Due to the influence of politics, nature, culture and other factors, economic activities show their own prosperity and

The cyclical rhythm of the recession and the fluctuation of the stock market advance and amplify these effects, thus showing periodic ups and downs, which is called a barometer of social economy. The long-term fluctuation of the stock market is obviously influenced by national macro-fiscal and monetary policies such as interest rates and taxes, and there are more factors that can affect the short-term fluctuation of the stock market. Therefore, it is necessary for stock investors to pay attention to macro fundamentals.

Of course, it is difficult for ordinary investors to deeply study the macro-economy and the fundamentals of listed companies. Years of practice show that the key to grasping the fundamentals of the market lies in grasping the hot topics and hot plates of the market.

For example, at the beginning of 2000, almost all market participants participated in the upsurge of Kechuang.com, and the share price of Kechuang.com soared. But most ordinary investors made up their minds to go in at the end of the market and were trapped. In the reality of the bursting of the international network bubble, they are still infatuated with holding positions or covering positions all the way, and the losses are sighing. By the mid-term of 200 1, the earnings per share of the famous technology stock 0938 Ziguang was only 0.003 yuan, which was on the verge of loss. The loyal followers of these technology stocks even said that it was the main force that deliberately suppressed it-it can be seen how harmful the inertia and inertia of thinking are!

On the contrary, the real estate market was booming in the first half of 200010, and with the expectation of China's entry into the WTO at the end of the year, the main funds gradually intervened in real estate, ports and textile stocks, which made these stocks go up obviously and went against the trend in the market crash-unfortunately, most investors once again played an "unconscious" role, and the tragedy will surely be staged again!

In order to facilitate readers to accurately grasp the whole stock market, here we give a panoramic description of the speculative trend of China stock market and major sectors in recent years.

At present, there are more than 1000 A shares circulating in the secondary market of China stock market. These listed companies are mixed, each with its own merits. Let's classify them one by one according to different classification methods.

First, by industry:

For example, according to the latest industry classification guidelines of listed companies in China, listed companies are divided into 13 categories: 1, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery; 2. Extractive industries; 3. manufacturing industry; 4, electricity, gas and water production and supply industry; 5. Construction industry; 6. Transportation and storage; 7. Information technology industry; 8. Wholesale and retail trade; 9. Finance and insurance; 10, real estate industry; 1 1, social service industry; 12, communications and cultural industries; 13, comprehensive class;

Then, judging the industries supported and developed by economic policies from the perspective of China's macro-control policies, these industries often enjoy various preferential measures in economic policies because of the strong support of national macro-economic policies. Due to the operation of the country, this big machine will inevitably lead to the rapid growth of the economic index of this industry. Therefore, enterprises with production monopoly in this industry will be the most direct beneficiaries and have good expectations for the high growth of future performance.

For example, since 1998, the implementation of China's strategic plan of rejuvenating the country through science and technology has led to the birth of the concept of high-tech in the secondary market of China's stock market, which has led to a vigorous two-year bull market for high-tech stocks; During 1998-2000, the high-tech sector was a dark horse, such as: 0035 Zhongjian, 0063 ZTE; 0682 Dongfang Electronics, 0839 citic guoan; 600 100 Tsinghua Tongfang; 600076 Jade Bird Huaguang and other stocks. At the beginning of 1999, in order to achieve the goal of expanding domestic economic demand and thus stimulating and realizing national economic growth, the state adopted the policy of expanding infrastructure construction from point to area. As a result, many infrastructure stocks such as 0425 Xugong, 0429 Guangdong Expressway, 0680 Shantui, 0608 Sunshine and other stocks closely related to infrastructure emerged.

Insight into the industries supported and favored by the national economic policy and the adjustment of national industrial policy, and attention to the business opportunities brought by the adjustment of national industrial policy to the industry and its upstream and downstream related enterprises will be a key content for investors to improve their trading level.

For example, in 2000, the international oil price rose, which promoted the direct benefits of crude oil exploitation enterprises and oil exploitation facilities production enterprises, and finally led to the abnormal trend of the stock prices of such listed companies in the secondary market. For example, 0956 Zhongyuan Oil and Gas Company, 0406 Petroleum Daming Company, and 0852 Oil Exploitation Facility Manufacturer Jiangzuan Company. On the contrary, due to the rising international oil price, the production cost of its downstream enterprises-petrochemical enterprises has increased, further narrowing the profit space of this industry, so 60087 1 Yizheng Chemical Fiber and 600688 Shanghai Petrochemical 200 1 reported early warning and pre-loss. Many investors have confused the above two types of companies and made wrong judgments.

