China is the birthplace of diplomatic strategy. During the Warring States period, the great strategic thought of "making friends far away and attacking near" was formed. Diplomacy is a continuation of domestic politics, but it is different from internal affairs. To learn diplomacy and formulate foreign policy, we need to know ourselves and know ourselves. We must base ourselves on a deep understanding of the general trend of the world and the national conditions of all countries, and we must never measure others according to our own needs or simply "repay evil with kindness". In the international struggle, a country's position in the world depends not only on its comprehensive political, economic and military strength, but also on what kind of diplomatic strategy it adopts. Clever diplomatic means can make up for the lack of a country's strength to a considerable extent.
The essence of diplomacy is that all countries in the world pursue the maximization of state power, that is, national interests. Therefore, the guiding ideology of foreign relations must be that national interests are above everything else. The basic principles of handling international relations originated in the West. In the process of the rise of capitalism, western countries have waged fierce struggles for the hegemony of colonies, Europe and even the world. In order to seek their own best interests, European countries frequently engage in wars and diplomatic activities. The judgment and choice of allies and enemies varies from time to time and depends entirely on the requirements of national interests at that time. Western diplomatic practice follows machiavellianism and social Darwinism. After independence, the vast number of developing countries, once western colonies, also followed this guiding ideology and practice when dealing with international relations. Therefore, the supremacy of national interests has become the norm for almost all countries to formulate and implement foreign policies.
After World War II, colonial countries gained independence one after another, which broke the situation that western powers dominated the world for a long time, but it did not fundamentally change the dominant position of big and powerful countries in the world. The so-called "weak countries have no diplomacy" is in its static sense. If the strength of the two countries is very different and the weak countries lack sufficient diplomatic resources, there is really not much room for manoeuvre, such as Panama versus the United States; Although there is a gap in strength between the two countries, if the weak countries are United internally, strong-willed, have a wide international influence, and dare to confront the strong countries, the strong countries, such as Cuba, will not take the slightest advantage. The contrast between a strong country and a weak country does not mean that there is an absolute gap in all aspects, so a weak country is not necessarily weak, and a strong country is not necessarily strong. The struggle between control and anti-control, containment and anti-containment between powerful countries and weak countries does not hinder a certain degree of cooperation between them. This kind of cooperation just reflects the game relationship between different countries in various interests in the complex pattern of international relations, that is, a contest of diplomatic wisdom based on strength.
Therefore, we must clearly understand the characteristics and laws of our opponents' international behaviors, ways of thinking, national psychology and corresponding diplomatic strategies. Only in this way can we effectively and maximally realize our national interests.
New China's diplomacy is still influenced by traditional Confucianism to varying degrees, such as "paying more attention to face than practical interests" and "harmony is more important". For example, "shelving disputes" reflects China's wishful desire for peace in resolving sovereignty disputes, while other countries pursue social Darwinism and "value real benefits over face". It is a fait accompli that other countries have effectively controlled the disputed areas for a long time, thus completely defeating China's wishes.
Second, China's current strategic environment
China's international environment is very unfavorable, and it is surrounded by strong neighbors. There is a powerful neighbor Russia in the north, a hostile Japan-US alliance in the east, and an old enemy India in the southwest. The maritime land in the southeast and south has been repeatedly violated, and the maritime traffic line is under the potential threat of Japan and the United States. China's current strategy is: China and Russia confront Japan and the United States; Engage in equidistant diplomacy between the United States and Russia (economic diplomacy emphasizes the United States and security diplomacy emphasizes Russia); Between Japan and the United States, China's diplomatic strategy is not clear. Before 1996, it once took the initiative of uniting Japan to control the United States. When dealing with other neighboring countries, they try to avoid conflicts and advocate solving territorial disputes through political negotiations; For disputed marine land, we hold the attitude of "shelving disputes and jointly developing".
