After the Spring Festival, the purchase and sale of Cornus officinalis in Bozhou, Anguo and other markets gradually improved, and the price rebounded 1 yuan and then stabilized. After more than half a month, there are still many merchants looking for goods in the market, and the prices continue to rise, 1 yuan, Xixia in Henan 15 yuan, Foping in Shaanxi 13- 14 yuan, Chun 'an in Zhejiang13.5-/kloc-0. The reasons for the recovery of Cornus officinalis market this spring are: first, the price of Cornus officinalis was low at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, and some merchants hoarded it at low prices; Second, there was little precipitation in the mountainous areas of Henan, Zhejiang and Shaanxi last winter. After the Spring Festival, there was a rare high temperature of more than 20 degrees. After that, the cold air went south, and snowfall occurred in the cornus officinalis producing areas of Shaanxi and Henan. Then, whether this year's Cornus officinalis market bottomed out or a prelude to a new round of market recovery is the focus of everyone's attention. To this end, the author analyzes as follows:

I. Overview of Cornus officinalis

Cornus officinalis, also known as jujube peel, is processed from the fruit of Cornus officinalis and distributed in Funiu Mountain and Qinling Mountains. Xixia in Henan, Chun 'an in Zhejiang and Foping in Shaanxi are the main producing areas of Cornus officinalis. Among them, Henan has the largest output, and Zhejiang has the best quality of Cornus officinalis. In addition, Cornus officinalis is also distributed in many small producing areas such as northern Sichuan, Dabie Mountain in Anhui, southeastern Shanxi and northwestern Hubei.

Cornus officinalis is a deciduous tree, which likes humid climate and has the characteristics of tolerance to shade, light and humidity. Fruiting began in 3-4 years after planting, and it entered the full fruit stage in 8- 10 years, and the full fruit stage was as long as 10-30 years. Cornus officinalis, which has entered the flowering tree age, undergoes flower bud differentiation from May to June in the first year, blooms in early spring in the second year, and the fruit matures in 10. Last year's fruit grew, and at the same time it gave birth to next year's buds. The yield per plant of Cornus officinalis is affected by nutrients, water and temperature.

Second, the price change law of Cornus officinalis

(1) Time analysis of price fluctuation of Cornus officinalis in history

Cornus officinalis is a variety with frequent price fluctuations.

In the past two decades, Cornus officinalis broke through the high price of 200 yuan twice in 1998 and 2000, with the interval exceeding 10 years. In recent ten years, the price of Cornus officinalis fluctuated at a low price for 8-9 years, while the price of Cornus officinalis was lower than that of 20 yuan from 1994 to 1997. It is precisely because of the downturn in the Cornus officinalis market and the reduction in production that the high price of 1999-200 1 year was obtained.

It has been 6 years since Cornus officinalis fell below 30 yuan in 2002. In the past six years, Cornus officinalis has been chased by merchants wave after wave, and the market has gone up and down, completing two small cycles. One is 13- 14 yuan by the end of 2002 and 28-30 yuan by the end of 2003; Ii. 20051-13 yuan to mid-2007 25-28 yuan. In 2008, the output of Cornus officinalis continued to decline, and the price dropped to 13- 14 yuan by the end of the year.

Time period analysis of price fluctuation of cornus officinalis;

1. Short-term fluctuation of Cornus officinalis from 2002 to now: two small fluctuation periods were completed in the five years from 2002 to 2007. From the end of 2008 to the beginning of 2009, the price of Cornus officinalis fell to the low price of 13- 14 yuan, and the rebound after the Spring Festival in 2009 was the beginning of a new round of market. 2. Judging from the historical market of Cornus officinalis in the past 20 years, Cornus officinalis has been at a low price for 7 years, and the adjustment has entered the later stage.

(B) Analysis of the reasons for the rise and fall of Cornus officinalis

In recent 20 years, every price increase of Cornus officinalis is closely related to disasters such as drought, cold in late spring and insect pests. In addition, due to the long-term low price of Cornus officinalis, farmers give up picking or cutting down trees, the price rises, and the phenomenon that merchants hoard and drive up prices can not be ignored.

It can be seen from the big cycle of price fluctuation of Cornus officinalis in 200 yuan and 300 yuan in 2000 that the climbing process of Cornus officinalis in 2000 was not caused by a year's frozen production reduction, but also because of the long-term low price of Cornus officinalis, such as farmers neglecting management, leaving it to fend for itself, or simply cutting down and planting other cash crops, which led to successive years of production reduction. Even if the weather is favorable next year and farmers strengthen management, it will be difficult for the output to increase greatly for a while. This is the basis for the arrival of the cornus officinalis market.

From 2002 to 2008, the price of Cornus officinalis has experienced two small-cycle fluctuations: First, drought, late spring cold, insect pests and other disasters are the main reasons for the price increase. Cornus officinalis is low in price, which attracts many merchants to hoard under the influence of rising prices and other factors, and is a booster of market fluctuation.

