New energy is strong, how can the motor ride the wind and waves?

Author/Baked buns under the stars

Editor/spinach starry sky

Typesetting/small fish under the stars

A piece of paper, two tracks are boiling.

On the 22nd, important departments issued plans to improve the energy efficiency of motors, vowing to vigorously develop high-efficiency and energy-saving motors. In order to achieve the goal of double carbon, various industries are also fighting.

Motor can be called the electric tiger in modern society, and it is the main power-consuming terminal product in many fields. Moreover, with the increasing penetration rate of new energy in the future, there will be more and more motors for wind turbines and lithium battery cars. At the same time, the system also proposes to strengthen the research and development of rare earth permanent magnet motors (because of high efficiency and low energy consumption).

Therefore, the introduction of this favorable document has brought carnival to the motor and rare earth track. The motor sector rose more than 5% in two days, and the cumulative increase of rare earth concept stocks since June 10 was 2 1.28% on average.

We introduced the related situation of wind turbines and rare earth resources. Today, the author will take you to a plate. What is the current development of the motor track of new energy vehicles? There are no investment opportunities for investors.

As an important power source of new energy vehicles, if the battery is the heart of the vehicle, then the motor is the limbs of the vehicle, which converts electrical energy into mechanical energy and is responsible for executing the master's orders.

The performance of motor determines the main performance indexes of automobile running, such as climbing ability and acceleration ability. Speaking of motor types, in China, the current permanent magnet synchronous motor has basically replaced AC asynchronous motor because of its excellent performance (higher conversion efficiency and smaller size) (the market share is only 1%). Moreover, Model3/Y, BYD Korea EV, Li ONE and other models on the market have all introduced dual-motor four-wheel drive models. A car with two motors is more powerful.

Permanent magnet synchronous motor, as its name implies, can not be separated from magnetic materials, that is, NdFeB (rare earth elements such as Nd and B are added to iron and melted). The cost of NdFeB accounts for more than 30% of the motor, almost all of which is in China's hands (the author's inner OS: there is such a mine at last, so there is no need to buy it abroad). With such a high cost ratio, it is no wonder that when the motor industry is good, the upstream rare earths are jubilant.

After talking about the motor itself, let's look at the participants in the industry. A car, whether ternary or lithium, whether pure or hybrid, always needs a motor. And the structure of the motor is more complicated, so there are more players. Terminal vehicle manufacturers, parts suppliers and even third-party motor companies are also involved.

Let's take a look at international automobile manufacturers (such as BMW and Volkswagen). ) that is what we are familiar with. The motor system is mainly developed jointly with parts suppliers, forming a strong binding relationship. For example, Ford and Magna, Daimler and Bosch.

In contrast, in China, a hundred schools of thought have contended in recent years, and perhaps this trend has been broken for some time. For example, BYD (002594), a leading car company, develops its own batteries, motors and electronic controls, and never wants to be stuck by others. For other car companies, motors are either provided by their subsidiaries or purchased from third-party companies. Third-party companies used to be motor players in all walks of life. Since the new energy rail caught fire, they also got a piece of the action (for example, Founder Motor 002 196, which used to be mainly engaged in sewing machine motors, window lifting and seat adjustment motors). The market share of car companies and third parties is about half to half, basically achieving domestic substitution, and BYD has taken the top spot.

In the next five years, driven by the sales of dual-motor four-wheel drive vehicles and new energy vehicles, EVTank predicts that the shipment of drive motors for new energy vehicles in China will exceed100000 units in 2025, with the growth rate remaining above 30%. What a vast market space.

How to develop lithium battery automobile motors in the future? The first keyword that pops up in my mind is-flat wire motor.

Flat wire motor, to put it bluntly, is to change the copper wire wound by the traditional motor from round wire to flat wire, so that the gap can be filled, thus improving the power density of the motor and reducing the cost.

At present, the penetration rate of flat-wire motors for new energy vehicles in China is about 28% (this figure will still be 14% in 2020). The models that use it, such as Euler R 1, Weilai ES6, Tesla Model Y, etc. , can be said to be crazy penetration. However, although the flat wire motor is good, it also has certain technical thresholds, such as more complicated processing technology and more difficult coating. Therefore, in the short term, the author is optimistic about the enterprises that already have the production capacity of flat wire motors, such as Jingda (600577), Great Wall Technology (603897) and Jinbei Electrician (002533). According to the current growth rate of the penetration rate of flat wire motors, such enterprises may enjoy a certain bonus.

The second future trend is integration. With the increasing demand for lightweight new energy vehicles, integrated motor system has become the mainstream direction of industry development. The word integration is a bit abstract. Take chestnuts for example. In 2020, Huawei released the DriveONE all-in-one machine and the three-in-one motor system. As can be seen from the name, the all-in-one machine system integrates seven main control parts, such as motor controller, motor and battery management system, and the three-in-one is motor controller, motor and reducer.

Needless to say, the benefits of integration are: improving efficiency, lightening cars and optimizing the supply chain process of car companies. According to statistics, the market share of three-in-one and above electric drive systems is only 51%(this figure will still be 37% in 2020).

Finally, let's jump out of new energy vehicles and see how motor giants in other fields have grown up. Whether other people's children are really superior.

The protagonist of the story is Yaskawa Electric Corporation (founded in 19 15). From the very beginning, servo motor (the first servo motor company in Japan) has grown into a global industrial leading enterprise. Throughout the protagonist's development history, the core driving force for growth can actually be summarized as three points:

1. Investment in science and technology is the primary productive force.

In the process of R&D, Yaskawa Electric Co., Ltd. will do it itself if it can, and merge if it can't, ensuring a two-pronged approach of "endogenous+epitaxial". The company continues to maintain R&D investment accounting for 4-5% of revenue. At the same time, we attach great importance to the protection of patented technology and establish our own technical moat, thus opening a virtuous circle.

2. Choice is more important than hard work

At the beginning of its establishment, An Chuan was not superior to other big companies such as Zhipu and Hitachi in motor products. If you can't keep up with big brother, then choose your own way. First of all, An Chuan took the lead in introducing the advanced German assembly line model into Japan, and expanded the production capacity of the factory to four times. Secondly, the concept of electromechanical integration is created, and an automated factory is formed.

3. Customer-centered to create value

An Chuan's top management once suggested that we should be as sensitive as dogs to find out what customers really need. This sentence really captures the needs of users accurately. This also laid a good foundation for An Chuan to gain a good reputation among customers.

Finally, to sum up, motors are an indispensable part of all walks of life. Although the domestic motor industry started late, it has developed rapidly, and now it can compete with foreign mainstream motor suppliers. The motor benefits from the high growth of new energy vehicles in the future, and the author continues to be optimistic.

Judging from the competition pattern, a hundred schools of thought contend, and automakers, joint ventures, and foreign monks (third-party enterprises) have entered the market one after another, each binding their own models. This model will continue in the future. As the two major trends of the future motor, flat wire motor and integration are quietly changing in the past two years, and high-speed growth and penetration are the main tone of the market.

The next golden age of automobiles has begun.