Sino-Russian friendship is a limited cooperative relationship formed temporarily in the face of the threat of Japan-US alliance in the Far East for the needs of both sides' internal affairs and diplomacy. Both countries are in a difficult period of reform, and both want the West economically, so they keep a low profile in politics and diplomacy, and both put the development of relations with the West, especially with the United States, at the top of their diplomatic relations. The economic interests of China, Russia and the West far exceed the economic complementarity of the two countries, so it is impossible for the two countries to completely deal with global problems unless their national security is seriously threatened by a third country. 1In March 1999, NATO launched an air war in Kosovo, which seriously violated Russia's security interests in Southeast Europe. On the other hand, if the United States pursues hegemonic success through humanitarian intervention, it will mean that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of China, a multinational country that has not yet been unified, will directly face more severe challenges. In other words, the United States will certainly do the same, further troubling China on the issues of Tibet, Xinjiang and Taiwan Province Province. If China and Russia earnestly practice the connotation of the "strategic cooperative partnership" between the two countries and cooperate closely, it is entirely possible to force the United States to accept a humiliating truce and accept a peaceful solution jointly proposed by China and Russia. This will greatly enhance the international status and influence of China and Russia, and deal a heavy blow to the arrogant ambition of the United States to maintain "one-pole hegemony", which will have a positive impact on the security of the vast non-western world and promote the process of multipolarization. However, China's appeasement towards NATO's aggression has important indirect interests with China itself. Not only that, but also took the initiative to make major concessions in the form of so-called "appeasement diplomacy" in exchange for the United States agreeing to China's accession to the WTO. As a result, the United States easily grasped China's bottom line on the Kosovo war and China's accession to the WTO, so it increased the scale of bombing Yugoslavia even more brazenly and extorted China on the WTO issue. Therefore, Russia was full of doubts about China, so it changed its tough attitude and turned to cooperate with the West. The United States does not want to push Russia too hard, but it is still a military power. Immediately resume loans, support Russia's peaceful mediation in Yugoslavia, and partially recognize Russia's special interests in the Balkans, including acquiescing Russian troops to seize the Kosovo airport to appease Russia. As a result of the tripartite game between China, the United States and Russia, the war ended gracefully in the form of a Security Council resolution on the basis of the cooperation between the United States and Russia and the foreign ministers' agreement reached by seven western countries plus Russia. China, on the other hand, got nothing and was completely excluded from this process. At the same time, it also suffered the humiliation that the United States deliberately bombed China's embassy in Yugoslavia. This is the direct result of the obvious short-sightedness of diplomatic strategy, because the time and space for economic development at the expense of the extrusion of diplomatic space and the gradual advancement of western powers will be limited, and then the increasingly severe international living environment will be faced with increasing pressure from the West.
Different from the traditional international struggle with military and politics as the main means, after the Cold War, especially after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the United States took the protection of human rights as an ideological weapon to gain the commanding heights of international morality, and at the same time used trade and investment as bait to make its opponents form strong economic dependence, thus effectively disintegrating potential hostile alliances. What is even worse for China is that after the new Russian government took office, it implemented the general plan of governing the country, focusing on internal affairs and focusing on developing diplomatic relations with western countries. President Putin is resolute and cold, resourceful and ambitious. At the beginning of taking office, the military cooperation with India was strengthened in an all-round way, but the "Russian-Chinese strategic partnership" was only perfunctory, reflecting Russia's long-term strategic intention in Asia and its distrust of China. China's actions in the Kosovo crisis not only seriously damaged its own interests, but also alienated a partner who is not yet stable but may become an important strategic ally of China in a certain period of time. To sum up, the foundation for establishing strategic cooperative relations between China and Russia is actually not solid. As two big countries are adjacent, long-term geopolitical goals cannot be consistent. Russia is a country with an expansionist tradition and strong national chauvinism. In the long run, Russia does not want to see a strong China rise in its southern wing. Russia has been actively supporting India to contain China from the southwest wing. In order to strategically stabilize the situation on the Korean Peninsula and seek peaceful reunification, South Korea is actively developing its relations with China. However, it is believed that there is a territorial dispute with China, and its land boundary (unified boundary) should extend to a part of northeast China. It believes that the existing border between China and North Korea is the result of 1950-53 North Korea's concession to China during the Korean War. In the mid-1990s, South Korea and Japan privately agreed to divide the marine exclusive economic zone, and the part of the exclusive zone opposite to China was included in their respective jurisdictions. The exclusive economic zones of South Korea and Japan also overlap and face each other in a large area, but the land area of the two countries is equivalent to that of Japan. To divide the boundaries of exclusive zones relative to the current national reunification, we must strive for China's cooperation, while Japan is doing everything possible to contain China. However, Korea and Japan depend on each other and add chips to each other in competing for marine resources with me. Japan and Japan have deliberately different attitudes on historical issues, netting South Korea and ignoring China, so as to divide them. Its essence is to concentrate on dealing with China.
