Luzhou, located in the southeast of Sichuan Province, at the intersection of the Yangtze River and Tuojiang River, was called "Jiangyang" in ancient times. Liquor production is a traditional advantageous industry in this city, and LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. (000568. SZ), the originator of traditional strong fragrance, is also located here.
On September 3rd, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. announced on its website that it had signed a strategic agreement with Alibaba. The next day, with liquor stocks generally falling, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD's share price rose 1.24% against the trend, closing at 152.38 yuan/share, with a market value of 223.2 billion yuan, slightly higher than that of Yanghe (002304. SZ) The same day. On the 7th, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD's share price closed at 152 yuan, down 0.25%.
Affected by the epidemic, in the first half of 2020, although LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD's net profit still maintained growth, its operating income decreased by 4.72% year-on-year to 7.634 billion yuan, which was still far from Yanghe's revenue of 65.438+03.429 billion yuan.
Looking back on the development history of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd., its revenue scale once had the second highlight moment in liquor industry. However, from 20 10, after its revenue was surpassed by Yanghe, by 20 19, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD's revenue scale in the past 10 no longer appeared in the top three in the industry.
During this period, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD introduced the Seven Springs model, which surprised the market and made the company once see the hope of returning to the top three of liquor. However, during the deep adjustment period of liquor, due to the misjudgment of the situation, the company's 20 14 performance fell sharply, further widening the distance with the industry.
The following year, 47-year-old Liu Miao and 43-year-old LAM Raymond, who have first-line sales management experience, respectively became the new chairman and general manager of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd., and the young "Liu Ling" group was highly anticipated by the market. Realizing "deus ex, returning to the top three" has also become the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" goal set by the new management team.
2020 is the last year of "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. From the revenue scale in the first half of the year, it is difficult for the company to achieve the goal of returning to the top three. Behind the company, Shanxi Fenjiu (600809. SH) is approaching quickly. From June to June this year, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. led Shanxi Fenjiu in revenue, which was not as good as the average monthly income of Shanxi Fenjiu in the first half of this year.
In order to achieve the goal of returning to the top three, in recent years, while consolidating the brand of Guojiao 1573 high-end liquor, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD began to implement the strategy of returning the value of Tequ. After the price increase, the company's Tequ terminal price remained above 300 yuan. However, in the first half of the year, the company's mid-range liquor and low-grade liquor revenue declined year-on-year, both of which were double digits.
In the first half of 2020, the operating income of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. was 7.634 billion yuan, down 4.72% year-on-year, while the net profit increased by 65,438+07.12% year-on-year, reaching 3.22 billion yuan. Compared with the first quarter revenue decreased by 65,438+04.79% and net profit increased by 65,438+02.72% year-on-year, the company's performance in the second quarter rebounded significantly.
Bank of China Securities said that the company's revenue and net profit in the second quarter were 4.08 billion and 1.5 1 billion respectively, with revenue increasing by 6.2% and net profit increasing by 22.5% year-on-year, which exceeded market expectations.
The epidemic situation will impact the liquor market in 2020, and the industry uncertainty will increase.
At the online performance briefing in May this year, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. said that due to the epidemic, the company voluntarily cancelled the quota for February-March in order to reduce the pressure on customers. With the epidemic under control, the company began to gradually restore the quota in April, and implemented it according to the normal quota in May.
Since the quota was restored in May, the company has issued a number of policies. It involves stopping the goods, canceling the supply deduction point in Shang Chao, raising the settlement price of 40 yuan/bottle in Guojiao 1573, and the distributor applies for the quota according to the invoice.
Wind data shows that among the six liquor listed companies whose revenue exceeded 6 billion yuan in the first half of the year, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. is one of the two companies whose revenue decreased year-on-year. Kweichow Moutai (6005 19. SH) and Wuliangye (000858. SZ) increased by 1 1.3% and 13.32% respectively.
However, in terms of the year-on-year increase in net profit, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD shares ranked fourth among 18 liquor listed companies with the performance of 12% in the first half of the year, better than Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, and lower than Shanxi Fenjiu and Jiugui Liquor (000799. SZ)。
The data shows that the operating cost of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. in the first half of the year was 65.438+38.7 billion yuan, down 65.438+04.74% year-on-year, much higher than the 4.72% decline of the company's revenue. During the same period, the operating cost of Wuliangye increased by 10. 18%, Kweichow Moutai increased by 16.84%, and Shanxi Fenjiu also increased.
