The stock price turned around on Thursday, June 24th 10. On that day, Tesla's share price jumped by $44, or 17%, and the intraday share price exceeded $300-2019 for the first time since February 28th. The reason for the stock price jump is Tesla model1October 23rd 10? 3 appeared in the 325th batch of Announcement of Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Products published by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which indicates that Tesla China Factory has obtained the qualification of electric vehicle production, and the door of China market has been opened to Tesla-nothing can push Tesla's share price up more than China market.
Last year,1October 24th, 10 can be regarded as an initial point of Tesla's share price galloping.
In the next two months, Tesla's share price stood at $300, but it did not rise sharply. Until the middle and late February of 12, Tesla began to rise again, almost from the price of 350 dollars to more than 400 dollars. Although "only" has risen by about 15%-20%, it is of great significance-Tesla stands at a new high in history.
The motivation of this round of stock price rise is also related to the China market. The information that domestic Tesla is going to deliver in China market is gradually fermenting. After Christmas, Tesla China officially confirmed that it will deliver the first batch of Chinese-made models 65438 to 15 employees on February 30th. 3。 Later, it was reported that the first batch of ordinary users of domestic Tesla will be delivered on June 7, 2020, and Musk will also announce the follow-up plan in China.
20 19, 12, 3 1, Tesla ended its two-day losing streak and opened at $405. The closing price was $465,438 +08.33, which was not the highest in the whole year.
From last year's 65438+February 3 1, the next 40 days began to enter "Tesla time".
In the first year of 2020, "Tesla" should be the word with the highest frequency in China automobile industry: on the one hand, China automobile enterprises have started to enter the inventory period before the Spring Festival holiday; on the other hand, Tesla has launched an unprecedented marketing offensive in the China market.
First, Tesla announced the start of delivery at the beginning of the month, then Tesla CEO Elon Musk danced in the Shanghai factory, and then Tesla China announced Model? 3 after the subsidy, the price is less than 300 thousand, and the Shanghai factory starts the model? Y production plan ... this information has pushed Tesla fans and Tesla shareholders to a climax on social media. It gives people the impression that Tesla seems to be trying to open a hole in China's new energy vehicle market and sprint for a new era.
However, the China market has a greater impact on Tesla, at least at the share price level.
On the afternoon of 65438+ 101/Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the "Electric Vehicle committee of 100" that the subsidy for new energy vehicles will not be reduced this year. At first, committee of 100's speech was regarded as a slip of the tongue, and later it was constantly confirmed. However, this kind of "unintentional language" is driven by the rising share price of new energy battery manufacturers, and Tesla on the other side of the ocean is even more encouraged.
Two days later, on the opening day of the US stock market on 65438+1October 13, Tesla jumped from $493.5 and rushed to the $500 mark in one breath, finally closing at $524.86, an increase of 9.77%. It is worth noting that in recent days, Tesla's trading volume has been enlarged to more than 26 million shares, and the turnover rate once exceeded 2 1%.
No matter how much China market can support Tesla's sales growth, or how long it takes to form scale effect, based on the information point that Tesla put into production in China market or entered the new energy market in China, many investors have given the expectation that Tesla's market value is close to 100 billion, and even described Tesla's potential as "the next apple".
Shan Bin, a famous investor in Weibo, wrote when Tesla's share price exceeded $500: "Tesla rose by 9.77%. Last night, I told my friends that Tesla has yet to be verified as an apple in the automobile industry, but once it becomes an apple, its potential is greater than that of Apple. First of all, it will constantly upgrade its paid content service, just like Apple's application ... And Tesla's charging piles and charging stations are expanded and networked at high speed, which can make it the same service format as gas stations, and it is world-class. It is environmentally friendly in most countries and regions and can be charged by solar energy ... "
Of course, Tesla at this time has not really attracted the attention of all parties, and its share price rise is regarded as a normal "hype".
However, traditional car companies have taken the lead in feeling the influence of Tesla, including the rise in the share price of Tesla, the Volkswagen Group with the second market value in the global auto industry at that time, making its market value catch up with the public. Based on the stock price of 65438+ 10/3, Tesla's market value has reached 94.603 billion US dollars, and it is close at hand to break through the market value of 100 billion US dollars, while Volkswagen's market value is just around 1000 billion US dollars.
