The decline of liquor is reasonable, and the main reason for the decline of liquor is that it has risen too much.

If you want the second reason, from the valuation point of view, the PE of liquor is 70-80 times higher, so the value needs to return, and it is normal for liquor stocks to fall.

In addition, don't worry about other people's friends' heavy liquor. Most of the small partners who dare to hold heavy liquor were held a year ago or two years ago. For them, a short-term decline of 20-30% will do no harm at all. At least the Maotai held by friends at the cost of 200 yuan will drop by another 50%, and there will be about 1.200. These friends still have six times the income.

As for when liquor will fall and stabilize? A drop of 50% or 70% is normal. At present, from the high point of view, the decline of most liquor is still around 30%. For example, Jiugui Liquor dropped from a high level, from 232. 18 to the current 140 yuan, with a drop of about 40%. Fang Shuijing decreased from 107 to about 70 now, with a decrease of about 30%, and Shanxi Fenjiu decreased from 464 to 339. Maotai, the brightest star, dropped from 2627 to around 2 180, a drop of about 20%. I won't list the others one by one.

Therefore, from a high point of view, a 30% drop in liquor is only a normal adjustment, even if it drops by 30%, it is still expensive. Even if it falls by 50%, it is not cheap for most liquor stocks, and it may be barely valuable for a few wines. The price of more wine after a drop of 70% can be considered as a reasonable price. If you are unlucky, plus A shares will fall too much, it is not too unexpected to fall 80% from a high level.

For liquor, there are two kinds of people who don't escape now. One is a real long-term investor who doesn't care about price fluctuations. Just like 200 people holding Maotai, no matter how it falls, he still earns a lot of money. Second, some small pieces, high quilt cover, good luck, these will be cut sooner or later. By the way, there is also a guy (fund) who is not a person. They don't care. Anyway, drought and flood guarantee the harvest.

For how to operate liquor, the rebound of most liquor stocks is the time to sell!

There are three main reasons for the continuous decline of liquor funds: first, the valuation is too high, resulting in differences in group funds; Second, the short-term increase is too high, and the technical side needs to be adjusted and repaired; Third, the fermentation of public opinion, whether it is the approval of the fund group or the dispute between Maotai academicians, are all factors that trigger the avalanche of liquor in the short term! But overall, although the varieties holding funds (including liquor) have been knocked down temporarily, it is still the most worthwhile investment for these good companies to extend the time period, but it will take some time to unify their knowledge! As for the follow-up operation, I will give you some pictures to talk about my personal views:

First of all, 70 times Maotai is really my first encounter!

Maotai has risen to a maximum of 2627.88 yuan, and the corresponding price-earnings ratio is as high as 70 times. To be honest, it's really the first time I've seen Maotai with such a high valuation for so many years. This is also the case that foreign funds have gradually reduced their positions, and at the same time, the funds in the market have also begun to move south. After all, the valuation of good domestic companies has been high, and it is also a normal operation method for fund managers to adjust their positions to eliminate the depressed valuation of Hong Kong stocks. It's just that for some funds with hindsight, the latter is more of a kind of trampling, a vicious circle of continuous adjustment-redemption of the basic people-redemption of the fund manager-further decline of the stock price! Here, I advise you to remember one sentence, that is, risks are rising, but what about opportunities? It's all falling out Whether it is stock or fund investment, we can't avoid this law.

Second, the overall correction of the liquor sector is about 20%, and the adjustment may not be a bad thing!

As the old saying goes, happiness depends on misfortune, and misfortune lurks. Is it similar to the above sentence? Back to the topic, the opportunity is falling out, especially after the holiday, so many "Japanese bases", for off-exchange funds, the decline is actually a better opportunity to open positions with low absorption. From a technical point of view, the liquor index is currently in a four-wave adjustment, and this wave is obviously an empty adjustment. Up to now, the overall retracement is close to 20%, and the probability of buying near the long-term trend line is high.

However, it should be noted that because the four waves are adjusted on the basis of space, it is estimated that there will not be much premium space between the five wave highs and the three wave highs! The most important thing is that the first phase of the rise came to an end after the Five Waves left. If the rise of five waves is regarded as a big wave, then the latter will enter the second wave level with great probability. Although the probability of this sorting is high and wide, it is more complicated for the next operation.