Second, according to the performance classification:

1. Excellent listed companies: These listed companies have unique industries or large-scale market share or monopoly advantages within industries, and maintain high profits every year. However, due to the herding effect of chasing hot spots in the market, these white horse stocks are often ignored and abandoned by market participants because of the general market downturn or the so-called high-tech concept and asset restructuring concept, resulting in their share prices being seriously underestimated and hovering at a low level for a long time. Such stocks are like gold buried in the beach waiting to be mined, and a correct and reasonable market positioning is urgently needed.

For example, 1996 launched a big bull market with blue chips as the ignition variety. Due to the value of blue-chip stocks, the market has gradually evolved into speculative components in the past two years, such as: 000 1 Shenzhen Development; 0539 Guangdong Electric Power; 054 1 Foshan lighting; 600839 Sichuan Changhong; 600690 Qingdao Haier; 6007 18 Dongda Apai and others have all stepped out of the magnificent market.

2. Growth-oriented listed companies: It is not surprising that such companies have average performance on the surface, but with the company's fund raising, share allotment or additional issuance gradually in place and gradually put on the market, it has produced benefits. It will greatly improve the profitability of the company in the future (especially the investment and development prospects of the funds raised by these listed companies with new profit growth points are worthy of attention. We must do a detailed research report and have an objective expectation of the size of capital investment and profit, so as to have a reasonable position for such enterprises in the secondary market.

For example: 0682 Dongfang Electronics and 0730 Environmental Protection Shares in 1998; 1996 0539 Guangdong Electric Power, 0055 Shenzhen Fangda; 60062 1 Shanghai Jinling and other high-growth enterprises, the simultaneous expansion of corporate income and corporate equity has won rich returns for medium and long-term investors!

There are also some enterprises that have many hidden assets that are not valued by ordinary investors. One day, when these hidden assets are caught for some reason, they will also be reflected in the stock price. (For example: 0023 in 1995 has reserved a piece of land with great appreciation potential; 1997, the land was resold, and huge non-operating income was obtained, which was reflected in the stock price, which rose from around 7 yuan to around 28 yuan ...).

3. Listed companies with poor performance: Due to historical burdens or a series of problems such as industry, management methods and small scale, such companies have suffered losses year after year and their profitability has deteriorated year by year. Because of their poor fundamentals, these listed companies have become the garbage that everyone dare not avoid in the circulating stocks in the secondary market. It is precisely because this kind of stock is notorious that the price is very low. However, low stock prices often contain abundant investment opportunities. If you want to withdraw from the market, the only way out for such listed companies is to improve their profitability through asset mergers and acquisitions, so as to get rid of embarrassment and achieve a new turn. This is also the real big black horse haunt plate. .......

For example, in the past, 0409 Huali Hi-Tech was renamed Stone Hi-Tech because of the existence of Stone Group; 0525 The reorganization of Ning Tianlong and Red Sun; 0403 Yichun Project and Sanjiu Pharmaceutical Restructuring; 0402 Chongqing Huaya and Financial Street Restructuring; The most classic cases, such as 0583 Sichuan Long March and terrain software reorganization, are many successful cases. These junk stocks, which everyone used to watch, have been reorganized into high-priced aristocratic stocks! 200 1, 60083 1ST Yellow River Branch, 04 16ST domestic products and other T-family stocks went against the market, and their prices rose to blue-chip stocks with excellent performance.

For listed companies with poor performance, we should pay attention to the detailed analysis and investigation of the basic situation of the difficulty and intensity of restructuring of such enterprises and the debt burden of enterprises, and fully estimate the huge risks brought by the abortion of the asset restructuring plan of this enterprise.

III. Listed companies by region.

In the past, the division method was usually Hainan plate (Qiong); Hubei plate (Hubei); Sichuan Plate (Sichuan); Henan plate (Henan); Shandong plate (Shandong); Hunan Plate (Hunan); Jiangsu and Zhejiang plate; Shenzhen-Shanghai local plate and Pudong plate. These plates located in different regions often bring infinite business vitality because of different national industrial policies and strategic plans.

