As the main economic system of a country, the exchange rate system plays an important role in the economic development of a country. The evolution and reform of RMB exchange rate system can be divided into the following periods:
1. Exchange rate system in the period of national economic recovery (1949 to 1952). The exchange rate system in this period can basically be regarded as a floating exchange rate system. The exchange rate of RMB is mainly adjusted according to the weighted average of the export price of RMB against the US dollar, the import price and the daily necessities and living expenses of overseas Chinese. Therefore, the exchange rate changes in this period showed the characteristics of violent fluctuations. For example, 1 October 0949+65438+65438,1USD against 80 yuan RMB (RMB here refers to the old RMB).
The second is the exchange rate system under the planned economy system (1953 to 1980). China's exchange rate system in this period can be divided into two stages: (1) 1953 to 1972. At this stage, the exchange rate of RMB is basically stable, and the exchange rate remains at the level of 1 USD = 2.46 RMB. At present, RMB exchange rate is no longer used as a tool to regulate foreign economic exchanges, and foreign trade profits and losses are all borne and balanced by the state finance. (2) 1973 rpm 1980. At this stage, due to the oil crisis of 1973, the world price level rose, and the floating exchange rate system was widely implemented in western countries, and the exchange rate fluctuated frequently. In order to adapt to this change in the international exchange rate system and the adverse effects brought by the exchange rate changes of major international currencies in reality, the RMB exchange rate is adjusted by using the weighted average calculation method of "a basket of currencies" according to the principles of being conducive to RMB pricing and settlement, being conducive to trade and being accepted by foreign trade, and referring to the floating exchange rates of western countries. Therefore, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was gradually adjusted from 1973 L USD to 2.46 RMB to 1.50 yuan RMB in 1980, and the US dollar depreciated by 39.2% against RMB. In the same period, the exchange rate of British pound was adjusted from 1 GBP to RMB 5.9l to RMB 3.44, and GBP depreciated by 4 1.6%.
Third, the dual exchange rate system in the period of economic system transition (198 1 to 1994). This period can be divided into three stages: (1) 198 1 to 1984. Initially, the dual exchange rate system is implemented, that is, in addition to the official exchange rate, the internal settlement price of foreign exchange for import and export trade settlement and economic benefit accounting of another foreign trade unit is determined according to the current export exchange cost and fixed at 2.80 yuan. Affected by internal and external factors, the official exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was lowered from 198 1.50 yuan in July to 2.30 yuan 1984 in July, and the RMB depreciated by 53.3% against the US dollar. (2) Return to the single exchange rate system from 1985 199 1 in April. The exchange rate continued to adjust downward, from 2.30 in 1984 in July to 2.80 in 10 in October, and then it was lowered several times. Although the single exchange rate system has been restored at this stage, in practice, with the increase of retained foreign exchange, the transaction volume of foreign exchange adjustment is increasing and the price is getting higher and higher, so it is nominally a single exchange rate and actually forms a new dual exchange rate. (3) From April to the end of June, 5438+099 1. At this stage, the RMB exchange rate will be fine-tuned. In more than two years, the official exchange rate has been slightly lowered dozens of times, but it still can't keep up with the changes in export exchange costs and foreign exchange swap prices. By the end of 1993, the official exchange rate and swap exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar were 5.7 and 8.7 respectively. It can be seen that the evolution and reform of RMB exchange rate system during this period showed the characteristics of the coexistence of official exchange rate and swap market exchange rate, and the gradual downward adjustment of official exchange rate.
Fourthly, 1994 exchange rate system based on market mechanism after the exchange rate reform. June 1 994+1October1Cancel the dual exchange rate system, merge the official exchange rate of RMB with the market exchange rate, and implement a single managed floating exchange rate system based on supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. On April 4th, the 1994 inter-bank foreign exchange market was officially put into operation, and designated foreign exchange banks listed and traded foreign exchange to customers according to the foreign exchange quotation published by the People's Bank of China. During this period, the RMB exchange rate has the following characteristics: (1) The RMB exchange rate is no longer determined directly by the government, but determined and adjusted by the designated foreign exchange banks themselves; (2) Designated foreign exchange banks shall form a unified exchange rate according to the exchange rate determined by market supply and demand; (3) After the Asian currency crisis, the RMB exchange rate was in an ultra-stable state and pegged to the US dollar (see table 1).