At that time, an internal speech by Herbert Diss, the new CEO of Volkswagen, was exposed. He asked a serious question to his colleague sitting below: "Volkswagen is being chased by Tesla. Will Volkswagen become the next Nokia? "
"The storm has just begun.
Ladies and gentlemen, we are also evaluated as an automobile enterprise, and Tesla is already a technology enterprise.
In the future, cars will become the most complex and valuable Internet devices in the world. At that time, we will spend more time in the car than now, perhaps from one hour a day to two hours a day. The car will no longer be a simple gray box, but will become more comfortable, warmer, more functional and deeply integrated with the network.
In the car, we will go to always online, generating more data, receiving more information and using more services than smart phones, which requires higher safety and comfort. Networked cars will double the time we spend online. Cars will become the most important mobile devices.
If we realize this, we can understand why Tesla is so valuable from the perspective of analysts. We Volkswagen Group also want to get there. But the biggest question is, are we doing it fast enough now? To tell the truth, maybe, but this problem is becoming more and more important. In fact, if we continue at the current speed, it will become more tense.
I still remember when I hired some Nokia employees. I asked them hundreds of questions to explain how they lost the battle with Apple. Nokia's logic at that time was: We have 43 different kinds of mobile phones, which can satisfy different users, and no one wants a touch screen. Besides, you have to charge the iPhone once a day, but Nokia's battery can last for a week. Nokia set a record for many years, but it is dead. ...
The era of traditional car manufacturers is over. "
KOL, the owner of Tesla, said that if there is a movie about Tesla one day, Herbert Diss's speech will definitely reappear in the movie.
Obviously, Edith's remarks are emotional, especially the conclusion about "technology companies". Although Volkswagen released the first model ID.3 of MEB electric vehicle platform at the 20 19 Frankfurt Motor Show, this brand-new electric vehicle has never been delivered-more than 10000 vehicles have been produced, but the software system problems have never been solved, and the products can't be sold to consumers in the end.
Volkswagen has now chosen electrification in despair, but it was not until the delivery stage that it found itself no different from those new car-making troops-the manufacturing experience of traditional car companies was even more useless than expected.
In the next ten days, Tesla began to "swing" on the price line of $500. Every day, the stock price is jaw-dropping, but it always hovers at 500-550 dollars. Tesla at the moment, seemingly "unstable", is actually accumulating strength for a goal-market value breakthrough 1000 billion US dollars.
654381October 20th, Tesla's share price gapped lower. The lowest share price is $ 503. 16 and the highest is only $5 15.67. On this day, a negative line was received, with a drop of only 0.58%.
A very key indicator is that Tesla has not formed a stampede of selling, although it intends to lower the stock price to the psychological barrier of $500. On that day, the turnover fell below 7 billion, and the turnover rate was below 10% for the first time in five days, only 9.58%.
This means investors are reluctant to sell!
On 65438+1October 2 1 day, Tesla's share price opened higher, with a gap of $ 15, and rose to $548 at the close, an increase of 7. 19%. Both turnover rate and transaction volume are rising. Looks like it's time. As long as Tesla's share price rises by $6.9 to $554.9, Tesla can reach the market value of 1000 billion.
For elon musk, the achievement of the market value of 1000 billion dollars will give him a stock reward of 654.38+0 billion dollars.
According to Musk's salary plan for the next ten years approved by Tesla's special shareholders' meeting on March 2, 2065438, Musk's salary is about 20.3 million stock options linked to Tesla's market value and operating performance, accounting for about 12% of the tradable shares in 20 10, and there is no other cash salary. The market value target reward starts from $654.38+00 billion, with each level of $50 billion and the highest value of $650 billion. Every time you reach the first level, you will get about 6.5438+0.69 million shares.
By the way, when this incentive plan was made, Tesla's share price was $365,438 +06.53. According to the calculation at that time, Tesla's share price needs to rise by 75.3%.
65438+1October 22nd finally arrived.