The situation on the Korean peninsula is full of variables. Although the North-South Summit in June 2000 was marked by rejecting the intervention of big powers and striving for peaceful reunification independently, the four neighboring countries (China, Russia, Japan and the United States) and their mutual relations will still have an important impact on the internal affairs and diplomacy of the North and the South for quite some time to come. Maintaining the status quo on the peninsula and stabilizing North Korea is of great security interest to China. Since the 1970s, Sino-US reconciliation, the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea, and China's active cooperation with the United States on the peninsula security issue have aroused great dissatisfaction and disgust from North Korea. Especially when China's strategic environment became increasingly unfavorable in the 1990s, China did not take timely compensation measures, resolutely seized the opportunity of Soviet forces withdrawing from North Korea, and tried its best to hold on to North Korea. However, it is afraid of the internal pressure of the 1989 incident and the great changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. It looks inward and buries itself in the economy. "Refusing the flag" in diplomacy, and fully cooperating with the United States on issues such as the United Nations sending troops to Iraq, in exchange for the early lifting of economic sanctions by the United States and other western countries.
However, once North Korea leaves me, my security shield and bargaining chip with the United States on security issues in Northeast Asia will be completely lost. The recent opening of a new diplomatic situation in North Korea foreshadows this prospect.
On the issue of reunification, the long-term goal of the North and South sides of the Korean Peninsula is the same, that is, to stand tall in the world as a unified and powerful Korean nation-state. Recently, however, the intentions of the two sides are diametrically opposed, and South Korea hopes to complete national reunification as soon as possible through peaceful exchanges. It is more likely that North Korea hopes to get rid of its economic and diplomatic difficulties by promoting reunification by itself. For North Korea, reunification needs a certain material foundation, that is, its economic strength is greatly improved, which is in line with North Korea's practical interests, because the huge differences between the two sides in system and economic and social development level are enough to constitute a major practical obstacle to reunification, unless North Korea is willing to be integrated by South Korea, which has political and economic advantages. In North Korea, charismatic political leaders, national ideology and highly centralized political system are integrated. Due to the long-term economic recession and diplomatic isolation, how to balance the open economy, relax social control and keep correct thinking is a dilemma in decision-making. The realization of economic prosperity inevitably requires reforming the current national political and economic system, relaxing social control and gradually opening up. This will soon develop into a question about the mainstream ideology of the country and the legitimacy of the regime. In order to prevent social disorder, the rulers had to cut off or restrict the input of foreign ideas, which led to the intermittent process of reunification. Whether North Korea can gradually carry out reform and opening up without losing control, or whether there will be a sudden collapse of the regime leading to early reunification, is still unknown. But one thing is certain: once the peninsula is unified, a nationalist middle power will rise in the east of China; The territorial issue between China and South Korea is bound to be prominent, and South Korea will definitely introduce American forces from its own geostrategic considerations to counter China and Russia.