1. Significance of technical analysis
The so-called technical analysis of stock price is relative to fundamental analysis. As mentioned in the previous part, the basic analysis method focuses on the overall economic situation, the operating conditions of companies, industry trends and other factors, so as to study the value of stocks and measure stock prices. Technical analysis is to study the past and present behavior of the market through charts or records of technical indicators, so as to infer the future price trend. The main contents of the technical indicators it is based on are calculated from the data such as stock price, trading volume or price fluctuation index, and we can also know that technical analysis only cares about the changes of the securities market itself, without considering various external factors such as economy and politics.
The purpose of basic analysis is to judge whether the current stock price is reasonable and describe its long-term development space, while technical analysis is mainly to predict the short-term stock price fluctuation trend. Through basic analysis, we can know what kind of stock we should buy, while technical analysis allows us to grasp the specific buying opportunity. In time, technical analysis focuses on short-term analysis, which is better than basic analysis in predicting the end of old trends and the beginning of new trends, but not as good as the latter in predicting longer-term trends. Most successful stock investors combine these two analytical methods. They use basic analysis methods to estimate long-term trends, and technical analysis methods to judge short-term trends and determine trading opportunities.
Both technical analysis and basic analysis of stock price believe that stock price is determined by the relationship between supply and demand. The basic analysis mainly predicts the stock price trend according to various factors affecting the relationship between supply and demand, while the technical analysis predicts the stock price trend according to the change of the stock price itself. The basic point of technical analysis is that the actual supply and demand relationship of all stocks and the various factors behind it, including everyone's hopes, fears and fears about the future in the stock market, are reflected in the stock price and trading volume.
The theoretical basis of technical analysis is the theory of castles in the air. The theory of castles in the air was put forward by john maynard keynes, a famous American economist, in 1936, which completely abandoned the intrinsic value of stocks and emphasized castles in the air constructed by psychology. The investor wants to buy a stock at a certain price because he believes that someone will buy it from him at a higher price. As for the stock price, it doesn't matter. The important thing is that more "idiots" are willing to buy from you at a higher price. Smart investors don't need to calculate the intrinsic value of stocks. What he has to do is to make a deal before the biggest "idiot", that is, buy a stock before the stock price reaches the highest point and sell it after the stock price reaches the highest point.
2. Dow's stock price fluctuation theory
According to Dow theory, there are three trends in stock price movement, the most important of which is the basic trend of stock, that is, the broad or comprehensive fluctuation of stock price. This change usually lasts for a year or more, and the total increase (decrease) of the stock price exceeds 20%. For investors, the basic trend continues to rise to form a long market, and continues to fall to form a short market.
The second trend of stock price movement is called the second trend of stock price. Because the secondary trend is often opposite to the basic trend and has a certain inhibitory effect on it, it is also called the correction trend of stock price. This trend varies from three weeks to several months, and its share price generally rises or falls by 65438+ 0/3 or 2/3 of the basic trend of the share price. The third trend of stock price movement is called short-term trend, which reflects the change of stock price in a few days. A revised trend usually consists of three or more short-term trends.
Among the three trends, long-term investors are most concerned about the basic trend of stock prices, with the aim of buying as many stocks as possible in the bull market and selling them in time before the short market is formed. Speculators are more interested in the correction trend of stock prices. Their purpose is to make short-term profits from it. Short-term trend is not very important, easy to be manipulated, and inconvenient to be the object of trend analysis. People generally can't manipulate the basic trend and correct the trend of the stock price, and only the national financial department can make limited adjustments ... [Details]
3. Wave theory
Wave theory is a price trend analysis tool invented by R·E· Eliot, a master of technical analysis. It is a set of completely observable laws, which can be used to analyze the trend of stock market index and price. It is also the most used analytical tool in the analysis of world stock market, but it is the most difficult to understand and master.
Eliot believes that the fluctuation of both stock and commodity prices, like the tides and waves in nature, has a considerable degree of regularity, showing the characteristics of periodic cycle, and any fluctuation is followed. Therefore, investors can predict the future trend of prices according to these regular fluctuations and apply them to trading strategies.
Four basic characteristics of wave theory
(1) The stock price index rises and falls alternately;
(2) Push wave and adjustment wave are the two basic types of price fluctuation. Push wave (that is, wave in line with market trend) can be further divided into five small waves, generally represented by 1 wave, 2 waves, 3 waves, 4 waves and 5 waves, and adjustment wave can also be divided into three small waves, usually represented by A wave, B wave and C wave.