On the same day, Tesla opened higher again, with the opening price of $5,765,438 +0.89 and the highest price of $594.5, one step away from the new $600 mark. In fact, Tesla's share price fluctuated greatly in intraday trading, reaching a minimum of $559, but finally closed at $569.56, an increase of 4.09%.
Based on this closing price, on October 22nd, the market value of Tesla reached 1026 billion US dollars, officially surpassing Volkswagen-at that time, it was 99.8 billion US dollars-and became the second largest enterprise in the global automobile industry, second only to Toyota with a market value of about 200 billion US dollars.
While Tesla is rising all the way, China's capital market is also experiencing fierce turmoil. The concept of "technology car" represented by Tesla is promoting the sharp rise of domestic technology stocks.
On the 10th day of the year, the "Tesla Plate" rose from 2 100 to 2,400. The "new energy vehicle sector" rose from 1800 to 2 100; The "lithium battery concept plate" also rose from 1800 to 2 100; Encouraged by Tesla, "Automotive Electronics Concept Plate" rose from 1.240 to 1.360 in just over ten days.
Even under the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic, the share prices of these companies with explicit or implicit relations with Tesla only fluctuated within a narrow range, and the overall price did not change.
On the other hand, affected by the epidemic, traditional automobile stocks fell sharply. Dongfeng Group's Hong Kong stocks in Wuhan dropped by 6.56 yuan from around 7.5 yuan. The closure of Wuhan means that Dongfeng Honda, the biggest profit source of Dongfeng Motor, will enter a state of suspension of production. In addition, from 65438+1October 14, Geely Automobile fell for 9 consecutive days, from the highest point 16.5 yuan to 13.7 yuan; Guangzhou Automobile Group also fell below 1 1 yuan from 12.45 yuan; SAIC decreased by about 65,438+00%.
On October 30th, 65438/kloc-0, the epidemic delayed the opening of the domestic A-share market, and it seems that the situation has not improved. The overseas stock market opened, and the Hong Kong stock market only took three days. The Hang Seng Index dropped from 28,000 points before the New Year to 26,276 points, and auto stocks also plunged.
Tesla, on the other hand, opened at $632 directly after the opening because of its bright financial report in the fourth quarter, closing at $ 640.8438+0, and stood at the $600 mark in one fell swoop.
"Tesla's Q4 is also very strong, with revenue of $7.384 billion and net profit of $65.438+$05 million. In particular, Q4 is a rare profit for two consecutive quarters. As far as automobile business is concerned, the sales revenue of electric vehicles is 6.37 billion US dollars, accounting for 86.4% of the total revenue. Thanks to the positioning of luxury electric vehicles, Tesla's gross profit margin performance is also eye-catching, reaching 22.5%-the automobile business income is 6.384 billion US dollars, and the gross profit is 65.438+0.43 billion US dollars. Tesla's cash flow of 20 19Q4 reached 1 billion dollars. " Write it in an analytical article.
Tesla achieved the second market value of the automobile industry with an annual sales volume of 367,000 vehicles. At this time, its market value is 1 153 billion US dollars, which is roughly equivalent to the market value of the three major American automobile giants, General Motors, Ford Motor Company and FCA. However, the production capacity of the latter three is about170,000 vehicles.
What kind of investment logic is supporting Tesla's share price of $650? This question actually doesn't make any sense at this time-when the stock price skyrockets, just buy it, and no matter what happens, it won't change the upward trend.
Worried about China's influence on the global economy, the US stock market suffered a "Black Friday" on June 5438+1October 3 1. The Dow Jones index plunged 603.4 1 point, or 2.09%, while the Nasdaq index was slightly better, or 1.59%. It seems that the whole market is beginning to feel more panic.
Even so, on the last day of June 65438+ 10, Tesla still didn't have the slightest intention of pulling back, but continued to rise 1.52%, closing at the highest price in history and standing firmly above $650.
For a whole month, only 7 of 2 1 trading days fell, and Tesla's share price rose by 232.24 USD, or 55.6%.
Back in 20 191October 24th, Tesla's share price doubled in just three months. In other words, as long as you buy Tesla shares on any previous day, your asset value will double. This is the beautiful myth of Nasdaq.
However, this month's story is just a prelude, and the real drama is about to begin.
Wen | Liu
Figure | Network
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.