First of all, it is not suitable for cutting meat here, and the space adjustment has basically been released; Secondly, if you charge a counter-package zhongyang line in the long-term trend line, you can consider the cost of covering positions and diluting positions; Finally, after the five waves hit a new high, if all the funds you hold are liquor, you may have to deal with it by selling high and sucking low, because if you adjust the level of the two waves, there will be basically no good market after this wave of rebound this year. It may be better to take the initiative between the new high and the current low, otherwise many friends should be unable to redeem after several roller coasters.

Personally, I think there are several reasons for the decline of liquor plate:

First: it is mainly because it has risen too much in the previous period. Kweichow Moutai, the representative of liquor stocks, has never been adjusted back since it was more than 2065 438+06 200 yuan, and it has soared all the way, more than ten times, and other stocks in the sector have also soared. Without the assets that have been rising since ancient times, the liquor market in a specific environment can't escape the fate of falling back to its original shape.

Second: Ye Cheng Fund beat Yi Fund. In 2020, due to the epidemic situation, it is necessary to release water to stimulate the economy, resulting in an increase in liquidity and a rise in the stock market. Because of the rising stock market, more people pay attention to funds, and the number of people buying funds has increased significantly. According to statistics, in 2020, the proportion of retail investors in the stock market has dropped from more than 80% to about 50%. Fund managers manage a lot of money. Unlike retail investors, they can only buy core assets with good performance. If the liquor sector meets this condition, the fund will hold liquor, and the more it holds, the higher it will make money. The more people buy funds, the more funds will enter the market, forming such an unsolvable cycle. However, when it rises to a certain height, fund managers are also afraid. First, no one can take over the quotation and retail investors can't afford it. Second, such an increase is only wealth on paper, and there is no bag to be safe. So, we have to sell it. As soon as it is sold, the most terrible collapse will happen. The more it sells, the more it falls, and the more funds are redeemed. Can only continue to sell, and eventually lead to a big drop.

Third, the unreasonable surge of liquor plate is not in line with the will of the country. China and the United States are big countries competing, and there is a gap between China and the other side in scientific research and development. Why? As R&D of science and technology needs a lot of capital investment, and there is no profit in the short term, many science and technology enterprises have difficulty in financing. For this reason, the state has set up a scientific and technological innovation board and reformed the registration system, hoping that scientific and technological enterprises will speed up listing and conduct research and development in the stock market. The stock market is heating up, and so are funds. While funds are crazy about holding consumer stocks such as liquor, liquor can't promote the country's scientific and technological progress, let alone the country's economic development. This is also the reason why the national mainstream media said that the fund holds shares. The country does not want this to happen.

Personally, I think this round of liquor plate decline is not a short-term "diving", but a continuous decline, with an estimated decline of more than 50%. If Maotai falls by 50% again, its share price will still be more than 1000, ranking first in the two cities, so it will still fall.

Above, my humble opinion.

Attach a very meaningful funny video:

Very simple

1, it rose too much before, and now it has to be adjusted back, just like a person who has eaten delicacies for a year has to eat vegetables for several days.

2, the academician of liquor is fierce, which has aroused a little public anger, and it is good in the short term.

How?

1, if you have money, increase your position, not all at once, but slowly.

2. If you have no money, just manage it. When you come back for a period of time, you will understand what value investment is and what is the power of time.

The above questions and answers are easy to understand, and there are no expert terms.

The increase of liquor fund is too high, which leads to profit selling, and all those bought in the early stage make money. If the increase is so high, it is always safe to sell some and take them back to the bag, and it is normal to fall for several days in a row. As for when it will stabilize, you have to wait for the profit-taking disk to get back some of the proceeds. When it stops, the liquor will stop taking profits and stop falling next Monday or Tuesday.

Originally, wine was a good wine, but it was badly fried by the garbage chicken and dog fund, and it became a Ponzi scheme in "Passing the Package", just like the satellite launch during the Cultural Revolution-how bold people are and how productive the land is! This shows how abominable these garbage chicken and dog funds are, and they are simply open hooligans, traitors and traitors!

I'll tell you when to fall. Look at what the price was two or three years ago. This is the price. Because the market is calm and there is no hype, this is the real value.

Therefore, the halving of Maotai during the year is a high probability event!

Drinking to visit friends years ago and starting work years later, what do you say? Maotai years ago, real estate years later, building materials.

It's just that you're not pleasing to the eye because of the increase, so some people are jealous, but don't worry, this market can continue without wine! Spring is coming!

The fundamental reason for the decline of liquor is that it has gone up a lot, and nothing can keep going up. Even if it will continue to rise in the long run, this will not prevent a sharp adjustment in the short term.

As for when it will stabilize, it should be soon, and the real plunge has not yet arrived.