(3) After the above eight waves (five ups and three downs) are completed, one cycle is completed and the trend enters the next eight wave cycle;
(4) The length of time will not change the wave form, because the market will still develop according to its basic form. Waves can be elongated or narrowed, but their basic modes remain unchanged ... [Details]
4. Theory of stock market development stage and growth cycle.
The development path of the securities market is not exactly the same, but it usually goes through five stages.
Dormant stage: not many people know about the securities market at this stage, and there are few companies whose shares are publicly listed. But after a long time, investors found that even if the potential capital appreciation was not counted, the dividends they received exceeded the income of other investment forms, so they bought stocks, but they were still cautious at first.
Manipulation stage: Some securities brokers and traders find that because there are few stocks and limited liquidity, they can raise prices by buying a small number of stocks. As long as the price continues to rise, it will attract others to buy, and then the manipulator can make huge profits by selling stocks. As a result, they began to drive up market prices, manipulate the market and make huge profits.
Investment stage: Some people gain a lot of capital appreciation by buying and selling stocks. No matter what they achieve or just on paper, the demonstration effect of these huge profits will attract more people to join the ranks of speculation, and the speculative stage will begin. The stock price greatly exceeds the actual value, and the trading volume will skyrocket. Newly issued shares are often oversubscribed, which attracts many companies to issue shares, and those shareholders who are unwilling to sell also sell shares for profit, thus expanding the supply of listed shares.
Crash stage: at a certain time, the source of funds for speculation will be exhausted, and the subscription of new shares will be less and less, while more and more investors will calm down and begin to realize that the stock price has been raised too high, which is too far from its original value. At this time, as long as there are signs of trouble outside, the stock price will shake, and then the price will start to fall.
Mature stage: After the stock market falls, it will take months or even years to restore public confidence in the stock market. The length of this time depends on the extent of price decline, the stimulation of buying new shares, the behavior of institutional investors and other factors. The falling market has cost these people a lot of money. They only keep it for long-term investment, hoping that the price will rise in the future. Some private investors have become cautious, some new investors who have not experienced the collapse stage have joined in, and the ranks of institutional investors have also expanded. In this way, the mature stage began. The stock supply here has increased, with greater liquidity, more experienced investors and more stable trading volume. Although the stock price will still fluctuate, it will not be as violent as before, but fluctuate with the development of economy and enterprises ... [
5. Confidence theory
Confidence stock price theory is based on the point of view of market mentality to analyze stock prices. Because the traditional stock price theory pays too much attention to the influence of corporate profits, it can't explain the overall factors of stock price rise and fall in the changeable stock market. Especially when some unexpected factors lead to the stock price should not rise, but fall, or should not fall, but rise, this phenomenon makes the traditional stock price theory more contradictory. Therefore, the theory of confidence stock price emphasizes that the stock market is influenced by psychological or confidence factors.
According to the confidence theory, the factors that affect the changes of stock prices in the market are the market's confidence in future stock prices, company profits and the proportion of stock placement. If investors are optimistic about the basic situation of the stock market, the stronger their confidence, they will definitely show their mentality by buying stocks, and the stock price will rise accordingly. If the capital itself is too optimistic, it may ignore the fact that the stock has exceeded the reasonable normal price level and blindly buy in large quantities, so that the stock price will rise to an unreasonable price level. On the contrary, if investors are pessimistic about the basic situation of the stock market and their confidence turns low, they will sell their stocks and the stock price will fall. If investors are too pessimistic, they will sell a lot of stocks regardless of the normal stock price, the company's income and dividends, resulting in the stock price being thrown to an unreasonable level. Because of the strength of investors' confidence, there have been various situations, sometimes completely out of touch with the basic factors such as the operating conditions and profitability of listed companies, which has caused the stock price to skyrocket and plummet.
Confidence stock price theory is based on market psychology, which explains the changes of stock price in the market and depends entirely on the financial information of the company. Therefore, this theory can make up for the shortcomings of the traditional stock price theory and provide a reasonable explanation for the abnormal phenomena in the stock market. For example, when the economy is good, the stock price is weak, or when the economy is bad, the stock price rises instead. If this theory is correct, then the investment strategy is to study the market mentality. Whether it is pessimistic or optimistic, following the market trend will definitely make a profit.
However, the theory of confidence stock price also has its shortcomings. Serious weakness, because the public's confidence in the stock market is difficult to measure, often confuses people who analyze the stock market dynamics, so many investors still believe in the traditional stock price theory, but in many cases, the traditional stock price theory has been proved to be a failure.
Comparing the above two stock price theories, the traditional stock price theory pays too much attention to the company's operation and profitability, and ignores many other external factors that affect the stock price, which is naturally lacking. Confidence stock price theory pays too much attention to all kinds of short-term external factors that affect stock price, but ignores the advantages and disadvantages of the company's essence.
