Caijing Contributor Ma Lin/Wen Yule/Editor
The express delivery giants finally couldn't hold on.
Just after the "Eleventh" holiday, the famous "Three Links and One Reach" in the express delivery industry came out with heavy news one after another: almost within 12 hours, ZTO Express and Dayun Express successively issued notices to raise the express delivery price, and Tong Yuan Express also announced the price increase news through the company's internal notice, and then withdrew it. Finally, we only promised not to raise prices during the "double 1 1" period. Shentong Express has no action for the time being, but it has also made it clear through the media that it does not rule out the possibility of price increases.
In the express delivery industry with fierce competition and serious homogenization, price is a very sensitive factor, and price increase may lead to customer loss. Express companies will not easily make a decision to raise prices unless they have to. This collective "price increase" happened one month before the busiest "double 1 1" express delivery business. According to the explanation of the courier company, the reasons for the increase in freight rates are very complicated, including materials, manpower, transportation and operating costs. However, the price increase of cartons this year is undoubtedly the most important driving factor.
The raw materials of cartons used in express delivery industry are corrugated paper and cardboard, which directly leads to the price increase of cartons, that is, the prices of these two paper products skyrocket.
According to the monitoring data provided by Caijing Zhuochuang Information, a commodity consulting agency, the average price of corrugated paper was 5,264 yuan/ton from 2065,438 to September 2007, up 23.79% from the previous month and up 105.75438+0% from the same period last year. The average price of paperboard was 57 13 yuan/ton, up 2 1.56% from the previous month and 84.80% from the same period last year.
Caijing reporter drew the price trend of corrugated paper and paperboard in the past year according to the data provided by Zhuo Chuang Information. It can be seen that the prices of these two kinds of paper have maintained rapid growth in the past year, and have accelerated in recent months, excluding the natural decline in prices caused by the fall in demand from the high point at the end of the year in the first half of the year.
After the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, the upward trend of these two paper products continues. By the end of June, 5438 +09 10, the average price of corrugated paper has reached 5725 yuan/ton, and the average price of cardboard has exceeded 6000 yuan, reaching 6250 yuan/ton. With the approach of "double 1 1", many analysts believe that paper prices still have the power to rise.
It's not just the express delivery industry that has been hit. The rise in the prices of corrugated paper and paperboard stems from the rise in the prices of these two paper-making raw materials-waste paper. This pressure from the upstream is continuously transmitted to the downstream of the industrial chain like dominoes, and the prices of base paper, cardboard and cartons are also rising.
Related industries and enterprises can be described as several happy families: just when the express delivery giants were in a dilemma about whether to raise prices, the profits of several paper products enterprises in the upstream soared and their stock prices collectively took off, while the small and medium-sized carton factories caught in the middle were overwhelmed by the lack of bargaining power and their lives were hanging by a thread. Who is the winner under the shock wave of rising paper prices? Who will be out?
Waste paper is more expensive than scrap iron.
At present, 70% of China's papermaking raw materials come from waste paper, of which 36% are imported.
In 20 16, the state accelerated the elimination of backward production capacity in the paper packaging industry. Before the G20 summit in September, paper enterprises in seven provinces and cities in East China and North China stopped production or limited production. Coupled with the increase in transportation costs, RMB depreciation and other factors, the price of waste paper has entered an obvious upward channel since September 20 16.
In 20 17, the state further introduced the waste restriction policy, and the price of waste paper rose sharply compared with last year. In July, the General Office of the State Council issued the Implementation Plan for Prohibiting Foreign Wastes from Entering China and Promoting the Reform of the Solid Waste Import Management System. The "Plan" not only clarifies the requirements for increasing the scale of enterprises for processing and utilizing imported waste paper and cracking down on illegally imported waste paper, but also stipulates that the import of unsorted waste paper will be completely banned from 65438+February 3 1.
At the implementation level of the "Program", at present, the country has suspended the quota distribution of imported waste paper, making the remaining imported waste paper in the hands of domestic waste paper and paper mills scarce, and the recycling price of waste paper has soared accordingly. Ms. Xia, a citizen of Beijing, told the reporter that the carton newspaper used to cost 50 cents a kilogram, but now it is sold in 56 yuan. Duan Yinman, owner of Taobao, told reporters that since the end of last year, the price of cartons has more than doubled, and the cartons provided by express outlets are more expensive, and some models of cartons are still out of stock. Media reports in many parts of the country have pointed out that the recycling price of waste paper has exceeded that of scrap steel. This also directly led to the accelerated rise in the price of base paper after August this year.