For example, in 199 1 year, when the CPC Central Committee put forward and formulated the industrial preferential policies for Pudong development, savvy strategic investors in China stock market promptly threw out the fashionable new term Pudong concept, and from then on, Pudong's two bridges (Waigaoqiao, Pudong Jinqiao and Lujiazui) soared. However, the stocks of Hainan plate left a lot of bubbles in the real estate fever and tourism fever in the early years, so that most of the fundamentals of the company were not very good, which left endless imagination space for the theme of speculation and reorganization of Hainan plate in the future. All these factors caused the later poverty (Joan) to be extremely evil (Hubei); Sichuan is brave; Han; Jiangsu and Zhejiang soft statement ...

Since 2000, due to the implementation of the strategic plan of China's western development, reflected in the stock market, regional plates have been re-divided and differentiated. At present, it is usually divided into Shanghai local stocks, Shenzhen local stocks, western concepts, ethnic minority concepts and frontier concept stocks. Under the strategic planning of national macro-control, the western concept and frontier concept stocks stand out. Such as: 600737 Tunhe in Xinjiang, 600645 Wang Chunhua, 600 165 Ningxia Hengli, 0552 Gan Changfeng; 0557 Yinguangsha and other stocks have embarked on a long road.

Due to a series of positive financial support policies adopted by the local government, local small-cap stocks in Shanghai and local stocks in Shenzhen have produced a good intermediate market every year. In the second half of 200 1 year, Shanghai real estate stocks represented by Pudong plate became a beautiful landscape in the general downward trend.

Four, according to the size of the listed share capital can be divided into large-cap stocks, medium-cap stocks and small-cap stocks.

According to the particularity of its share capital structure, it can be divided into heavyweights (such as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank 600000, China Petrochemical 600028, Jilin Chemical 06 18, Baoshan Iron and Steel 600019; 000 1 deep development; 600839 Sichuan Changhong). No concept stocks (60065 1 Le Fei Audio, 600652 ATV, 600653 Brilliance Group, 60060 1 Founder Technology, etc.). ). The market is also used to being divided into new shares and sub-new shares according to the time of listing. ...

Five, the use of major political events speculation theme stocks.

For example, 1997 Hong Kong's return, 1999 Macao's return, and 200 1 Olympic bid have all caused speculation in relevant sectors.

According to the above situation, we classified more than 0/000 circulating A shares in the secondary market, which provided great convenience for us to capture hot plates and leading stocks.

As we pointed out earlier, the main force of the market hovers between major sectors and themes. For example, in the whole year of operation in 2000, market players opened positions in the science and technology network plate and the asset restructuring plate respectively. At the beginning of the year, we took advantage of the market hotspots at that time to boost the shares of Kechuang Network, and quietly opened positions in the stocks of asset restructuring at the freezing point of the market at that time. After August, 2000, we used the funds returned from the previous online stocks to pull the assets reorganization stocks. 200 1 In the first half of the year, yantai wanhua mainly speculated in new shares, and moved to real estate, ports and infrastructure stocks in the second half. Effectively use funds to raise funds, better realize the effective utilization of funds, and make two waves of big market every year. Small and medium-sized retail investors who lack the ability to look at the overall situation are always half-baked and scarred all year round.

Institutions with little capital basically control a long-term bull stock with independent trend every year.

The varieties that the main capital does not participate in are often silent and in a long decline.

After a comprehensive analysis of the macro market situation, it is not difficult to draw such a conclusion:

In order to get a good return on investment, we must seize the hot varieties of hot plates for short-term operation.

Line arbitrage operation. If you can't judge the trend of the main funds, it is impossible to make a profit in the stock market.

For the specific listed companies in the hot plate, we try our best to choose the key concerns with small circulation and leading industry. For example, in the recent real estate stock market, Shanghai local real estate stocks are obviously in the leading position in the industry, among which 600663 Lujiazui, 600823 Shimao and 600639 Pudong Jinqiao are the strongest and should be the first choice.

Conclusion: Mid-line stock selection must be carried out in the hot industries and sectors in the market at that time.