For example, the Gulf War broke out in199117, and Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2, 990. WTI crude oil futures began to rise at the end of July 1990, and the oil price rose by about 40% when the Gulf War broke out, indicating that the war expectation pushed up the crude oil price. However, after the war broke out in 199 1 year 1 month 17, MTI crude oil futures fell sharply by 35%. After the war, crude oil was lower than before 10 USD. The main reason is that the United States uses strategic crude oil reserves to supply crude oil to the market every day, and the International Energy Agency also puts a large amount of crude oil supply to the market every day, which alleviates the market's worries about crude oil supply.
The second air attack on Iraq by developed countries in Britain and America was on March 20th, 2003. Driven by the expectation of the war, new york crude oil futures began to rise in mid-June 2002, and rose by 60% on February 27th, 2003, but after the war, oil prices began to fall sharply.
Second, wars in non-oil producing countries generally have little effect on the trend of crude oil. This is mainly because war, as an important geopolitical factor, has obvious geographical selectivity and regional differences. Generally, only in areas where human resources are concentrated, such as the Middle East, will the price of crude oil rise sharply.
For example,1On March 24th, 1999, the Kosovo war broke out, and NATO countries led by the United States carried out 78 days of air strikes against Kosovo. Because the war took place in Yugoslavia in Europe, not in the Middle East, the output of oil-producing countries in the Middle East was not affected. So during the war, crude oil rose from 15.34 USD per barrel before the war to 17.66 USD per barrel after the war.
Third, the impact of war on crude oil is generally short-term, not long-term and fundamental. After the war broke out, the supply of crude oil was temporarily affected. With the interest game and supply gradually returning to normal, the post-war crude oil trend gradually returned to rationality. Therefore, the impact of war on the trend of crude oil is generally short-lived.