At the same time, in recent years, the Ministry of Environmental Protection has vigorously rectified the "scattered and polluted" enterprises, which has also objectively limited the papermaking capacity. Since April this year, the Ministry of Environmental Protection has carried out intensive supervision of air pollution prevention and control, and since September, it has carried out intensive supervision of air pollution control in autumn and winter. The two environmental inspections have affected the production enterprises that do not meet the environmental protection requirements in the "2+26" city of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei air pollution transmission channel stipulated in the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areas Work Plan 20 17".
In the process of contacting carton factories, the reporter found that many small carton factories have been or are facing production restriction, production suspension or closure due to the pressure of environmental protection supervision. Cartons are in short supply, and the price of express cartons is facing upward pressure.
While the price of cartons is rising, the price of paper express bags widely used in the express delivery industry is also rising. Unlike cartons, the upstream raw material of paper express bags is pulp.
According to Chang Junting, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang Information, most of the pulp in China is imported, and the price of pulp has maintained a rapid growth as the price of waste paper, due to the rise of US dollars and the increase of import costs this year, as well as the increase of transportation costs and the price increase of paper mills.
According to the market price changes of important means of production in the circulation field of the National Bureau of Statistics, Caijing calculated that the price of pulp rose by 56.07% from the first ten days of September 20 16 to the first ten days of June 20 17.
Feast of upstream papermaking enterprises
Before this round of rise, paper prices had been depressed for many years. Due to the economic stimulus policy after the financial crisis in 2008, the supply of raw paper has been exceeding the demand since 2009, and the average price has been decreasing year by year by 200 yuan -300 yuan/ton, until the supply and demand situation reversed again in the second half of 20 16, and the paper price began to skyrocket. Thanks to the rising prices of raw materials and products in the paper industry, the upstream paper enterprises have made amazing performance and stock price performance for more than a year, becoming the biggest winner in the industrial chain in this paper price surge. The net profit of Bohui Paper, a leading papermaking enterprise, increased by 1448.49% to 404 million yuan in the first half of 20 17, and increased by 469.6% to 6 1 10,000 yuan in the first three quarters.
Caijing, according to the share price of the secondary market, counted the share price changes of several leading paper enterprises in the past year and a half. The statistics are as follows:
As of press time, paper stocks showed a slight correction from the high of 65438+1October 9. Some analysts said that this may be related to cautious investors choosing to take profits at this time; At the same time, due to the rising prices and transportation costs of raw materials such as waste paper, it is not excluded that the market is repairing the expectations of the paper industry.
Not all paper enterprises can take part in this carnival. While the upstream paper enterprises enjoy high profits and market returns, many downstream carton factories are under great pressure.
"The price of raw materials has risen sharply, but our cartons (prices) have never dared to rise." The person in charge of a small carton factory in Tongzhou District of Beijing said.
In the industrial chain of carton manufacturing, the first-level factory is the base paper enterprise, that is, those enterprises that benefit from the soaring paper price, the second-level factory is the cardboard factory, such as the enterprise that produces corrugated paper and cardboard, and the third-level factory is the carton factory. Most of the original paper mills are large paper mills, which control the pricing power of the paper industry. Paperboard factory can adjust the price immediately with the price increase of the original paper factory without facing the end customer. However, most carton factories are scattered small factories, facing the end customers. Whether to adjust the price depends on the bargaining power. Secondly, carton factories often lock the price of future cartons with customers in the form of long-term contracts, and there is no way to adjust prices easily.
Liu Yuxin, head of public relations of Jingdong Logistics, confirmed to reporters that JD.COM did not raise the purchase price of cartons because JD.COM signed a long-term (more than one year) contract with suppliers.
In the view of the person in charge of the above-mentioned carton factory, contrary to the big profits of the first-class factory and the second-class factory, the third-class factory has become a "sandwich" squeezed by upstream and downstream interests.
The person in charge also said that the increase in paper price was not only due to the national environmental protection policy, but also because the raw paper enterprises and distributors in the upper reaches of the industrial chain hoarded goods when the environmental protection policy was introduced, driving up paper prices.
The distributor of a large paper mill in Henan agrees with this view. She said: "In view of the shortage of the market, on the one hand, paper mills have reason to raise prices; On the other hand, because paper mills dare to take the opportunity to raise prices, no matter how high they rise, there are people who want them. "
The soaring price of paper has brought great pressure to many small carton enterprises. "Many first-class factories raise prices once every three to five days, sometimes even twice a day. Dealers in first-class factories even bid up paper prices by hoarding goods. As soon as the price of the first-class factory rises, the second-class factory horse rises, and the third-class factory can only bear it. " The person in charge of carton manufacturer Beijing Happy Technology said.
However, not all carton factories are unable to adjust their prices. Song Huaiming, a partner of Carton Brother, who runs the carton business, said that Carton Brother has successfully raised the price to customers within a reasonable price range.