Looking at the evolution and reform of RMB exchange rate system in China, it is not difficult to find that it has the following five characteristics: (1) The choice of RMB exchange rate system is not rigid, and the exchange rate system and its changes are basically constantly adjusted according to changes at home and abroad; (2) Changes in domestic and international price levels or export costs are the main basis for RMB exchange rate adjustment; (3) The exchange rate is mainly lowered, especially after the reform and opening up; (4) The dual-track system has great influence, and the government intervention is strong; (5) Although the exchange rate system has been floating since 1994, in fact, the exchange rate system has been fixed, pegged to the US dollar, and the exchange rate formation mechanism is unreasonable.
Evolution trend of international exchange rate system
During the reform of RMB exchange rate system in China, great changes have taken place in the international exchange rate system. Countries have different attitudes towards which exchange rate system to choose, but according to the information of the International Monetary Fund, there is also a trend that more countries choose a more flexible exchange rate system. For example, before 1999 changed the traditional classification of exchange rate regimes, 64 countries had pegged or inelastic exchange rate regimes, 17 countries had limited flexibility or elasticity, and10/0 countries had more flexibility or higher flexibility (including adjustment according to a set of indicators, managed floating and independent floating). 1999 IMF reclassified the exchange rate system. No matter according to the old method or the new classification, most countries and regions choose more flexible exchange rate system in practice, which also shows that this is an important orientation or reference for a country's future exchange rate system choice.
Characteristics and direction of RMB exchange rate reform
On July 2, 2005, China reformed the RMB exchange rate system, and the RMB exchange rate was adjusted upwards, that is, China began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. According to the reasonable and balanced exchange rate level, the RMB appreciated by 2% against the US dollar. This reform has at least two characteristics: (1) "minor reform". First of all, the exchange rate is actually pegged to a single dollar and adjusted with reference to a basket of currencies. The basket currencies will be selected from countries and regions closely related to China's international economic transactions. Specifically, it is to comprehensively consider the currencies of countries and regions that account for a large proportion in China's foreign trade, foreign debt, foreign direct investment and other activities, form a currency basket, and give it corresponding weight in the basket. Secondly, it shows that the exchange rate level has been slightly adjusted by 2%. (2) focus on reforming the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, rather than the quantitative increase or decrease of the RMB exchange rate level. Perfecting the exchange rate formation mechanism is the highlight of China's exchange rate system reform at present and in the future. (3) Take the initiative to reform without succumbing to external pressure. It should be said that this reform has kept the main exchange rate system unchanged, and carried out partial but crucial reforms on this basis, which will play a positive role in preventing the exchange rate risk of single peg to the US dollar, improving the exchange rate formation mechanism, maintaining the stability of foreign trade and economic environment, and promoting the basic balance of international payments and the stable development of China's economy.
Of course, the reform will not stop there. Judging from the practice and experience of international exchange rate system selection, a country's exchange rate system can be specifically determined and reformed according to a country's specific situation, such as the overall economic development, market opening and development degree, and the overall trend is more flexible. So is our country. From the above analysis, we can see that China is not rigid in the choice and reform of exchange rate system. In the future, according to the trend of international exchange rate system selection and the actual situation in China, we can further reform the exchange rate formation mechanism, improve the formation environment of market exchange rate, implement a real exchange rate system with a target range floating up and down, and gradually transition to a more flexible exchange rate system. What is particularly emphasized here is that maintaining an exchange rate system continuously at no cost will hide great risks, and continuous and unilateral upward or downward floating is not the best choice for exchange rate adjustment.
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