In recent years, the market of Cornus officinalis has experienced ups and downs, with the largest increase of several tens of percentage points, but there is no Shuang Sheng. The reason is that the dogwood tree has entered a prosperous fruiting period. As long as we meet a good year, or the market is good, farmers are well managed and actively picking, we can still restore production in a year or two.

With the price falling, the wave of hoarding and speculation in 2006-2007 began to cool down in early 2008. The global financial crisis continued to affect China's economy, and by the end of 2008, China's economy had dropped to freezing point.

(3) Analyze the output, demand and inventory of Cornus officinalis.

In recent years, due to natural disasters, farmers giving up mining because of low prices and other factors, the output of Cornus officinalis has been high and low.

Cornus officinalis has definite curative effect and wide application. Cornus officinalis is a astringent, which contains iridoid glycosides such as cornuside, moroside, 7-O- methyl moroside, cornucopia neoglycoside, swertiamarin, strychnine, ursolic acid, tartaric acid, gallic acid, malic acid, cornucopia tannin 1, 2, 3 and other effective components. It has obvious diuretic, antihypertensive, antibacterial and leukocytosis effects, and has obvious curative effects on dizziness, tinnitus, backache caused by liver and kidney deficiency, nocturnal emission and frequent urination caused by kidney yin deficiency. Because of its astringent and hemostatic effects, it is often used to treat menorrhagia, metrorrhagia and leukorrhagia caused by women's physical weakness, and has a good therapeutic effect on common diseases in andrology and gynecology. Therefore, it is listed as one of the 40 bulk varieties of traditional Chinese medicine and has a broad market in the field of traditional Chinese medicine. In the early days of the People's Republic of China, its annual sales volume was about 200-300 tons. Since the reform and opening up, due to the development of medical care in the motherland, the use of Cornus officinalis has been widely developed, and a variety of Chinese patent medicines have been used as basic drugs, and the demand has increased greatly every year. In recent years, the annual demand of Cornus officinalis has reached 3000-4000 tons. Cornus officinalis is one of the main components of Liuwei Dihuang Pill, which has the effects of nourishing liver and kidney, astringing essence and resolving hard mass.

Third, look forward to the future of Cornus officinalis.

Based on the above analysis, Cornus officinalis is still in a short-term fluctuation and rising stage, and local drug dealers are optimistic about Cornus officinalis as the best variety. Cornus officinalis is a familiar variety, and its price has changed dramatically in history. In recent years, because of its low price, it has been concerned and sought after by merchants many times. However, due to many factors, the market that tried to rise several times was folded in time. In this regard, businesses keen on this product began to have doubts, and the attention of the market was also weakening. At present, Cornus officinalis has started to produce new products. Will the price of Cornus officinalis, which has been suppressed for many years, rise this year? In this regard, the author holds a positive attitude.

In 2009, the sales volume was too large, and too many stocks were eaten, which led many drug dealers to buy stocks first at 20 10, because some stocks were eaten in 2009, and the rest were high-priced stocks and could not be thrown away. It has also caused the new products produced by 20 10 to be insufficiently digested, and the price of 20 10 will continue to rise steadily, faster than in 2009, and it is also a mountain. Cornus officinalis is more brilliant than any variety at 20 10, and it will be eaten in all markets, including production enterprises. This year, the number of drug dealers investing in Cornus officinalis has increased several times compared with every year, because all varieties have increased in price, and only Cornus officinalis is risk-free and the price is at a low price. Just like this year's raspberry, the price of new products has dropped very low, and many people are afraid to start. As soon as the new products are finished, everyone knows that the price has increased, and the low-priced goods are gone. Unfortunately, the opportunity was lost like this. Cornus officinalis will definitely be like this this year.

At present, the price of Cornus officinalis has not aroused the interest of growers, and there are few new planting behaviors. The cost of collection and processing is gradually increasing, and the production efficiency is shrinking. This year, the market price of this product has been hovering around 14 yuan, with only small profits and no hoarding income. At present, Cornus officinalis has entered a new production season, and according to the production area report, the main production area has reduced production. The quality of the new products listed recently is poor, and the price is around 14 yuan. Better quality goods will not be available until more than 20 days later. It is predicted that the price of Cornus officinalis will increase this year compared with the previous period.

According to the author's analysis, Cornus officinalis is expected to have a turning point in the market in the next few years after nearly a decade of trough crawling. During the new production this year, there may be a preliminary crescent market. One reason is that its personality cycle is approaching, and the other is that its current price is low, which is inconsistent with the rising trend of other varieties. Although the power of demand is not strong in the contradiction between supply and demand, with the change of time, various favorable factors will synthesize a strong support point to promote the qualitative change of the price of Cornus officinalis.