First, the attack on Nigeria caused a global supply shortage.
On Tuesday, international oil prices rose, due to the expected decline in domestic inventories in the United States and concerns about the global supply shortage caused by the attack on Nigeria's oil industry.
According to the latest results of Reuters survey, it is estimated that US crude oil inventories will decrease by 2.7 million barrels last week, the third consecutive week of decline.
Oil prices rebounded in the past two trading days, after the Avengers in Nigeria's Niger Delta vowed to reduce the country's crude oil production to zero. Nigeria was the largest oil producer in Africa last year. The Nigerian government says it is starting negotiations with The Avengers.
According to the latest news, due to the recent military strikes, the daily output of Bunny light crude oil in Nigeria is expected to drop by 6,543,800+0.7 million barrels. With the decline of crude oil imports in the United States, the recent supply disruptions in many places, including Canada, Libya, Venezuela and Nigeria, have caused American refiners to consume a lot of domestic reserves.
However, the reconstruction of the wildfire disaster area in Alberta, Canada is progressing steadily, and a large number of crude oil companies have begun to resume production. However, the average daily output of at least 400,000 barrels has not yet been restored.
2.API crude oil inventories decreased by 3.569 million barrels.
At 4: 30am Beijing time on Wednesday (June 8th), the data released by american petroleum institute (API) showed that as of the week of June 3rd, the crude oil inventories of API in the United States decreased by 3.569 million barrels to 535.6 million barrels, and the survey analysts in Reuters expected a decrease of 3.5 million barrels, which was basically in line with expectations.
According to the specific data, as of the week of June 3rd, American API crude oil inventories decreased by 3.569 million barrels, which is expected to decrease by 3.5 million barrels, basically in line with expectations, and the previous value increased by 2.35 1.0000 barrels. In that week, API gasoline inventory increased by 760,000 barrels, which is expected to decrease by 6,543,800 barrels, and the previous value decreased by 6,543,800 barrels. During the week, API refined oil inventory increased by 270,000 barrels, which is expected to decrease by 3.5 million barrels, and the previous value increased by 2.35 1 10,000 barrels.
American petroleum institute also said that as of the week of June 3rd, crude oil inventories in Cushing area of API in the United States decreased by 6,543,800+3,090 barrels, and the previous value decreased by 6,543,800+3,600 barrels. Oil prices have been supported.
Three. EIA monthly report raises oil price expectation
Us energy information administration (EIA) released a monthly short-term energy outlook report, which raised the global crude oil demand growth forecast by 20,000 barrels per day in 20 16, and expected to increase by10.45 million barrels per day. The forecast of global crude oil demand growth in 20 17 is lowered by 70,000 barrels per day, with a year-on-year increase of 654.38+0.47 million barrels per day.
At the same time, the report raised the US crude oil demand growth forecast of 20140,000 barrels per day from the previous140,000 barrels per day to 220,000 barrels per day, and lowered the US crude oil demand growth forecast of 20 17 from the previous120,000 barrels per day to 60,000 barrels per day. In addition, this year's US crude oil production will be reduced by 830,000 barrels per day to 8.6 million barrels per day, and next year's output is expected to be reduced by 4,654.38+million barrels per day to 8,654.38+09 million barrels per day, all in line with previous estimates.
EIA's monthly report seems to have eased the market's concerns. The agency raised the expectations of WTI and Brent oil prices, and predicted that US crude oil production would remain unchanged in 20 16 and 20 17 years.
To sum up, driven by the above three favorable factors, the price of crude oil successfully broke through the 50 mark.