In addition to the sharp drop in operating costs, the excellent performance of high-grade liquor based on Guojiao 1573 has also become the main contributor to the company's net profit growth. In the first half of the year, the revenue of high-grade liquor in LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD increased by 65,438+00.03% year-on-year to 4.746 billion yuan, and the revenue proportion increased from 53.83% in the same period of last year to 62. 16%. In the same period, the gross profit margin of the company's high-end liquor increased by 0.25 percentage points year-on-year to 965,438+0.86%.
In the same period, the sales expenses of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. decreased by 27.72% to1120,000 yuan, a decrease of 427 million yuan compared with153,900 yuan in the same period last year, accounting for 13.26% of the company's net profit in the first half of the year.
According to the analysis of Bank of China Securities, the sales expense ratio of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. in the second quarter decreased by 6.3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the reduction of company expenses during the epidemic. In the first half of the year, the company's advertising expenses and market expansion expenses decreased by 30. 1% year-on-year.
According to the data, the advertising expenses and market expansion expenses of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. in the first half of the year were 777 million yuan, which was 334 million yuan lower than the previous period's 654.38+065.438+065.438+065.438+0.000 million yuan, and the transportation and storage expenses dropped from the previous period's 654.38+0.50 million yuan to 45 million yuan. According to the new income standard, the company will adjust the transportation cost which belongs to the contract performance cost from "sales expense" to "operating cost".
2020 is the last year of the 13th Five-Year Plan of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd., and there is not much time for the company to return to the top three in the industry. However, judging from the revenue scale of the company in the first half of the year, it is not difficult for the company to achieve the goal of hitting the top three this year.
The landmark event that caproic acid bacteria were isolated for the first time in 1970s directly promoted the breakthrough of artificial culture pit mud of Luzhou-flavor liquor. Subsequently, Luzhou-flavor liquor enterprises, represented by LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD, Wuliangye and Jiannanchun, deeply explored the history, culture and brand building, which promoted the rapid development of Luzhou-flavor liquor.
During the period, Luzhou-flavor liquor was in the forefront in terms of the income of liquor listed companies. From 1998 to 2000, the operating income of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Stock Company was the second listed liquor company after Wuliangye.
Even after the listing of 200 1 Kweichow Moutai for about ten years, Luzhou-flavor liquor has been the main force in liquor industry.
Wind data shows that from 200 1 to 20 10, most of Wuliangye's operating income is higher than that of Kweichow Moutai, ranking first in the industry, followed by LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd..
Since 20 13, Kweichow Moutai has surpassed Wuliangye to become the leader in liquor industry, and Wuliangye ranks second, followed by Yanghe and LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD. However, since 20 10, the position of "exploring flowers" in LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD's operating income has been replaced by Yanghe, and the company's revenue ranking has missed the top three in 10.
Looking back on the development process, the management of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD once promoted the reform, and the "Seven Springs" model created before surprised the market, which once made the company see the hope of returning to the top three in liquor.
In 2009, when the company was preparing to catch up with the Qiquan model, the second half of 20 12 ushered in a period of deep adjustment of the industry. Due to the misjudgment of the situation and the appearance of the disadvantages of the sales model, the company's performance in 20 14 fell sharply, but it was far from the first camp.
LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. made a profound reflection in the 20 14 annual report. In the annual report of that year, the company pointed out that due to the company's underestimation of the seriousness of this round of adjustment, some mistakes were made in some countermeasures, the enterprise management system lagged behind the company's development, and it failed to adapt to the requirements of the new situation when it needed enterprises to respond quickly and reasonably to market and environmental changes, which led to the company being greatly affected by this round of adjustment.
After the performance suffered from Waterloo, the management of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Stock Company ushered in changes.
In June, 20 15, Liu Miao replaced Xie Ming, 6 1 year-old, as the chairman of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD, and LAM Raymond replaced Sean, 5 1 year-old, as the general manager of the company. At that time, 47-year-old Liu Miao and 43-year-old LAM Raymond both had first-line sales management experience. "Liu Ling" Group has become a younger partner in liquor listed companies, and has been highly anticipated by the market.
According to the data, at that time, Liu Miao had the resume of the general manager of the sales company of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. LAM Raymond, born in 1973, also has the experience of general manager of sales company of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd., once served as director of human resources and marketing in LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd., and in the same year as general manager of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd., LAM Raymond also served as general manager of sales company of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd.
After the new leader took office, the company's performance returned to growth through organizational reform, rationalizing sales channels and price system, and "returning to the top three" became the "wish" of the new management.
In 20 16, the operating income of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD co., ltd was 8.304 billion yuan, which was still far from the income of Yanghe co., ltd.1765438+83 million yuan, the third place in liquor industry in that year. The income of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. is less than half that of the latter.
