probability, especially after 2000. In the exchange rate and interest rate hike cycle, the US dollar index mostly goes down.
5. According to the current market expectation, after raising interest rates four times this year, the federal funds rate may reach about 1.0%, and the subsequent high point may be 2. 1% to 2.5%. Referring to the past historical experience, the high interest rate of US 10-year treasury bonds is also expected to be around 2.5%. According to this interest rate, the ERP valuation of US stocks is still lower than the average level since 1950s, so it is unlikely that systemic risks will occur.
Six, domestic liquidity can be maintained for a long time. As for the change of interest rate spread, it will lead to the depreciation pressure of RMB exchange rate, which is a bit worrying. The interest rate difference is only a small part of the reason that affects the exchange rate. If inflation in the United States is not contained, it will lead to a continuous increase in interest rates. On the contrary, the RMB is more likely to appreciate.
7. The recent A-share adjustment is greatly affected by short-term disturbances such as investor sentiment. Otherwise, there is no reason to think that the so-called "global liquidity tightening" only affects the stock market, while the interest rate on the fixed income side is still hitting a new low. Short-term disturbances such as emotions are, in the final analysis, a random walk variable with a mean value of 0, and will eventually return to the mean value. Since it can go down at 5438+ 10 in June, it can also go up in February.