6. Stock value theory
Palat of the United States first proposed the separation of stock price and value. In his book "Mock on Wall Street (1903)" published by 1903, he pointed out that the economic essence of stock value lies in its influencing factors, such as the income of dividend-paying enterprises, the quality of managers and the profitability of enterprises. Palat believes that in theory, the stock price is consistent with the real value, but in fact they are completely different. However, he believes that the difference between the two phenomena is not limited to stocks, but also other real estate, but stocks are special. Because as far as the formation of price is concerned, it is determined by supply and demand factors, and it is not necessarily completely consistent with the real value. Besides the real value, there are many other factors, such as the good news, the structure of the securities market, the popularity of the stock market and the investment atmosphere. , and the vast majority of amateur investors' judgments on the production of listed companies. Although pappas emphasized the analysis of the securities market, his theory still lacked "preciseness" and there were many ambiguities.
Later, S. S. Hebner supplemented Paavo's argument in the book Stock Market (1934). Habner takes the relationship between stock value and price as an investment guide, uses financial analysis to grasp stock value, and emphasizes the relationship between stock price and market factors and finance. He believes that "the trend of stock price is consistent with its essential value." He believes that "in the long run, the change of stock price mainly depends on the change of property value." In addition, Habana is also committed to the combination of securities analysis and securities market analysis.
In the book Stock Exchange, Hesse stands in the position of securities market analysis. In addition to distinguishing the value and price of stocks, he further confirmed that the essential value of stocks lies in dividends, and emphasized that the fundamental difference between stock prices and general commodity prices lies in the difference between stock values and market operations.
J Moody, a contemporary of Palat, thinks in the book "The Art of Wall Street Investment" (1906) that the focus of the rights of common stock is not only the right to receive dividends, but also the net income that can be distributed to dividends after the issuing company bears its expenses, such as corporate debt interest, directors and supervisors' remuneration and interest expenses. Because the income of most listed joint-stock companies varies greatly, sometimes it is quite common for enterprises to lose money after deducting other expenses. Therefore, it is necessary to add "speculation" factor when evaluating the resolution right of common stock (the right to participate in management) and the value of company assets.
Modi even emphasized the consideration of the "quality" of listed companies. Among the two major industries at that time-railway and industrial stocks, the former developed steadily and the latter speculated. Even if the income is the same, the price will be different. Therefore, Modi's works further emphasize the influence of capital reduction rate and risk factors on the stock market price.
There are also two people who discuss the essence of stock value, D A Dace and W.J. Erdtman. They co-authored the book Stock Market (1952). In this book, the author discusses the system of joint stock limited company from a historical and legal perspective, and legally stipulates the rights of shareholders to master the essence of stocks. They pointed out that shareholders have three basic rights: (1) the right to participate in the company's business decisions; (two) the right to distribute the remaining property; (3) the right to claim dividends. However, due to the development of modern securities circulation market, there are more and more small and medium-sized shareholders, most of whom have no intention to participate in enterprise management, and only a few people buy shares for the purpose of distributing surplus property. It can be seen that the purpose of buying stocks is to get dividends, and the amount of dividends depends on the income of enterprises. Therefore, the author believes that "investors buy stocks, in fact, it is the right to claim the present and future earnings of enterprises."
7. Adam theory
Since19th century, securities analysts gradually put forward the theoretical system. First of all, W G Cordinly put forward the view that "the stock price is determined by the law of supply and demand" in the book "Guide to Stock Exchanges" (1907). In order to deeply discuss "the law of supply and demand and the change of supply and demand relationship", we must attach importance to public opinions. However, the theoretical basis of his works is still insufficient and lacks accuracy. In his book Investment. 1953, J Grodinsky analyzed the securities market from another angle. He predicted the stock price by studying the relationship between supply and demand, and specifically pointed out two ways.
The first way is to pay attention to the relationship between stock price and other economic phenomena, and predict the fluctuation of stock price from the changes of these relationships. This method is now commonly known as "fundamental analysis". The other method does not pay attention to the relationship between stock price and other economic phenomena, but only predicts stock price through various phenomena of internal technical factors in the stock market. This is now called "technical analysis". The former considers the following issues: (1) the relationship between stock interest rate and stock price; (2) Compare dividend yield and bond yield to judge market conditions: (3) Relationship between stock price and interest rate: (4) Relationship between economic growth, prosperity and stock price fluctuation. The factors considered by the latter are: (1) analysis of speculative factors in the securities market; (2) Observing the past stock price trend and inferring the future stock price trend, mainly using various graphs; (3) Observing the trend of public investment; (4) Review the relationship between stock trading value and stock price.
