Historically, the high price of sugar will not exceed 6 months. If the international raw sugar price falls to 10 cent, the cost of imported sugar will be less than 3000 yuan/ton. In addition, the high sugar price this year will stimulate farmers to grow sugar, and the international and domestic output will increase greatly. The price will be around 3,500 yuan to 3,800 yuan next year. Because of futures delivery, the futures price requires higher quality of sugar, ranging from 3,000 yuan to 4,800 yuan.
In 2005/06, the domestic sugar output of sugar-making enterprises was 8.82 million tons, less than last year, and the total amount of imported sugar and national sugar storage was 6.5438+0.4 million tons. It is estimated that the total sugar supply this year is10.384 million tons. With the increase of production in Guangxi, Yunnan, Guangdong and other major producing areas next year, it is estimated that the domestic sugar production will reach 1 100 to1.5 million tons. However, in recent years, the consumption of sugar has gradually decreased, especially since 2004, the consumption of sugar in 2004 was 6.5438+0.08 million tons, in 2005 it was 6.5438+0.04 million tons, and in 2006 it was 6.5438+00/kloc-0.08 million tons.
According to market analysis, there are two main reasons for the decline in sugar consumption: one is the continuous rise in prices, and the other is the development of alternative industries such as corn syrup. It is reported that the price per ton of sugar was more than 2,000 yuan in 2004, rose to more than 3,000 yuan in 2005, and rose to more than 4,000 yuan this year. The rising price not only inhibits consumption, but also stimulates the development of sugar substitute industries such as corn syrup.
The insiders believe that 3,000 yuan to 4,800 yuan is a reasonable range for Zheng sugar futures prices.