The direct losses of financial institutions in China are quite limited. Due to the credit guarantee of the U.S. government, the large amount of U.S. institutional bonds held by China financial institutions will not be lost. But in the era of globalization,

The turmoil in the peripheral financial market will have a negative transmission effect on China's financial market to some extent.

Lu Ting: The impact of the global financial tsunami on China's financial market is complicated. First of all, the losses caused by direct investment of financial institutions are relatively small. According to preliminary statistics, China's total

Holding overseas corporate bonds is about $654.38+0.2 billion, of which only a small part is affected. For example, the total amount of funds lent by Bank of China to Lehman Brothers is about $720 million. In terms of investors in foreign exchange reserves

On the other hand, by the end of July, China held US$ 51900 million in US Treasury bonds and about US$ 444 billion in institutional bonds. For American institutional bonds, the federal government of the United States has guaranteed this.

There should be no problem as long as the holding expires.

Second, as a matter of fact, due to the recent financial market turmoil, the price of US Treasury bonds is rising. This is because people find it more unsafe to hold other assets, and they are more willing to go.

Holding us treasury bonds. Of course there are risks. A large number of treasury bonds issued as a result of American rescue operations will inevitably lead to more money supply. In the medium and long term, it will raise the United States.

The interest rate of debt and the depreciation of the dollar will cause certain losses to domestic fixed-income assets denominated in dollars. But this is just a risk. The exchange rate of the US dollar involves the US economy and the world.

The economy, the money supply of the United States, the money supply of other economies and other factors, so the weakening of the dollar value may not necessarily happen in the future.

As for whether the medium and long-term interest rate in the United States will go up, in fact, we must first understand what the "interest rate" is. At present, the federal benchmark interest rate is only 2%, and there is a great possibility of further interest rate reduction.

It's huge. Interest rates on US Treasury bonds have also been falling recently. However, due to the weakening of market confidence and mutual distrust, the lending rate between financial institutions has been rising, which is what happened during this period.

The so-called credit crunch. In this case, the US government has been expanding the money supply through various means recently, aiming at boosting market confidence and lowering loan interest rates.

. Of course, as mentioned above, if the United States issues more bonds, it will raise the interest rate of national debt in the medium and long term, but this is not the main issue currently under consideration.

Li Daokui: In the short term, the impact on China's financial institutions is limited, because China's financial institutions tend to be conservative in investment, which is very large in investment banks such as the United States and Lehman.

Some of them are American and European institutions. In addition, we should also pay attention to whether our overseas institutions have investment, such as some enterprises with Chinese names, which have a large amount of foreign exchange on hand.

Whether any investment has been made is unknown.

In the medium term, risks exist. If the American financial market can be stabilized in the medium term, financial institutions will no longer go bankrupt and the financial market will enter a period of rectification, then it will develop in the next six months.

All kinds of funds invested by the state in China may be reversed and returned, which will lead to the devaluation of local currencies, the decline of investment scale, the slowdown of economic growth and even recession in emerging market countries.

The United States will also take some measures to keep the exchange rate of the US dollar stable against other currencies in the world. If the status of the American financial industry further declines, it will form a further blow to the United States. Until/very

On the exchange rate issue, I believe that the United States will not make too many demands on the exchange rate issue between China and the United States, mainly because it hopes that China will not withdraw from US Treasury bonds.

Huang: The impact on China's financial system is mainly reflected in the investment of domestic financial institutions in overseas securities markets. Judging from the development of the current financial crisis, financial institutions are facing

The biggest problem is investor confidence first, followed by liquidity. Undoubtedly, with the sharp drop in international asset prices, China's investment in overseas securities markets has suffered losses. but

These foreign assets themselves are purchased in foreign exchange, so they will not have a significant impact on domestic liquidity. In addition, for many financial institutions, these losses are only on the books.

Yes So far, it is not clear whether the financial crisis in the United States will trigger systemic risks of domestic financial institutions. Most large financial institutions in China are owned or controlled by the state and will not appear.

The phenomenon of bankruptcy. Even non-state-owned banks are supported by implicit government guarantees, so there will be no systemic risks.

From the perspective of capital flow, it is possible for some short-term capital outflows and the withdrawal of investment in the securities market, but China's huge foreign exchange reserves are more than enough to withstand this impact. in addition

In addition, if the value of the US dollar fluctuates greatly, it may make it difficult for the RMB exchange rate to remain pegged to the US dollar. The progress in the last 2-3 months shows that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar fluctuates more and more.

The exchange rate of a basket of currencies is becoming more and more stable. This is actually a good phenomenon, which means that the exchange rate policy has really started to implement the controlled reference to a basket of currencies proposed in 2005.

On the contrary, it can increase the stability of exchange rate.