Due to the operation of high-grade corrugated paper and low substitution box board paper, with the help of the bargaining power and supply stability of leading enterprises, Hexing Packaging (002228. SZ) also raises prices to downstream customers, thus diverting part of the cost pressure. However, the price increase of Hexing packaging still can't reach the rapid increase of raw material cost. The data shows that the company's comprehensive gross profit margin in the first half of the year fell by 2.2 percentage points to 15.4%.
Regarding the pressure faced by paper packaging enterprises such as cartons, Guo Yaping, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, explained that under the pressure of the skyrocketing price of raw materials in the upstream, although many packaging enterprises can raise the supply price to a certain extent, because they are facing large downstream customers, the price increase space is not as large as that of basic paper enterprises.
The pressure of express delivery industry
The express delivery industry is one of the largest customer sources of carton plants, and they have therefore become the next target of paper price dominoes.
"The rise in paper prices (for express delivery companies) is definitely stressful." An industry insider who has worked in international express delivery, domestic franchise and direct mode express delivery companies said. Express companies need to provide a large number of paper express bags, provide packaging such as cartons for retail investors and small enterprises, and purchase paper-related materials such as paper waybills, which are very high costs for the express delivery industry. The reason why environmental protection paper tape was not popularized before was that the express delivery industry could not afford its high cost.
"The profit of the express delivery industry has fallen rapidly in recent years, and the profit rate is very low. The price increase of express delivery service is unacceptable to the market. Any increase in cost will bring price challenges. " This industry insider believes. Feng, the business manager of Beijing, said during the "Eleventh" holiday that the freight rate of e-commerce business has not been adjusted because consumers can't accept the price increase, and only the business of large enterprise customers has a price increase of 0.65438+ between 0 yuan and 0.5 yuan.
At present, the operation modes of domestic express delivery companies are divided into two modes: outlet joining mode and direct selling mode. A number of employees in the express delivery industry said that compared with the express delivery companies in the network franchise mode, the rise in paper prices has brought greater cost pressure to the express delivery companies in the direct mode.
Express delivery companies that operate express delivery business in direct mode need headquarters to purchase express delivery packaging in a unified way and be responsible for packaging costs. For express delivery companies operating in franchise mode, 70%-80% of their business comes from e-commerce, which provides packaging including cartons; The remaining 20%-30% comes from the business of enterprises and retail investors. Large enterprises will be responsible for carton packaging, and outlets need to solve the carton packaging of small enterprises and retail investors, and also need to buy paper courier bags and other materials from headquarters.
Feng also said that the cost of making their own branded cartons is too high, and all major express delivery companies do not make their own branded cartons, so they do not have to bear the high cost brought by a large number of cartons.
Commonly known in the industry as "Three Links and One Reach" (Zhongtong, Shentong, Tong Yuan, Dayun) and Best are franchise systems, and SF Express and Jingdong Logistics under JD.COM Group conduct unified management of outlets in a direct mode.
Express companies are very cautious about the price increase, and have been holding their horses in this year's paper price increase. However, seeing the price increase of cartons, after the "Eleventh" Golden Week holiday, the courier company finally couldn't hold back and made a decision or preparation for price adjustment.
So far, the price adjustment has been announced by the affiliated companies, and the outlets of the affiliated companies are responsible for purchasing cartons themselves, and the use of cartons is small. The direct selling company has not adjusted the price for the time being. This actually reflects the situation of "ice and fire" between the headquarters of the courier company and the franchise outlets.
Headquarters can get "blood transfusion" from the capital market, which can avoid the impact of rising costs, but outlets need to purchase materials from headquarters and outside. Under the double pressure of rising paper price and low-price competition strategy, franchisees have reached the point where they have to raise the express delivery price.
Li Shasha, head of Zhongtong's public relations, said that after the price increase of cartons, Zhongtong outlets generally began to charge express delivery fees and packaging fees respectively, and consumers could choose whether to provide express packaging. In other words, consumers who choose express delivery companies to provide packaging need to bear the cost of express delivery price increase.
Up to now, the news that SF, another giant in the express delivery industry, does not raise prices has come out. Wang, the head of the company's public relations, said that the increase in the price of cartons driven by paper prices has a certain impact on the company's total operating costs, but the cost of cartons is only a small part of the total cost, so it will not lead to an increase in freight or end products.
In this regard, Dai Yuanyuan, editor of Express magazine, explained that compared with the express delivery company in franchise mode, the direct SF Express has higher profit and can withstand the pressure of price increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of 20 17 was188.4 billion yuan, much higher than that of peers.
Who pays for the soaring paper price?
