In 2008, China not only experienced the once-in-a-century low temperature, freezing rain and snow, the 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake and other serious natural disasters, but also was affected by the global financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. In an extraordinary year, the party and the state made decisive decisions and a series of countermeasures were introduced. Grain production has achieved a bumper harvest for the fifth consecutive year, and the total output is expected to reach? 52.5 billion kilograms, an increase of 4.7% over 2007. Due to the comprehensive influence of various factors at home and abroad, a new pattern of grain purchase and sale prices appeared in China in 2008. This paper takes Xiangfan City, Hubei Province, one of the top ten summer grain producing areas in China and one of the 20 large commodity grain bases, as an example, analyzes the changes of China's grain purchase and sale prices in 2008, and predicts the changing trend of grain prices in 2009.

Looking at the market price changes of wheat and special flour in Xiangfan City in 2008, the main characteristics are as follows:

First, the overall purchase price of wheat is on the rise.

The purchase price of wheat rose from 1. 43 yuan per kilogram in1month to the peak of 1.59 yuan in1month, and then declined. From a quarterly perspective, market prices vary greatly.

Prices were stable in the first quarter. The purchase price is between 1.43 yuan and 1.46 yuan. Due to the bumper wheat harvest in Xiangfan in 2007, the total output reached1441000000 kg, and the purchase amount reached12550000 kg, which was the highest in history and the grain source was sufficient, so the market price did not change much.

The purchase price of wheat began to rise in the second quarter. From 1.46 yuan in April to 1.53 yuan in June. Since the market price of wheat in Xiangfan City is lower than the national minimum purchase price of wheat, the country has started the minimum purchase price of wheat in Xiangfan City, which is medium white wheat per kilogram 1.44 yuan, red wheat and miscellaneous wheat per kilogram 1.38 yuan. In 2007, the yield of wheat in Xiangfan City not only increased, but also the quality was generally good. The average grade is above the national standard level 2, and most of them are in the national standard 1 level. Xiangfan new wheat was listed in mid-May, and the purchase price of wheat in the city rose accordingly.

In the third quarter, the purchase price of wheat rose steadily. From 1.55 yuan in July to 1.56 yuan in September. The third quarter is the peak of listing of new wheat in Xiangfan city. Enterprises that implement the minimum purchase price of wheat are open to buying farmers' wheat, and many social channels dare not rashly raise prices to buy wheat. Therefore, the purchase price of wheat in Xiangfan city has not changed much at the national minimum purchase price level during this period.

In the fourth quarter, the purchase price of wheat was mixed. 1October 1.59 yuan,1October1.59 yuan, 12 copies fell back to 1.56 yuan. At this stage, the purchase price varies greatly. The main reasons are: first, the new wheat can be processed directly when it is mature, and the purchase volume of processing enterprises increases; Second, the state raises the auction price of wheat, which is generally around 1.72 yuan. It is better for processing enterprises to buy wheat from the auction market rather than locally. Third, with the arrival of the peak season of flour sales, the demand for raw materials for wheat processing has increased.

Second, the sales price of flour (special flour) is mixed and generally stable.

Sales prices were stable in the first quarter. The wholesale price of special powder 1 month is between 2. 14 yuan -2. 12 yuan. The reason why the price has not changed much is that the sales of wheat bran and tail powder, by-products of wheat processing into flour, have decreased. The Spring Festival in 2007 took place in February. Farmers started to kill pigs and feed piglets in January, and the demand for feed decreased, so the demand for by-products decreased, and the price of main products could not be raised.

The selling price of flour increased slightly in the second quarter. Special powder rose from 2. 12 yuan in April to 2. 16 yuan in June. This stage is a period of green crops, especially in May and June, when social consumption increased. Although some new wheat is on the market, it can't be used directly because the post-ripening period has not yet arrived. At the same time, the recovery of aquaculture has increased the demand for by-products.