M (J.) thinks in the book Stock Market (1948) that the change of stock price is not only determined by a single factor. Actually. There are not only many factors that affect the change of stock price, but also complicated, so it is quite difficult to analyze the influence degree and direction of various factors. So Mendel listed the following main influencing factors: (1) interest rate; (2) enterprise income; (3) Prosperous activities; (4) stock market dynamics; (5) monetary policy: (6) changes in the overall price level; (7) Market psychology of mass investors; (8) Political influence; (9) The occurrence of natural and man-made disasters; (10) economic status; (1 1) Population changes and so on ... [and]
8. Random Walking Theory
The existence value of all chart trends is based on one assumption, that is, stocks, foreign exchange, gold, bonds and so on. All investment will be influenced by economic, political and social factors, which will be repeated as history. For example, if the economy recovers from the Great Depression, real estate prices, the stock market and gold will all rise. There will be a decline after the rise, but it will rise higher after the fall. Even in the short term, the laws governing all investment values are inseparable from the above factors. As long as investors can predict which factors dominate the price, they can predict the future trend. As far as stocks are concerned, the chart trend, volume and price reflect the investor's mentality trend. The reason for this mentality is to deny their income, age, understanding of news, degree of acceptance and digestion, and enthusiasm for confidence, which are all reflected through stock prices and transactions. According to the chart, we can predict the future stock price trend. The random walk theory opposes this statement, and the opinion is the opposite.
Random walk theory points out that there are thousands of smart people in the stock market, not all of them are ignorant. Everyone knows how to analyze it. The information flowing into the market is public, and everyone can know that there are no secrets. You know, I also know that the current stock price has reflected the relationship between supply and demand. Or its own value will not be too far away. The so-called intrinsic value measurement method is to look at the basic factors such as asset value per share, price-earnings ratio and dividend payout ratio. None of these factors is a big secret. Everyone can find these materials by opening newspapers or magazines. A stock asset is worth ten dollars, and it will never become a hundred dollars or a dollar in the market. No one in the market will spend 100 yuan to buy this stock, and no one will spend 1 yuan to sell this stock. At present, the market price of stocks has basically represented the views of millions of discerning people and constituted a reasonable price. The market price will fluctuate around the intrinsic value, but these fluctuations are random and there is no trace ... [Details]
9. Contrary theory
On the contrary, the basic view of this theory is that investment decisions are based on the behavior of the public. It pointed out that the bull market began to peak when everyone was optimistic about both the stock market and the futures market. When everyone is bearish, the bear market has bottomed out. As long as you don't agree with the masses, there is always a chance to get rich.
(1) On the contrary, this theory is not only optimistic by most people, but also pessimistic, or optimistic when the public is pessimistic. On the contrary, the theory will consider these trends of optimism and bearish ratio, which is a dynamic concept.
(2) The contrary theory does not mean that the public must be wrong. The public is usually right about the main trends. Most people are optimistic that the market will go up, because these optimism has turned into real purchasing power. This phenomenon is likely to last for a long time. Until everyone's optimism tends to be consistent, the market situation has undergone a qualitative change-the imbalance between supply and demand. Humphrey Neil said: When everyone has the same idea, everyone is wrong.
(3) On the contrary, from the actual market research, it is found that only 5% people make big money and 95% are losers. If you want to be a winner, you can only run counter to the ideological line of the masses and never go with the flow ... [Details]
10. golden ratio theory
In stock price forecasting, there are two golden section analysis methods according to the two groups of golden section ratios.
The first method: take the important peak or bottom of the recent stock price trend, that is, the important high or low point, as the basis for calculating and measuring the future trend. When the stock price rises, it is more likely to be supported when it falls to a certain golden ratio based on the bottom stock price. When the market draws to a close, the stock price rises or falls sharply, and its rise and fall reaches an important golden ratio, then the trend may change. The second method: after the market turns, whether it is the reversal from stopping falling to rising or the reversal from stopping rising to falling, the increase between the important peak position and the bottom position in the recent trend is taken as the measurement base, and the original rise and fall are 0. 19 1, 0.382, 0.5, 0.6 18 and 0.800. The trend of the stock price after the turn will probably encounter temporary resistance or support at these gold points ... [Details]
1 1. Operating principles of technical analysis
According to the definition of technical analysis, its main contents include chart analysis and technical indicators. In fact, the early technical analysis is only a simple chart analysis, that is, through the chart form formed by market behavior, to speculate on the future stock price trend. However, because this method is easily influenced by personal subjective consciousness in practical application, there are different judgments. This is why many people joke that chart analysis is an art work, and nine people may draw ten conclusions. In order to reduce the subjectivity of chart judgment, the market has gradually developed some methods that can be used to calculate data to help individuals perceive and identify graphic patterns and make the analysis more objective.