Express companies are not the end of the industrial chain. The customers they serve mainly come from the field of e-commerce, among which the most affected are individual merchants such as Taobao shopkeepers and WeChat merchants. Taobao shopkeepers who need to buy cartons directly from the carton factory generally said in an interview that although the price of cartons has risen, considering the price sensitivity of consumers, they dare not easily increase the postage conditions.
Mr. Jiao, a WeChat merchant selling pomegranate, said that the price of air cartons rose from one in 6 yuan to 10 yuan. An apple grower said that the number of cartons for transporting apples rose from one box in 2.5 yuan to one box in 4 yuan, an increase of more than 60%. "The income has decreased because the price of apples is the same as last year," he said.
E-commerce platforms such as Tmall and JD.COM are huge and have strong resistance to the price increase of cartons. However, they tried some new measures to reduce the consumption of cartons and adopted more environmentally friendly measures to solve the impact of rising paper prices. The rise in paper prices, which started with environmental protection, seems to be playing a positive role in promoting the downstream of the industry to respond in an environmentally friendly way.
Liu Yuxin said that JD.COM has successfully reduced the use of hundreds of millions of cartons by simplifying packaging and using recycled packaging bags and fully degradable packaging bags. By replacing A5 paper with three layers of electronic paper (saving more than 5,000 tons of paper every year) and reducing the size of logistics labels (saving tens of millions of square meters of paper every year), paper consumption is further reduced.
SF also reduces its dependence on paper through similar methods, such as optimizing packaging materials and promoting electronic waybills. At present, SF has invested 654.38+0.5 billion new reusable foam boxes.
Alibaba's rookie network, which provides express platform services, is also trying to cope with the price increase of cartons and ensure the supply of cartons for Tmall and Taobao e-commerce. Niu Zhijing, head of green action of Cainiao.com, said that carton recycling will be the key environmental protection action of Cainiao's "double 1 1" this year.
Niu Zhijing said that taking Hangzhou as an example, at present, the express delivery industry recycles, disinfects and reuses more than 10000 waste paper boxes every week. In addition, novices are also using data algorithms to match the correct cargo containers, thus reducing the use of paper.
Some people in the industry are also worried about the high cost of environmental protection. Xu Yong, chief consultant of Express Logistics Consulting Network, said that the recycling cost of cartons is too high.
In this regard, Niu Zhijing said that "there will be no cost passed on to the courier company". The rookie network has a special fund for environmental protection. At present, the reservoir has a capital of 300 million yuan to provide subsidies for enterprises that cooperate with environmental protection measures. Liu Yuxin also said that JD.COM has special funds to promote environmental protection practice.
Will paper prices continue to rise?
After the "Eleventh", the price of waste paper finally ended its continuous rise and fell sharply, which was transmitted from Guangdong to the whole country. Xu Ling, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, believes that on the one hand, the sales of finished paper have slowed down, and the demand for waste paper as raw materials has also decreased; On the other hand, some paper mills choose to stop collecting waste paper in order to avoid the excessive pressure of purchasing waste paper, which leads to the panic shipment of other paper mills and waste paper packaging stations. However, Xu Ling believes that the current decline is only phased. In fact, the price of waste paper rebounded again from1October 22, 65438. Take nine dragons paper as an example, the price of waste paper fell to 1800 yuan/ton before, and rose to 2 150 yuan/ton as of1October 24th, with a cumulative increase of 350 yuan/ton.
Admittedly, the price of paper is still on the rise. From the demand side, the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for purchasing cartons, and the upcoming shopping tides of "double 1 1" and "double 12" and the rising consumption before the end of the year will push up the paper price.
On the supply side, in view of the weak expectation that the country approved the new quota of imported waste paper in the fourth quarter, it is expected that the price increase trend of waste paper will be difficult to reverse in the short term. The national environmental protection policy also stipulates that China will greatly reduce the types and quantities of unsorted waste paper before the end of 20 19, so analysts generally believe that the quota of imported waste paper will remain tight in 20 18, and the paper price will rise.
Xu Yong said that if paper prices continue to put pressure on the express delivery industry, express delivery and e-commerce will still adjust the express delivery fee. The person in charge of Happy Technology believes that the rise in paper prices will eventually be passed on to the sales price of products, and then consumers will pay the bill.
Wu Jie, a Taobao buyer, said that under normal circumstances, consumers would not feel that the rise in paper prices was passed on to the rise in commodity prices, because the prices of many e-commerce products would change in each batch.
The reporter asked the consumers who came to pick up the parcel at the express collection point of Taiyueyuan Community in Beijing whether to accept the express delivery or accept the price increase of the purchased goods. Many consumers said that as long as the increase is not big, they can accept the price increase driven by environmental protection policies. "Raising a few dollars is a trivial matter. The key is to look at the environment and see if the air quality can be improved. " A consumer told reporters this way.