In 20 19, the operating income of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD co., ltd. was RMB1581700 million, and the income of Yanghe co., ltd. was RMB 231260,000, with the former accounting for 68.39% of the latter.
In the first half of this year, the revenue of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Stock Company was 7.634 billion yuan, and that of Yanghe was 65.438+03.429 billion yuan, the former accounting for 56.85% of the latter.
It is worth noting that while there is still a big gap between the revenue scale and Yanghe, there are also local leading liquor companies behind LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD.
In 20 16, the operating income of Shanxi Fenjiu was 4.405 billion yuan, only 53.05% of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD's share income in the same period. In the first half of 2020, Shanxi liquor revenue was 6.899 billion yuan, accounting for 90.37% of the revenue of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. in the same period, only 735 million yuan behind the latter, less than the average monthly income of Shanxi liquor in the first half of the year.
"Fenjiu deus ex, first, complete the overall listing, break through the mechanism problem, and highlight the organizational vitality; Second, the cultural IP of' Walking Fenjiu' has become a new business card of Fenjiu brand, which has injected new competitive advantages into the improvement of Fenjiu brand power. " Jin Yufeng believes that the disadvantage of Fenjiu is that the acceptance of Daqu Fen-flavor liquor in Jiangnan is relatively low, the market base in the south is still relatively weak, and LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Stock Company has long been a mature national layout. With the promotion of "Walking Fenjiu" in China, Fenjiu and LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD will gradually become balanced in terms of competitive factors.
Further analysis shows that Yanghe in front of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD shares is struggling to catch up, followed by Fenjiu, with little pressure. If there is no new competitive advantage or new development momentum, the company's income ranking in the industry is really unpredictable. "In the future, whoever injects new impetus into brand upgrading (including but not limited to cultural IP) and whose digital transformation and empowerment will take effect earlier will completely open the gap with the other two parties."
In terms of product structure, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD missed the golden period of development compared with Laojiao Tequ, which was rated as "the four famous wines" at the first China wine tasting.
In order to achieve the goal of "returning to the top three", LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. initially brought the price of Tequ back to the ranks of mid-range wines by raising prices and other measures, and the company made great efforts to build the brand of Tequ.
"In the future, the goal of Tequ is to achieve an annual income of 654.38+000 billion yuan, and the revival of Tequ can be regarded as the real revival of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD's shares." At that time, Wang Hongbo said frankly that in addition to the joint promotion of Tequ and Guojiao 1573, the company would be inclined to Tequ in terms of resource investment, brand building and market resource allocation. Of course, the revival will not be smooth sailing, including brand positioning and publicity, and it will also face competition from other companies.
The data showed that the income of mid-range liquor of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. increased from 2,796,543.8 million yuan in 20 16 to 3,749 million yuan in 20 19, with an increase rate of 34.32%. In the same period, the income of low-alcohol liquor increased from 2.363 billion yuan to 3.2765438 billion yuan, an increase of 38.43%.
With the implementation of Tequ strategy, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD has also increased its support for this product. According to reports, from June to August this year, with the gradual stabilization of the domestic anti-epidemic environment, Luzhou Laojiao Tequ focused on the tenth generation products and launched a brand-new IP marketing campaign in the national core market through the experience of "authentic ice", thus promoting the products to gain a foothold in the 300 yuan price belt.
According to the public data of the flagship store of JD.COM LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd., the price of Luzhou Laojiao Tequ 38 (500ml Luzhou-flavor liquor) is 357 yuan/bottle, Luzhou Laojiao Tequ 52 (500ml Luzhou-flavor liquor) is 360.80 yuan/bottle, and LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. 52-degree Tequ liquor (500ml Cai Jing Luzhou-flavor liquor) is 479.00 yuan/bottle, 65,438+.
From the price point of view, Tequ liquor has returned to the mid-range ranks.
Northeast Securities believes that the current market price of Tequ series has been separated from the fierce competition price belt of low-end real estate wine. Due to factors such as price increase and external environment influence, although the company has strengthened its policy, it still declined in the first half of the year, but compared with brands in the same price segment, its performance is still excellent.
In the first half of 2020, the income of middle and high-grade liquor of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. decreased by 65,438+04.03% to 65,438+09./kloc-0.2 billion yuan, and the income of low-grade liquor decreased by 34.37% to 909 million yuan. The gross profit margin of the above two products decreased by 2. 15% and 4.89% respectively.
In Zhu's view, Tequ is a very important product of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD Co., Ltd. Through integration and slimming, the product still has certain sustainable development prospects in the future.