First of all, let's look at the specific process of Jin Song War: In A.D. 1640, Huang Taiji advocated attacking the Ming Dynasty. At this stage, he cut off the supply of the Ming dynasty to the front, at the same time increased the domestic grain production and reduced the domestic consumption of the war. 1642, the Ming and Qing armies confronted each other, and finally the Ming army lost, and the two-year tug-of-war finally ended.
This war led to the total annihilation of the Ming army 1.3 million, and the generals suffered heavy losses. From then on, the Ming dynasty could no longer attack and defend the Qing dynasty, but only allowed them to make trouble on the northern border. However, the losses of the Qing army were small. More importantly, in these two years, the interior of the Qing dynasty has not been dragged down. On the contrary, people's livelihood is stable and they are fully prepared for entering the customs.
Next, let's analyze the reasons for the fiasco of the Ming Dynasty:
First of all, the Ming dynasty misjudged the war situation: at the beginning of this battle, the imperial court thought that it should end the battle quickly before dealing with the domestic rebels. However, it turns out that this is a very wrong decision. There were not many outstanding figures in the late Ming Dynasty. After the emperor sent Hong Chengchou to clear the frontier, the domestic situation suddenly became severe. At this time, in order to stabilize the domestic situation, other ministers advocated ending the fighting as soon as possible, so the emperor made several reminders before realizing the front-line war, which put great pressure on the front-line generals.
Second, Yuan Chonghuan's death made the poor generals in Ming Dynasty worse: although researchers in past dynasties gave Yuan Chonghuan different opinions, his military talents could not be ignored.
With him, it was a big headache for the Qing army to enter the customs, because several laws he promulgated were very practical for guarding the border against foreign enemies. Even after his death, the soldiers in the border still obeyed his laws for a long time, during which it was still difficult for the Qing army to enter the border. However, all this became easy after his death, and the emperor who must have understood it regretted executing him too early. What's more, after Yuan Chonghuan's death, there were almost no available commanders in the imperial court.
Third, there was chaos in the Ming Dynasty, and the supply cut off led to the failure of the war. At the end of the Ming Dynasty, due to the tense situation and extreme weather, farmers and bandits all over the country revolted. It turned out that Hong Chengchou was directing operations in the rear. As long as the situation is under control, those fleeing rebels will not become a climate at all.
But at this moment, Huang Taiji suddenly made an attack, and the emperor made a mistake in judgment and transferred from the rear to the front, which led to the bandits in the rear having a breathing space and being difficult to control in the rear. As a result, the Ming Dynasty could no longer supply the front line, so the soldiers who could have delayed for two or three years had to surrender in a hurry.
Fourth, Hong Chengchou's personal reasons. He is indeed a rare leading wizard himself, which shows that he has a deep study of the art of war when fighting against the rebels. Unfortunately, however, when he faced the more elite Qing army, his series of commands were the direct cause of the failure of this war. Another point is that in the face of the unrealistic urging of the court, he did not stick to his position, especially in the later period. Originally, he made a very correct decision at the beginning of the war. If he persists, it may delay the automatic retreat of the Qing army.
The above reasons are the fundamental reasons for the failure of the Ming army, so is it possible for the Ming Dynasty to win this war? Unfortunately, the answer is no, even if the Ming Dynasty was not as corrupt as it was then, even if Yuan Chonghuan and other generals were not dead, the Qing army would win by absolute advantage, because Huang Taiji had been preparing for this war for nearly 20 years. How could he not win? On the contrary, the Ming dynasty was terminally ill, and it was inevitable that it would die if it continued to struggle.